Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T05:59:36.008Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Pressman-Wildavsky Paradox: Four Addenda or Why Models Based on Probability Theory Can Predict Implementation Success and Suggest Useful Tactical Advice for Implementers

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 November 2008

Elinor R. Bowen
Elinor R. Bowen
Affiliation:
Department of Political ScienceUniversity of Illinoisat Chicago Circle
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Pressman and Wildavsky's Implementation occupies center stage in the developing literature about policy implementation, in part because of the analogy they drew between implementation processes and the multiplicative model from probability theory. This paper takes the relevance of probability theory further and considers the additive model from probability theory and conditional probabilities as well as the multiplicative model. This expanded coverage of probability theorems (1) leads to markedly increased optimism about the likelihood of successful implementation, (2) encompasses empirically reasonable tactics such as persistence, packaging of clearances, engineering bandwagons and policy reduction, and (3) generates advice to hopeful implementers – some of it non-obvious.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 2 , Issue 1 , February 1982 , pp. 1 - 21
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1982

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Bailey, Stephen K. and Mosher, Edith K. (1968) ESEA: The Office of Education Administers a Law. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press.Google Scholar
Eugene, Bardach (1977) The Implementation Game. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Blalock, Hubert M. Jr, (1979) Social Statistics, revised second edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Blau, Peter M. and Scott, W. Richard (1962) Formal Organizations. San Francisco: Chandler.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Michael D. and March, James G. (1974) Leadership and Ambiguity New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Martha, Derthick (1972) New Towns in-Town, Washington DC: The Urban Institute.Google Scholar
Gross, Neal, Giancquinta, Joseph B. and Bernstein, Marilyn (1971) Implementing Organizational Innovations. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Herbert, Kaufman (1960) The Forest Ranger, Baltimore: John Hopkins.Google Scholar
Lambright, W. Henry (1967) Shooting Down the Nuclear Plant. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill.Google Scholar
Giandomenico, Majone, and Wildavsky, Aaron (1979) Implementation as evolution. In Pressman, J. L. and Wildavsky, W., Implementation, Berkeley: University of California Press, 2nd edition, 177–94.Google Scholar
Nakamura, Robert T. and Smallwood, Frank (1980) The Politics of Policy Implementation New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Richard, Neustadt (1980) Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership from FDR to Carter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Gary, Orfield (1969) The Reconstruction of Southern Education: Schools and the 1964 Civil Rights Act. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Padgett, John F. (1980) Managing garbage can hierarchies, Administrative Science Quarterly, 25, 583–604.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pressman, Jeffrey L. and Wildavsky, Aaron (1973) Implementation. Berkeley: University of California Press. (2nd edition, 1979).Google Scholar
Martin, Rein and Rabinowitz, Francine F. (1978) Implementation: a theoretical perspective. In Burnham, and Weinberg, (eds.) American Politics and Public Policy, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Sapolsky, Harvey J. (1972) The Polaris Missile System Development. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. (1960) The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Max, Weber (1968) The Theory of Social and Economic Organization. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar