Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T19:16:52.943Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Systematic longevity risk: to bear or to insure?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 November 2019

Ling-Ni Boon
Affiliation:
Aegon, Aegonplein 50, 2591 TV Den Haag, the Netherlands
Marie Brière*
Affiliation:
Amundi, 91 boulevard Pasteur, 75015Paris, France Université Paris Dauphine, PSL Research University, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775Paris Cedex 16, France Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim, Av. F.D. Roosevelt, 50, CP 145/1, 1050Brussels, Belgium
Bas J. M. Werker
Affiliation:
Netspar and Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000LETilburg, the Netherlands
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

Abstract

We compare two contracts for managing systematic longevity risk in retirement: a collective arrangement that distributes the risk among participants, and a market-provided annuity contract. We evaluate the contracts’ appeal with respect to the retiree's welfare, and the viability of the market solution through the financial reward to the annuity provider's equityholders. We find that individuals prefer to bear the risk under a collective arrangement than to insure it with a life insurers' annuity contract subject to insolvency risk (albeit small). Under realistic capital provision hypotheses, the annuity provider is incapable of adequately compensating its equityholders for bearing systematic longevity risk.

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aase, KK (2015) Life insurance and pension contracts I: the time additive life cycle model. ASTIN Bulletin 45, 147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ai, J, Brockett, PL, Golden, LL and Zhu, W (2017) Health state transitions and longevity effects on retirees’ optimal annuitization. Journal of Risk and Insurance 84(S1), 319343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ang, A and Maddaloni, A (2003) Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data. NBER Working Paper No. 9677, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arnott, RD and Chaves, DB (2012) Demographic changes, financial markets, and the economy. Financial Analysts Journal 68, 2346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Avanzi, B, Shen, J and Wong, B (2011) Optimal dividends and capital injections in the dual model with diffusion. ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA 41, 611644.Google Scholar
Baione, F, De Angelis, P, Menzietti, M and Tripodi, A (2017) A comparison of risk transfer strategies for a portfolio of life annuities based on RORAC. Journal of Applied Statistics 44, 18751892.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beetsma, RM, Romp, WE and Vos, SJ (2012) Voluntary participation and intergenerational risk sharing in a funded pension system. European Economic Review 56, 13101324.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blackburn, C, Hanewald, K, Olivieri, A and Sherris, M. (2017) Longevity risk management and shareholder value for a life annuity business. ASTIN Bulletin 47, 4377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Booth, H, Maindonald, J and Smith, L (2002) Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline. Population Studies 56, 325336.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bovenberg, L, Koijen, RS, Nijman, T and Teulings, C (2007) Saving and investing over the life cycle and the role of collective pension funds. De Economist 155, 347415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyle, P, Hardy, M, Mackay, A and Saunders, D (2015) Variable payout annuities. Working paper, Pension Section Research Committee.Google Scholar
Broeders, D, Mehlkopf, R, van Ool, A, et al. (2018) The economics of sharing macro-longevity risk. Working paper No. 618, De Nederlandsche Bank.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, JR, Mitchell, OS and Poterba, JM (2001) The role of real annuities and indexed bonds in an individual accounts retirement program. In Campbell, Y John and Feldstein, Martin (eds), Risk Aspects of Investment-based Social Security Reform. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, pp. 321370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cairns, AJ, Blake, D and Dowd, K (2006) A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: theory and calibration. Journal of Risk and Insurance 73, 687718.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cairns, AJ, Blake, D, Dowd, K, Coughlan, GD, Epstein, D and Khalaf-Allah, M (2011) Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 48, 355367.Google Scholar
Casella, G and Berger, RL (2002) Statistical Inference, 2nd Edn. the Wadsworth Group, Duxbury: California.Google Scholar
Chen, A and Hieber, P (2016) Optimal asset allocation in life insurance: the impact of regulation. ASTIN Bulletin 46, 605626.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, DH, Beetsma, RM, Ponds, EH and Romp, WE (2016) Intergenerational risk-sharing through funded pensions and public debt. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 15, 127159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, DH, Beetsma, RM, Broeders, DW and Pelsser, AA (2017) Sustainability of participation in collective pension schemes: an option pricing approach. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 74, 182196.Google Scholar
Cocco, JF, Gomes, FJ and Maenhout, PJ (2005) Consumption and portfolio choice over the life cycle. Review of Financial Studies 18, 491533.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, SH and Lin, Y (2007) Natural hedging of life and annuity mortality risks. North American Actuarial Journal 11, 115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cui, J, de Jong, F and Ponds, E (2011) Intergenerational risk sharing within funded pension schemes. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 10, 129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davidoff, T, Brown, JR and Diamond, PA (2005) Annuities and individual welfare. American Economic Review 95, 15731590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Denuit, M, Haberman, S and Renshaw, A (2011) Longevity-indexed life annuities. North American Actuarial Journal 15, 97111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Donnelly, C, Guillén, M and Nielsen, JP (2013) Exchanging uncertain mortality for a cost. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 52, 6576.Google Scholar
