Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-hvd4g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-05T14:43:49.572Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

How to measure public demand for policies when there is no appropriate survey data?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Bianca Oehl ,
Lena Maria Schaffer  and
Thomas Bernauer
Bianca Oehl
Affiliation:
Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS), ETH Zurich, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]
Lena Maria Schaffer
Affiliation:
Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Konstanz, Germany E-mail: [email protected]
Thomas Bernauer
Affiliation:
Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS), ETH Zurich, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Explanatory models accounting for variation in policy choices by democratic governments usually include a demand (by the public) and a supply (by the government) component, whereas the latter component is usually better developed from a measurement viewpoint. The main reason is that public opinion surveys, the standard approach to measuring public demand, are expensive, difficult to implement simultaneously for different countries for purposes of crossnational comparison and impossible to implement ex post for purposes of longitudinal analysis if survey data for past time periods are lacking. We therefore propose a new approach to measuring public demand, focussing on political claims made by nongovernmental actors and expressed in the news. To demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of our measure of published opinion, we focus on climate policy in the time period between 1995 and 2010. When comparing the new measure of published opinion with the best available public opinion survey and internet search data, it turns out that our data can serve as a meaningful proxy for public demand.

Keywords

climate policyGoogle Trendspolitical claims analysispublic demandpublic opinion survey
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 37 , Issue 2 , June 2017 , pp. 173 - 204
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press, 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ahchong, K. and Dodds, R. (2012) Anthropogenic Climate Change Coverage in Two Canadian Newspapers, the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail, from 1988 to 2007. Environmental Science and Policy 15(1): 48–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andrewsa, K. T. and Caren, N. (2010) Making the News: Movement Organizations, Media Attention, and the Public Agenda. American Sociological Review 75(6): 841–866.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ayoubkhani, D. (2012) An Investigation Into Using Google Trends as an Administrative Data Source in ONS. Paper presented at the Conference of European Statisticians, Seminar on New Frontiers for Statistical Data Collection, Geneva, 31 October–2 November, pp. 1–11.Google Scholar
Bättig, M. B. and Bernauer, T. (2009) National Institutions and Global Public Goods: Are Democracies More Cooperative in Climate Change Policy? International Organization 63(2): 281–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernauer, T., Jahn, D., Kuhn, P. M. and Walter, S. (2014) Einführung in die Politikwissenschaft. Baden-Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
Bernauer, T., Kalbhenn, A., Koubi, V. and Spilker, G. (2010) A Comparison of International and Domestic Sources of Global Governance Dynamics. British Journal of Political Science 40(3): 509–538.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernauer, T. and Schaffer, L. (2012) Climate Change Governance. In Levi-Faur D. (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Governance. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 441–454.Google Scholar
Boykoff, M. T. (2007) Flogging a Dead Norm? Newspaper Coverage of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the United States and United Kingdom from 2003 to 2006. Area 39(4): 470–481.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boykoff, M. T. and Mansfield, M. (2008) “Ye Olde Hot Aire”: Reporting on Human Contributions to Climate Change in the UK Tabloid Press. Environmental Research Letters 3(2): 1–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brechin, S. R. and Bhandari, M. (2011) Perceptions of Climate Change Worldwide. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(6): 871–885.Google Scholar
Breunig, C. (2014) Content and Dynamics of Legislative Agendas in Germany. In Green-Pedersen C. and Walgrave S. (eds.), Agenda Setting, Policies, and Political Systems. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 125–163.Google Scholar
Brewer, T. L. (2005) US Public Opinion on Climate Change Issues: Implications for Consensus-Building and Policymaking. Climate Policy 4(4): 359–376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brossard, D., Shanahan, J. and McComas, K. (2004) Are Issue-Cycles Culturally Constructed? A Comparison of French and American Coverage of Global Climate Change. Mass Communication and Society 7(3): 359–377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brulle, R., Carmichael, J. and Jenkins, C. (2012) Shifting Public Opinion on Climate Change: An Empirical Assessment of Factors Influencing Concern Over Climate Change in the U.S., 2002-2010. Climatic Change 114(2): 169–188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burstein, P. (2003) The Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy: A Review and an Agenda. Political Research Quarterly 56(1): 29–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burstein, P. (2006) Why Estimates of the Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy are Too High: Empirical and Theoretical Implications. Social Forces 84(4): 2273–2289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carvalho, A. and Burgess, J. (2005) Cultural Circuits of Climate Change in U.K. Broadsheet Newspapers, 1985-2003. Risk Analysis 25(6): 1457–1469.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chaqués-Bonafont, L. and Baumgartner, F. R. (2013) Newspaper Coverage of Politics in a Partisan Media System. The Case of Spain. Journal of Public Policy 33(1): 65–88.Google Scholar
