Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T13:53:42.824Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Demographic change, PAYG pensions and child policies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 December 2016

PETER JOSEF STAUVERMANN
Affiliation:
School of Global Business & Economics, Changwon National University, Gyeongnam, 9, Sarim Dong, 641-773 Changwon, Republic of Korea (e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected])
RONALD RAVINESH KUMAR
Affiliation:
QUT Business School, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia School of Accounting & Finance, University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji Bolton Business School, University of Bolton, Deane Road, Bolton BL3 5AB, UK (e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]; rrk1mpo@bolton,ac.uk; [email protected])

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to investigate how child policies affect the population growth and to what extent these policies are useful to increase pension benefits of a pay-as-you-go pension system in a small open economy. Specifically, we analyze two different child policies: the provision of child allowances and an educational subsidy. We apply an overlapping generations model in its canonical form, where we consider endogenous fertility, endogenous growth and endogenous aging of the society. From the analysis, we conclude that with a child allowance, there is a consequent increase in the number of children and decrease in pension benefits and life expectancy. On the other hand, we note that with an educational subsidy, there is a decrease in the number of children, and an increase in the pension benefits and the life expectancy, respectively. The model developed aims to complement the models of the Unified Growth Theory.

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Peter J. Stauvermann acknowledges thankfully the financial support of the Changwon National University 2015–2017. Also, both authors sincerely thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and advice. The usual disclaimer applies.