Dowd, K, Blake, D and Cairns, AJ (2011) A computationally efficient algorithm for estimating the distribution of future annuity values under interest-rate and longevity risks. North American Actuarial Journal 15, 237247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eckel, CC and Grossman, PJ (2008) Men, women and risk aversion: experimental evidence. Handbook of Experimental Economics Results 1, 10611073.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erb, CB, Harvey, CR and Viskanta, TE (1994) Forecasting international equity correlations. Financial Analysts Journal 50, 3245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feldstein, M and Ranguelova, E (2001) Individual risk in an investment-based social security system. American Economic Review 91, 11161125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filipović, D, Kremslehner, R and Muermann, A (2015) Optimal investment and premium policies under risk shifting and solvency regulation. Journal of Risk and Insurance 82, 261288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finkelstein, A and Poterba, J (2004) Adverse selection in insurance markets: policyholder evidence from the UK annuity market. Journal of Political Economy 112, 183208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frederick, S, Loewenstein, G and O'Donoghue, T (2002) Time discounting and time preference: a critical review. Journal of Economic Literature 40, 351401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Froot, KA (2007) Risk management, capital budgeting, and capital structure policy for insurers and reinsurers. Journal of Risk and Insurance 74, 273299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gatzert, N and Wesker, H (2012) The impact of natural hedging on a life insurer's risk situation. The Journal of Risk Finance 13, 396423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gatzert, N, Holzmüller, I and Schmeiser, H (2012) Creating customer value in participating life insurance. Journal of Risk and Insurance 79, 645670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gollier, C (2008) Intergenerational risk-sharing and risk-taking of a pension fund. Journal of Public Economics 92, 14631485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanewald, K, Piggott, J and Sherris, M (2013) Individual post-retirement longevity risk management under systematic mortality risk. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 52, 8797.Google Scholar
Horneff, WJ, Maurer, RH, Mitchell, OS and Stamos, MZ (2010) Variable payout annuities and dynamic portfolio choice in retirement. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 9, 163183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, H, Milevsky, MA and Salisbury, TS (2012) Optimal retirement consumption with a stochastic force of mortality. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51, 282291.Google Scholar
Human Mortality Database (2015) University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Last Accessed: 2015-03-31.Google Scholar
Investment Company Institute (2016) The US Retirement Market, Second Quarter 2016 (September). Last Accessed: 2016-10-24.Google Scholar
Jensen, MC (1968) The performance of mutual funds in the period 1945–1964. Journal of Finance 23, 389416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ji, M and Zhou, R (2017) Demographic risk in deep-deferred annuity valuation. Annals of Actuarial Science 11, 129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kimball, MS, Sahm, CR and Shapiro, MD (2008) Imputing risk tolerance from survey responses. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, 10281038.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Koijen, RS and Yogo, M (2015) The cost of financial frictions for life insurers. American Economic Review 105, 445475.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koijen, RS and Yogo, M (2016) Shadow insurance. Econometrica 84, 12651287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koijen, RS and Yogo, M (2017) The fragility of market risk insurance. SSRN Working Paper No. 2972295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koijen, RS, Nijman, TE and Werker, BJ (2011) Optimal annuity risk management. Review of Finance 15, 799.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kulenko, N and Schmidli, H (2008) Optimal dividend strategies in a Cramér–Lundberg model with capital injections. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 43, 270278.Google Scholar
Lee, RD and Carter, LR (1992) Modeling and forecasting US mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, 659671.Google Scholar
Lockwood, LM (2012) Bequest motives and the annuity puzzle. Review of Economic Dynamics 15, 226243.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Luciano, E, Regis, L and Vigna, E (2015) Single-and cross-generation natural hedging of longevity and financial risk. Journal of Risk and Insurance 84, 961986.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, I (2012) On the valuation of long-dated assets. Journal of Political Economy 120, 346358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maurer, R, Mitchell, OS, Rogalla, R and Kartashov, V (2013) Lifecycle portfolio choice with systematic longevity risk and variable investment-linked deferred annuities. Journal of Risk and Insurance 80, 649676.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maurer, R, Mitchell, OS, Rogalla, R and Siegelin, I (2016) Accounting and actuarial smoothing of retirement payouts in participating life annuities. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 71, 268283.Google Scholar
Mertens, E (2002) Comments on variance of the IID estimator in Lo (2002). Working paper.Google Scholar
