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8. Volcker studied economics and history at Princeton (1945–49), attained an M.A. in Political Economy at Harvard (1949–51), which involved the study of money, banking, and public finance under eminent Keynesian Alvin Hansen, and held a scholarship at the London School of Economics (1951–52) while undertaking comparative research on UK and U.S. central banks, but he never turned this into a Harvard Ph.D. as planned. See Treaster, Paul Volcker, 97–111.

9. For Volcker’s own account, see Changing Fortunes, 59–90, 101–28.

10. Axilrod, Inside the Fed, 91–92. For Volcker’s explanation of money-control technical issues, see Transcript of Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (hereafter FOMC Transcript), 6 October 1979, 43–49, http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcmoal19791006.pdf.

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13. For Carter administration concern about this, see Charles Schultze, Memorandum for the President, “The State of the Economy and Our Inflation Problem,” 4 March 1979, SSF-PHF, box 122, JCPL.

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18. For good discussion, see Mussa, Michael, “U.S. Monetary Policy in the 1980s,” in American Economic Policy in the 1980s, ed. Feldstein, Martin (Chicago, 1994), 86–95.Google Scholar

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20. See, in particular, Hetzel, “Arthur Burns and Inflation.”

21. See, for example, Pierce, James, “The Political Economy of Arthur Burns,” Journal of Finance 34 (June 1979): 485–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kane, Edward J., “Politics and Fed Policymaking: The More Things Change, the More They Remain the Same,” Journal of Monetary Economics 6 (April 1980): 199–211CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Woolley, Monetary Politics; and Meltzer, Allan, “Origins of the Great Inflation,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 (March–April 2005): 145–75.Google Scholar

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23. Charles Schultze, Memorandum for the President, “Background for the Quadriad Meeting on April 5,” 4 April 1978, SSF-PHF, box 78, JCPL; William Miller, Statement to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, 15 December 1978, reproduced in Federal Reserve Bulletin64 (December 1978): 943–46 (943).

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26. Volcker recorded three FOMC dissenting votes against ease in this period and was uniformly in favor of keeping the federal funds rate at the target level or raising it. One analysis of his FOMC votes prior to becoming Fed chair places him 65th out of 83 (in descending order of ease) of all Federal Reserve governors and bank presidents from 1966 to 1996 in his average interest-rate preference (7.44 percent) and 63rd in his net ease dissent frequency. See Chappell, Henry W. Jr., McGregor, Rob Roy, and Vermilyea, Todd A., Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee (Cambridge, Mass., 2005), 42–44, 240–55.Google Scholar

27. Volcker and Gyohten, Changing Fortunes, 167; FOMC transcript, 20 November 1979, 30.

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29. House Committee on the Budget, Hearings on the Economic Outlook at Mid-Summer, 96th Cong., 2nd sess., 293–94. For similar views in the age of “quantitative ease,” see Volcker, Paul, “A Little Inflation Can Be a Dangerous Thing,” New York Times, 18 September 2011.Google Scholar

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31. Stein, Pivotal Decade, 226–27; Greider, Secrets of the Temple, 34–47; Biven, Jimmy Carter’s Economy, 237–40; Volcker and Gyohten, Changing Fortunes, 163–64.

32. “Monetary Policy: Paul Volcker,” in American Economic Policy in the 1980s, ed. Feldstein, 145–46; Cowan, Edward, “High-Interest Foes Fear Deeper Slump,” New York Times, 20 September 1979, 1Google Scholar; Berry, John, “Fed Lifts Discount Rate to Peak 11% on Close Vote,” Washington Post, 19 September 1979.Google Scholar

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34. Mussa, “U.S. Monetary Policy in the 1980s,” 96–97.

35. Greider, Secrets of the Temple, 119–20; Volcker and Gyohten, Changing Fortunes, 169.

36. FOMC Transcript, 6 October 1979, 5, 28.

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42. FOMC Minutes, 18 March, 6 May, and 22 May 1980; FOMC Transcript, 22 April 1980, 18.

