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Lifetime ruin minimization: should retirees hedge inflation or just worry about it?*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 May 2011

HUAXIONG HUANG  and
MOSHE A. MILEVSKY
HUAXIONG HUANG
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto
MOSHE A. MILEVSKY
Affiliation:
Schulich School of Business, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto (e-mail: [email protected])
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Abstract

Inflation for retirees is different from and mostly higher than the macro-economic (average) inflation rate for the entire population. In the U.S.A, for example, the Consumer Price Index for the Urban population (CPI-U) calculated and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has a lesser known cousin called the CPI-E (for the elderly) in which the sub-component weights are based on the consumption patterns of Americans above the age of 62. This suggests that Inflation-Linked Bond Funds (ILBFs) – whose individual component bond adjustments are based on broad population (CPI-U) inflation – might not be the best hedge for individual retirees’ cost of living. But then again, broad shocks to inflation are likely to impact both indices. So, motivated by the question – is it good enough? – the current paper uses lifetime ruin minimization (LRM) techniques to investigate the optimal allocation between an ILBF and a nominal investment fund for a retiree facing an exogenous liability. Our model trades off the benefit of an imperfect hedge against the cost of lower investment growth. However, our numerical results suggest that although ILBFs can be a large part of the optimal retirement portfolio, it should be treated as just another asset class in the broad optimization problem as opposed to a special or unique category.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Pension Economics & Finance , Volume 10 , Issue 3 , July 2011 , pp. 363 - 387
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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