Merton, RC (1969) Lifetime portfolio selection under uncertainty: the continuous-time case. Review of Economics and Statistics 51, 247257.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milevsky, MA and Salisbury, TS (2015) Optimal retirement income tontines. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 64, 91105.Google Scholar
Miller, MH and Modigliani, F (1961) Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. Journal of Business 34, 411433.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, OS and McCarthy, D (2002) Estimating international adverse selection in annuities. North American Actuarial Journal 6, 3854.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Modigliani, F and Miller, MH (1958) The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. American Economic Review 48, 261297.Google Scholar
Nielsen, LT and Vassalou, M (2004) Sharpe ratios and alphas in continuous time. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 39, 103114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pashchenko, S (2013) Accounting for non-annuitization. Journal of Public Economics 98, 5367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peijnenburg, K, Nijman, T and Werker, BJ (2017) Health cost risk: a potential solution to the annuity puzzle. Economic Journal 127, 15981625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piggott, J, Valdez, EA and Detzel, B (2005) The simple analytics of a pooled annuity fund. Journal of Risk and Insurance 72, 497520.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poterba, JM (2001) Demographic structure and asset returns. Review of Economics and Statistics 83, 565584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Qiao, C and Sherris, M (2013) Managing systematic mortality risk with group self-pooling and annuitization schemes. Journal of Risk and Insurance 80, 949974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reichling, F and Smetters, K (2015) Optimal annuitization with stochastic mortality and correlated medical costs. American Economic Review 105, 32733320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renshaw, AE and Haberman, S (2006) A cohort-based extension to the Lee–carter model for mortality reduction factors. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 38, 556570.Google Scholar
Richter, A and Weber, F (2011) Mortality-indexed annuities: managing longevity risk via product design. North American Actuarial Journal 15, 212236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schich, S (2008) Revisiting the asset-meltdown hypothesis. OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends 15, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stamos, MZ (2008) Optimal consumption and portfolio choice for pooled annuity funds. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 43, 5668.Google Scholar
Steffensen, M (2011) Optimal consumption and investment under time-varying relative risk aversion. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35, 659667.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tan, KS, Blake, DP and MacMinn, RD (2015) Longevity risk and capital markets: the 2013–14 update. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 63, 111.Google Scholar
Tsai, JT, Wang, JL and Tzeng, LY (2010) On the optimal product mix in life insurance companies using conditional value at risk. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 46, 235241.Google Scholar
U.S. Chamber of Commerce (2016) Private retirement benefits in the 21st century: Achieving retirement security. Report, United States Chamber of Commerce, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Viceira, LM (2001) Optimal portfolio choice for long-horizon investors with nontradable labor income. Journal of Finance 56, 433470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Visco, I (2006) Longevity risk and financial markets. Keynote speech to the 26th SUERF Colloquium, Lisbon, 12–14 October 2006. Last accessed: 2017-04-20.Google Scholar
Wakker, P, Thaler, R and Tversky, A (1997) Probabilistic insurance. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 15, 728.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weale, M and van de Ven, J (2016) Variable annuities and aggregate mortality risk. National Institute Economic Review 237, 5561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Willis Towers Watson (2017) FTSE 350 defined contribution pension scheme survey 2017. Infographic. Last Accessed: 2017-02-24.Google Scholar
Wong, A, Sherris, M and Stevens, R (2017) Natural hedging strategies for life insurers: impact of product design and risk measure. Journal of Risk and Insurance 84, 153175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xu, J, Murphy, SL, Kochanek, KD and Arias, E (2016) Mortality in the united states, 2015. NCHS Data Brief No. 267, National Center for Health Statistics.Google Scholar
Yaari, ME (1965) Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer. Review of Economic Studies 32, 137150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yang, J, Acheson, L, Holt, J, Rupp, G and Spica, K (2016) 2015 Target-Date Fund Landscape. Report, Vanguard Group, Inc. Last Accessed: 2017-03-06.Google Scholar
Yao, D, Yang, H and Wang, R (2011) Optimal dividend and capital injection problem in the dual model with proportional and fixed transaction costs. European Journal of Operational Research 211, 568576.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yogo, M (2016) Portfolio choice in retirement: health risk and the demand for annuities, housing, and risky assets. Journal of Monetary Economics 80, 1734.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Zimmer, A, Schade, C and Gründl, H (2009) Is default risk acceptable when purchasing insurance? Experimental evidence for different probability representations, reasons for default, and framings. Journal of Economic Psychology 30, 1123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zimmer, A, Gründl, H, Schade, CD and Glenzer, F (2018) An incentive-compatible experiment on probabilistic insurance and implications for an insurer's solvency level. Journal of Risk and Insurance 85, 245273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar