Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T07:28:38.971Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Employment and substitution effects of raising the statutory retirement age in France

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 January 2019

Simon Rabaté
Affiliation:
Paris School of Economics (PSE) – École normale supérieure (ENS), France
Julie Rochut*
Affiliation:
Cnav-Unité de Recherche sur le Vieillissement (URV) – RITM Université Paris Sud, France
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

Abstract

Increasing the minimum retirement age is a widespread option chosen by policy makers to reduce spending in financially constrained public pension systems. Yet, the effectiveness of such a reform strongly depends on the ability of individuals to postpone their withdrawal from the labor force. In this paper, we study the immediate impact of the 2010 reform of the French pension system by carrying out a short-term evaluation on the increase of the statutory eligibility age from 60 to 61. We use a differences-in-differences methodology, comparing the trajectories from work to retirement for succeeding generations facing a different statutory age. Using a detailed social security administrative database, we provide a global assessment of the effects of the reform, accounting for the potential substitution effects from old-age insurance toward unemployment, sickness or disability insurance schemes. Our findings suggest that despite a sizable effect on the employment rate, the reform also strongly increased unemployment and disability rates.

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Atalay, K and Barrett, G (2015) The impact of age pension eligibility age on retirement and program dependence: evidence from an Australian experiment. Review of Economics and Statistics 97(1), 7187.10.1162/REST_a_00443CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baguelin, O and Rémillon, D (2014) Unemployment insurance and management of the older workforce in a dual labor market: evidence from France. Labour Economics 30, 245264.10.1016/j.labeco.2014.04.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Behaghel, L, Blanchet, D, Debrand, T and Roger, M (2011) Disability and social security reforms: the French case, NBER working paper No 17055. National Bureau of Economic Research.10.3386/w17055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bozio, A (2008) Impact evaluation of the 1993 French pension reform on retirement age. Pensions: An International Journal 13(4), 207212.10.1057/pm.2008.22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cahuc, P, Hairault, J-O and Prost, C (2016) The employment of seniors: a choice to clarify and personalize. Notes du conseil d'analyse économique (5), 112.Google Scholar
COR (2015) Evolutions et perspectives des retraites en France, Rapport annuel 1–162.Google Scholar
Cribb, J, Emmerson, C and Tetlow, G (2016) Signals matter? Large retirement responses to limited financial incentives. Labour Economics 42, 203212.10.1016/j.labeco.2016.09.005CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deaton, A (1997) The Analysis of Household Surveys: A Microeconometric Approach to Development Policy. World Bank Publications. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/593871468777303124/The-analysis-of-household-surveys-a-microeconometric-approach-to-development-policy 10.1596/0-8018-5254-4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Di Porto, A (2011) Les retraites pour inaptitude–comparaison avec les retraites normales. Les Cahiers de la Cnav (3), 98.Google Scholar
Dubois, Y and Koubi, M (2017) `La réforme des retraites de 2010: quel impact sur `lactivité des seniors? Economie et prévision 211–212, 6190.Google Scholar
Duggan, M, Singleton, P and Song, J (2007) Aching to retire? The rise in the full retirement age and its impact on the social security disability rolls. Journal of Public Economics 91(7–8), 13271350.10.1016/j.jpubeco.2006.12.007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glenn, ND (2005) Cohort Analysis, vol. 5. Sage Publications Inc.10.4135/9781412983662CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hairault, J-O (2012) Pour l'emploi des seniors : assurance chômage et licenciements. Opuscules du CEPREMAP.Google Scholar
Karlström, A, Palme, M and Svensson, I (2008) The employment effect of stricter rules for eligibility for DI: evidence from a natural experiment in Sweden. Journal of Public Economics 92(10), 20712082.10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.04.014CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kessler, D and Masson, A (1985) Cycles de vie et générations. Edition Economica.10.3917/econo.kessl.1985.01CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lumsdaine, RL, Stock, JH and Wise, DA (1996) Why are retirement rates so high at age 65? In Advances in the Economics of Aging. University of Chicago Press, 6182.Google Scholar
Mahieu, R and Blanchet, D (2004) Estimating Models of Retirement Behavior on French Data, in Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro-Estimation. University of Chicago Press, 235284.Google Scholar
Manoli, DS and Weber, A (2016) The effects of the early retirement age on retirement decisions, National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Workin paper No 22561.Google Scholar
Minni, C (2015) Emploi et chômage des 55–64 en 2013. Tassement du taux d'activité, forte hausse du taux de chômage. Dares Analyses. No 012 1–12.Google Scholar
Rabaté, S and Rochut, J (2017) Employment and substitution effects of raising the statutory eligibility age in France. PSE Working paper (46).Google Scholar
Staubli, S and Zweimüller, J (2013) Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers? Journal of Public Economics 108, 1732.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Unédic (2016) Taux de remplacement du salaire par l'allocation chômage, Unédic.Google Scholar
Vestad, OL (2013) Labour supply effects of early retirement provision. Labour Economics 25, 98109.10.1016/j.labeco.2013.04.001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yang, Y and Land, KC (2013) Age-period-cohort Analysis: New Models, Methods, and Empirical Applications. CRC Press.Google Scholar