Chaqués-Bonafont, L., Palau, A. and Baumgartner, F. R. (2015) Agenda Dynamics in Spain. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Choi, H. and Varian, H. (2012) Predicting the Present with Google Trends. Economic Record 88: 2–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chyi, H. I. and McCombs, M. (2004) Media Salience and the Process of Framing: Coverage of the Columbine School Shootings. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly 81(1): 22–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, J., Tsfati, Y. and Sheafer, T. (2008) The Influence of Presumed Media Influence in Politics: Do Politicians’ Perceptions of Media Power Matter? Public Opinion Quarterly 72(2): 331–344.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, F. L., Tyler, T. R., Goetz, E. G., Gordon, M. T., Protess, D., Leff, D. R. and Molotch, H. L. (1983) Media and Agenda Setting: Effects on the Public, Interest Group Leaders, Policy Makers, and Policy. Public Opinion Quarterly 47(1): 16–35.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dahl, R. A. (1971) Polyarchy, Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Wang, H. and Wheeler, D. (2002) Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 16(1): 147–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davison, W. (1983) The Third-Person Effect in Communication. Public Opinion Quarterly 47(1): 1–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Denham, B. E. (2014) Intermedia Attribute Agenda Setting in the New York Times: The Case of Animal Abuse in U.S. Horse Racing. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly 91(1): 17–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Donner, S. D. and McDaniels, J. (2013) The Influence of National Temperature Fluctuations on Opinions About Climate Change in the U.S. Since 1990. Climatic Change 118(3–4): 537–550.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A. (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. Boston, MA: Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
Fisher, D. R., Leifeld, P. and Iwaki, Y. (2012) Mapping the Ideological Networks of American Climate Politics. Climatic Change 116(3–4): 523–545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frank, D. J. (1999) The Social Bases of Environmental Treaty Ratification, 1900-1990. Sociological Inquiry 69(4): 523–550.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fredriksson, P. G. and Millimet, D. L. (2004) Electoral Rules and Environmental Policy. Economics Letters 84(2): 237–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gamson, W. A. and Modigliani, A. (1989) Media Discourse and Public Opinion on Nuclear Power: A Constructionist Approach. American Journal of Sociology 95(1): 1–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golan, G. (2006) Inter-Media Agenda Setting and Global News Coverage. Journalism Studies 7(2): 323–333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Google (2014) Where Trends Data Comes From, https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4355213?hl=en (accessed 5 June 2014).Google Scholar
Gunther, A. C. (1998) The Persuasive Press Inference: Effects of Mass Media on Perceived Public Opinion. Communication Research 25(5): 486–504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gunther, A. C. and Storey, J. D. (2003) The Influence of Presumed Influence. Journal of Communication 53(2): 199–215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Habel, P. D. (2012) Following the Opinion Leaders? The Dynamics of Influence Among Media Opinion, the Public, and Politicians. Political Communication 29(3): 257–277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herbst, S. (1993) Numbered Voices. How Opinion Polling has Shaped American Politics. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Herbst, S. (1998) Reading Public Opinion: How Political Actors View the Democratic Process. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Howland, D., Becker, M. and Prelli, L. (2006) Merging Content Analysis and the Policy Sciences: A System to Discern Policy-Specific Trends from News Media Reports. Policy Sciences 39(3): 205–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobs, L. R. and Shapiro, R. Y. (2000) Politicians Don’t Pander. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kahn, M. E. and Kotchen, M. J. (2011) Business Cycle Effects on Concern About Climate Change: The Chilling Effect of Recession. Climate Change Economics 2(3): 257–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, S. Y. and Wolinsky-Nahmias, Y. (2014) Cross-National Public Opinion on Climate Change: The Effects of Affluence and Vulnerability. Global Environmental Politics 14: 79–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopmans, R. (2004) Movements and Media: Selection Processes and Evolutionary Dynamics in the Public Sphere. Theory and Society 33: 367–391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopmans, R. (2007) Who Inhabits the European Public Sphere? Winners and Losers, Supporters and Opponents in Europeanised Political Debates. European Journal of Political Research 46(2): 183–210.Google Scholar
Koopmans, R. and Statham, P. (1999) Political Claims Analysis: Integrating Protest Event and Political Ciscourse Approaches. Mobilization: An International Quarterly 4: 203–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopmans, R. and Statham, P. (2010) Theoretical Framework, Research Design and Methods. In Koopmans R. and Statham P. (eds.), The Making of a European Public Sphere. Media Discourse and Political Contention. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 34–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krosnick, J., Holbrook, A., Lowe, L. and Visser, P. (2006) The Origins and Consequences of Democratic Citizens’ Policy Agendas: A Study of Popular Concern About Global Warming. Climatic Change 77(1): 7–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lakoff, G. (2010) Why it Matters How We Frame the Environment. Environmental Communication: A Journal of Nature and Culture 4(1): 70–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, H. S. (2014) Analyzing the Multidirectional Relationships Between the President, News Media, and the Public: Who Affects Whom? Political Communication 31(2): 259–281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luntz, F. (2003) The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America. The Luntz Research Companies, Straight Talk. Unpublished Memo, 131–146.Google Scholar