43. FOMC Minutes, 21 October 1980; Mussa, “U.S. Monetary Policy in the 1980s,” 98–104; Volcker and Gyohten, Changing Fortunes, 173.

44. FOMC Transcript, 16 September 1980, 24.

45. FOMC Transcript, 18–19 December 1980, 62–63; “Monetary Policy: Paul Volcker,” 148 (quotation).

46. FOMC Transcripts, 2–3 February, 6–7 July, and 5–6 October 1981, 1–2 February and 29–30 March 1982 illuminate Fed thinking. See also Niskanen, Reaganomics, 162–69, and Mussa, “U.S. Monetary Policy in the 1980s,” 104–11.

47. FOMC Transcript, 18 May 1982, 27.

48. FOMC Transcript, 1–2 February 1982, 5; Volcker, “Monetary Policy,” 149.

49. FOMC Transcripts, 6–7 July 1981, 45 [Governor Fred Schultz remarks], 18 August 1981, 43, [Governor Henry Wallich quotation], 17 November 1981, 18 [Governor Lyle Gramlee remarks].

50. Judd, John P., “The Recent Decline in Velocity: Instability in Money Demand or Inflation?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review (Spring 1983): 12–19Google Scholar; Niskanen, Reaganomics, 184–89.

51. Volcker and Gyohten, Changing Fortunes, 177.

52. Urquhart and Hewson, “Unemployment Continued to Rise in 1982,” 3–4.

53. FOMC Transcript, 5 October 1982 (for Volcker remarks, see pp. 12, 31, 53); “Federal Reserve Press Release: Record of Policy Actions of FOMC Meeting, October 5, 1982,” 19 November 1982.

54. “Monetary Policy: Paul Volcker,” 146.

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60. “The President’s News Conference, February 18, 1982,” in John T. Woolley and Gerhard Peters, American Presidency Project (University of California, Santa Barbara), www.americanpresidency.org; Ronald Reagan to Justin Dart, 12 April 1982, and to Alfred Kingon, 25 June 1982, Presidential Handwriting File-Presidential Records (hereafter PHF-PR), Box 3, RRL.

61. Donald Regan testimony to U.S. Congress, Joint Economic Committee, The 1982 Economic Report of the President, 97th Cong., 2nd sess., esp. 197–228; Regan, Donald, For the Record: From Wall Street to Washington (San Diego, 1987), 171–72, 178.Google Scholar

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66. Alan Greenspan, untitled enclosure in “Briefing Book for Long Range Planning Meeting, Camp David, February 5, 1982,” WHSOC–Richard Darman Files, box 1, RRPL.

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70. Richard Wirthlin to James Baker and others, “Federal Deficits,” 30 August 1983, WHOSC–Michael Deaver Files, OA11584, RRPL; Wirthlin to Baker and others, “Major Findings of the July National Survey,” 16 July 1984, WHOSC–James Baker Files, Box 9, RRPL.

71. Volcker and Gyohten, Changing Fortunes, 178.

72. Lawrence Kudlow, Memorandum for CCEA, “Financial and Economic Update,” 18 January 1982, WHSOF–CFF, 18 January 1982, OA10972, RRPL; William Poole, Memorandum for CCEA, “Market Expectations and Monetary Policy in 1983,” 3 February 1983, and Beryl Sprinkel, Memorandum for CCEA, “Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: The Near-Term Outlook,” 17 May 1983, WHSOF–William Poole Files (hereafter WPF), OA10699, RRPL.

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76. Martin Feldstein, Memorandum for CCEA, “Is the Dollar Overvalued?” 8 April 1983, WHSOF–WPF, OA10699, RRPL. For similar views, see William Poole, Memorandum for CCEA, “The Real Rate of Interest,” 26 October 1984, and Minutes of CCEA Meeting, 30 October 1984, ibid.

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