References

Azariadis, C. (1993) Intertemporal Macroeconomics. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.Google Scholar
Azariadis, C. and Drazen, A. (1990) Threshold externalities in economic development. Quarterly of Journal of Economics, 105(2): 501526.Google Scholar
Barro, R. J. (1974) Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6): 10951117.Google Scholar
Becker, G. S. (1960) An economic analysis of fertility. In Universities-National Bureau (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Princeton, NJ: Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, Princeton University Press, pp. 209240. Available online at http://www.nber.org/chapters/c2387.pdfGoogle Scholar
Becker, G. S. and Murphy, K. M. (1988) The family and the state. Journal of Law and Economics, 31(1): 118.Google Scholar
Beenstock, M. (2007) Do abler parents have fewer children? Oxford Economic Papers, 59(3): 430457.Google Scholar
Bjorklund, A. (2006) Does family policy affect fertility? Lessons from Sweden. Journal of Population Economics, 19: 324.Google Scholar
Blackburn, K. and Cipriani, G. P. (2002) A model of longevity, fertility and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26(2): 187204.Google Scholar
Boldrin, M. and Montes, A. (2005) The intergenerational state: education and pensions. Review of Economic Studies, 72(3): 651664.Google Scholar
Cigno, A. (1993) Intergenerational transfers without altruism. European Journal of Political Economy, 9(4): 505518.Google Scholar
Cigno, A. and Luporini, A. (2011) Optimal family policy in the presence of moral hazard when the quantity and quality of children are stochastic. CESifo Economic Studies, 57(2): 349364.Google Scholar
Cipriani, G. P. (2014) Population ageing and PAYG pensions in the OLG model. Journal of Population Economics, 27(1): 251256.Google Scholar
Cipriani, G. P. (2015) Child labour, human capital and life expectancy. Economics Bulletin, 35(2): 19.Google Scholar
Cipriani, G. P. and Makris, M. (2012) PAYG pensions and human capital accumulation: some unpleasant arithmetic. Manchester School, 80(4): 429446.Google Scholar
Cremer, H., Gahvari, F., and Pestieau, P. (2011) Fertility, human capital accumulation, and the pension system. Journal of Public Economics, 95(11): 12721279.Google Scholar
Cutler, D., Deaton, A., and Lleras-Muney, A. (2006) The determinants of mortality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(3): 97120.Google Scholar
De la Croix, D. and Doepke, M. (2003) Inequality and growth: why differential fertility matters. American Economic Review, 93(4): 10911113.Google Scholar
De la Croix, D. and Doepke, M. (2004) Public versus private education when differential fertility matters. Journal of Development Economics, 73(2): 607629.Google Scholar
Diamond, P. (1965) National debt in a neoclassical growth model. American Economic Review, 55(5): 11261150.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, I. and Lui, F. T. (1991) Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 99(5): 10291059.Google Scholar
Fanti, L. and Gori, L. (2008 a) Human capital, income, fertility and child policy. Economics Bulletin, 9(6): 17.Google Scholar
Fanti, L. and Gori, L. (2008 b) Child quality choice and fertility disincentives. Economics Bulletin, 10(7): 16.Google Scholar
Fanti, L. and Gori, L. (2012) Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model. Journal of Population Economics, 25(3): 955961.Google Scholar
Fanti, L. and Gori, L. (2013) Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability. Journal of Population Economics, 26(3): 12091232.Google Scholar
Fanti, L. and Gori, L. (2014) Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies. Journal of Population Economics, 27(2): 529564.Google Scholar
Fenge, R. and Meier, V. (2005) Pensions and fertility incentives. Canadian Journal of Economics, 38(1): 2848.Google Scholar
Fenge, R. and Meier, V. (2009) Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes? International Tax and Public Finance, 16(2): 137163.Google Scholar
Galor, O. (2005) From stagnation to growth: unified growth theory. In Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S. (eds), Handbook of Economic Growth. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier, pp. 171293.Google Scholar
Galor, O. (2011) Unified Growth Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Galor, O. and Weil, D. N. (1999) Population, technology, and growth: from Malthusian stagnation to demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4): 806828.Google Scholar
Golosov, M., Jones, L. E., and Tertilt, M. (2007) Efficiency with endogenous population growth. Econometrica, 75(4): 10391071.Google Scholar
Kaganovich, M. and Meier, V. (2012) Social security, human capital, and growth in a small open economy. Journal of Public Economic Theory, 14(4): 573600.Google Scholar
Kaganovich, M. and Zilcha, I. (2012) Pay-as-you-go or funded social security? A general equilibrium comparison. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 36(4): 455467.Google Scholar
Kolmar, M. (1997) Intergenerational redistribution in a small open economy with endogenous fertility. Journal of Population Economics, 10(3): 335356.Google Scholar
Laroque, G. and Salanié, B. (2014) Identifying the response of fertility to financial incentives. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(2): 314332.Google Scholar
Li, B. and Zhang, J. (2015) Efficient education subsidization and the pay-as-you-use principle. Journal of Public Economics, 129: 4150.Google Scholar
Lucas, R. E. (1988) On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1): 342.Google Scholar
Meier, V. and Wrede, M. (2010) Pension, fertility, and education. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 9(1): 7593.Google Scholar
Michel, P. and Pestieau, P. (1993) Population growth and optimality. Journal of Public Economics, 6(4): 353362.Google Scholar
Peters, W. (1995) Public pensions, family allowances and endogenous demographic change. Journal of Population Economics, 8(2): 161183.Google Scholar
Rangel, A. (2003) Forward and backward intergenerational Goods: why is social security good for the environment? American Economic Review, 93(3): 813834.Google Scholar
Stauvermann, P. J. and Kumar, R. R. (2016) Sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system in a small open economy with ageing, human capital and endogenous fertility. Metroeconomica, 67(1): 220.Google Scholar
Strulik, H. (2003) Mortality, the trade-off between child quality and quantity, and demo-economic development. Metroeconomica, 54(4): 499520.Google Scholar
Strulik, H. (2004 a) Child mortality, child labour and economic development. The Economic Journal, 114: 547568.Google Scholar
Strulik, H. (2004 b) Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility. Journal of Population Economics, 17(3): 433453.Google Scholar
Toledano, E., Frish, R., Zussman, N., and Gottlieb, D. (2011) The effect of child allowances on fertility. Israel Economic Review, 9(1): 103150.Google Scholar
Uzawa, H. (1965) Optimum technical change in an aggregative model of economic growth. International Economic Review, 6(1): 1831.Google Scholar
Van Groezen, B. and Meijdam, L. (2008) Growing old and staying young: population policy in an ageing closed economy. Journal of Population Economics, 21(3): 573588.Google Scholar
Van Groezen, B., Leers, T., and Meijdam, L. (2003) Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as Siamese twins. Journal of Public Economics, 87(2): 233251.Google Scholar
World Bank (2015 a) World Development Indicators, Total Fertility Rate. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.INGoogle Scholar
World Bank (2015 b) World Development Indicators, Life Expectancy at Birth. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN.Google Scholar
Zhang, J. (1997) Government debt, human capital, and endogenous growth. Southern Economic Journal, 64(1): 281292.Google Scholar
Zhang, J. (2003) Optimal debt, endogenous fertility, and human capital externalities in a model with altruistic bequests. Journal of Public Economics, 87(7): 18251835.Google Scholar
Zhang, J. (2006) Second-best public debt with human capital externalities. Journal of Dynamics and Control, 30(2): 347360.Google Scholar