McCombs, M. and Shaw, D. (1972) The Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media. Public Opinion Quarterly 36(2): 176–187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McLeod, J. M., Becker, L. B. and Byrnes, J. E. (1974) Another Look at the Agenda-Setting Function of the Press. Communication Research 1(2): 131–166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mellon, J. (2014) Internet Search Data and Issue Salience: The Properties of Google Trends as a Measure of Issue Salience. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24(1): 45–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, D. (1998) Impersonal Influence. How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neumayer, E. (2002) Do Democracies Exhibit Stronger International Environmental Commitment? A Cross-Country Analysis. Journal of Peace Research 39(2): 139–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neumayer, E. (2003) Are Left-Wing Party Strength and Corporatism Good for the Environment? Evidence from Panel Analysis of Air Pollution in OECD Countries. Ecological Economics 45(2): 203–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nisbet, M. C. and Myers, T. (2007) The Polls – Trends – Twenty Years of Public Opinion About Global Warming. Public Opinion Quarterly 71(3): 444–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oehl, B. (2015) Public Demand and Climate Change Policy Making in OECD Countries – From Dynamics of the Demand to Policy Responsiveness, ETH Zürich Nr. 22537, http://ecollection.library.ethz.ch/view/eth:47706 (accessed 5 August 2016).Google Scholar
Olson, M. (1965) The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Pelc, K. J. (2013) Googling the WTO: What Search-Engine Data Tell Us About the Political Economy of Institutions. International Organization 67(3): 629–655.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Perloff, R. M. (1993) Third-Person Effect Research 1983–1992: A Review and Synthesis. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 5(2): 167–184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. E. (2002) Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. Boston, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Peter, J. and Lauf, E. (2002) Reliability in Cross-National Content Analysis. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly 79(4): 815–832.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powlick, P. (1995) The Sources of Public Opinion for American Foreign Policy Officials. International Studies Quarterly 39(4): 427–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ripberger, J. T. (2011) Capturing Curiosity: Using Internet Search Trends to Measure Public Attentiveness. Policy Studies Journal 39(2): 239–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, T. J., Parks, B. C. and Vásquez, A. A. (2004) Who Ratifies Environmental Treaties and Why? Institutionalism, Structuralism and Participation by 192 Nations in 22 Treaties. Global Environmental Politics 4(3): 22–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sampei, Y. and Aoyagi-Usui, M. (2009) Mass-Media Coverage, its Influence on Public Awareness of Climate-Change Issues, and Implications for Japan’s National Campaign to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Global Environmental Change 19(2): 203–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schaffer, L. (2011) Voluntary Climate Change Initiatives in the U.S.: Analyzing Participation in Space and Time, ETH Zürich Nr. 19475, http://e-collection.library.ethz.ch/view/eth:2712?q= (accessed 5 August 2016).Google Scholar
Scharkow, M. and Vogelgesang, J. (2011) Measuring the Public Agenda Using Search Engine Queries. International Journal of Public Opinion 23(1): 104–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmidt, A., Ivanova, A. and Schäfer, M. S. (2013) Media Attention for Climate Change Around the World: A Comparative Analysis of Newspaper Coverage in 27 Countries. Global Environmental Change 23(5): 1233–1248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spilker, G. (2011) Helpful Organizations: Membership in Inter-Governmental Organizations and Environmental Quality in Developing Countries. British Journal of Political Science 42(2): 345–370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stamm, K. R., Clark, F. and Eblacas, P. R. (2000) Mass Communication and Public Understanding of Environmental Problems: The Case of Global Warming. Public Understanding of Science 9: 219–237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, J. A. (1999) Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Sun, Y., Pan, Z. and Shen, L. (2008) Understanding the Third-Person Perception: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis. Journal of Communication 58(2): 280–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vliegenthart, R., Schuck, A. R. T., Boomgaarden, H. G. and De Vreese, C. H. (2008) News Coverage and Support for European Integration, 1990-2006. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 20(4): 415–439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vliegenthart, R. and Walgrave, S. (2008) The Contingency of Intermedia Agenda Setting: A Longitudinal Study in Belgium. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly 85(4): 860–877.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wallsten, K. (2007) Agenda Setting and the Blogosphere: An Analysis of the Relationship Between Mainstream Media and Political Blogs. Review of Policy Research 24(6): 567–587.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weingart, P., Engels, A. and Pansegrau, P. (2000) Risks of Communication: Discourses on Climate Change in Science, Politics, and the Mass Media. Public Understanding of Science 9(3): 261–283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Young, L. and Soroka, S. (2012) Affective News: The Automated Coding of Sentiment in Political Texts. Political Communication 29(2): 205–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, J. (1992) The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhao, X. (2009) Media Use and Global Warming Perceptions. Communication Research 36(5): 698–723.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Oehl supplementary material

Appendix A

Download Oehl supplementary material(File)
File 50.1 KB
Supplementary material: File

Oehl supplementary material

Appendix B

Download Oehl supplementary material(File)
File 1.4 MB