Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-29T18:56:22.642Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Conceptualizing, measuring and financing the legacy costs in an NDC reform*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2012

ROBERT HOLZMANN*
Affiliation:
University of Malaya (KL), IZA and CES
ALAIN JOUSTEN
Affiliation:
University of Liège, IZA and Netspar
*
Contact author: Robert Holzmann, [email protected]

Abstract

The paper provides a framework for the conceptualization, definition and measurement of the legacy costs that needs to be addressed in a reform that transforms an unfunded (or non-financial) defined benefit (NDB) scheme into an equally unfunded notional (or non-financial) defined contribution (NDC) scheme. During a transition from NDB to NDC a financing gap typically arises due to accrued to date liabilities from the old system in excess of the NDC scheme's sustainable flow of benefits. This gap – or legacy cost – needs to be estimated and best explicitly financed. We illustrate different techniques to gauge the scope of the cost. The paper applies the proposed approach to a hypothetical NDC reform in China.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Revised paper presented at the Joint Swedish Social Insurance Agency – World Bank Conference on Non-Financial Defined Contribution (NDC) Pension Systems: Progress and New Frontiers in a Changing Pension World, Stockholm, December 2–4, 2009. Very valuable comments and suggestions have been received from Sandy Mackenzie, Florence Legros, Edward Palmer, David Robalino, 3 anonymous journal referees, conference participants, and during presentations at the World Bank, Washington, DC, and the European Center/Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna. For any remaining errors we take full responsibility. This paper reflects our own views and does in no case reflect the position and views of the organizations we are associated with.

References

Atkinson, A. and Stiglitz, J. (1976) The design of tax structure: direct versus indirect taxation. Journal of Public Economics, 6(1–2): 5575.Google Scholar
Attanasio, O. and Weber, G. (1995) Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey. Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, 103(6): 1121–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barr, N. and Diamond, P. (2009) Pension Reform in China: Issues, Options and Recommendations. Mimeo. December.Google Scholar
Besson, E. (2007) TVA sociale. Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, Secrétariat d’état chargé de la prospective et de l’évaluation des politiques publiques, Paris.Google Scholar
Boado-Penas, M.C. and Vidal-Melia, C. (2012) The actuarial balance of the Pay-As-You-Go pension schemes: the Swedish NDC vs the US NDB approach. Forthcoming in Holzmann, R., Palmer, E. and Robalino, D. (eds), NDC Pension Schemes: Progress and Frontiers in a Changing Pension World. Washington, DC: The World Bank (in print).Google Scholar
Botman, D. and Kumar, M. (2007) Global Aging Pressures: Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms, IMF Working Paper 07/196.Google Scholar
Botman, D. and Tuladhar, A. (2008) Tax and Pension Reform in the Czech Republic-Implications for Growth and Debt Sustainability, IMF Working paper 08/125.Google Scholar
Chéron, A., Hérault, J-O. and Langot, F. (2008) A quantitative evaluation of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers: An equilibrium search approach. Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, 92(3–4): 817843.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copenhagen Economics (2007) Study on reduced VAT applied to goods and services in the Member States of the European Union, Final report prepared for the European Union DG TAXUD, Brussels, http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/vat/how_vat_works/rates/study_reduced_VAT.pdfGoogle Scholar
Diamond, P. (2009) Taxes and Pensions. Boston College, Centre for Retirement Research WP 2009–12.Google Scholar
Feldstein, M., Ranguelova, E. and Samwick, A. (2001) The Transition to Investment-based Social Security when Portfolio Returns and Capital Profitability Are Uncertain. In Campbell, John Y. and Feldstein, Martin S. (eds), Risk Aspects of Investment Based Social Security Reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Holzmann, R. (1998) Financing the Transition to Multipillar, Social Protection Discussion Paper Series, SPDP No. 9808, Washington, DC: World Bank, December.Google Scholar
Holzmann, R. (1999) On the economic benefits and fiscal requirements of moving from unfunded to funded pensions. In: Buti, M., Franco, D. and Pench, L. (eds), The Welfare State in Europe, Cheltenham, UL. And Northampton, MA (Edward Elgar), 139196.Google Scholar
Holzmann, R., Palacios, R. and Zviniene, A. (2004) Implicit Pension Debt: Issues, Measurement and Scope in International Perspective. Social Protection Discussion Paper Series, SPDP No. 0403, Washington, DC: World Bank, March.Google Scholar
Keen, M. and Mansour, M. (2010a) Revenue mobilisation in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges from globalisation I – Trade reform. Development Policy Review, 28: 553571.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keen, M. and Mansour, M. (2010b) Revenue mobilisation in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges from globalisation II – Corporate taxation. Development Policy Review, 28: 573596.Google Scholar
Kramarz, F. and Philippon, T. (2001) The impact of differential payroll tax subsidies on minimum wage employment. Journal of Public Economics, 82(1): 115146.Google Scholar
Oksanen, H. (2012) China: NDC pension reform for an aging economy. In Holzmann, R., Palmer, E. and Robalino, D. (eds), Progress, Lessons and Implementation ch. 7. Vol. 1 of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World. Washington, DC: World Bank and Swedish Social Insurance Agency, in print.Google Scholar
Palmer, E. (2006) Conversion to NDCs – issues and models. In Holzmann, R. and Palmer, E. (eds), Pension Reform: Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution (NDC) Schemes Chapter 9. Washington, DC: World Bank, 169202.Google Scholar
Chlon-Dominique, A., Franco, D. and Palmer, E. (2012) The first wave of NDC reforms: the experiences of Italy, Latvia, Poland and Sweden. In Holzmann, R., Palmer, E. and Robalino, D. (eds), Progress, Lessons and Implementation ch. 2. Vol. 1 of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World. Washington, DC: World Bank and Swedish Social Insurance Agency, in print.Google Scholar
Robalino, D. and Bodor, A. (2009) On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role o government-indexed bonds. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 8(2): 153187.Google Scholar
Settergren, O. and Boguslaw, M. (2006) The rate of return of pay-as-you-go systems: a more exact consumption-loan model of interest. In Holzmann, R. and Palmer, E. (eds), Pension Reform: Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution (NDC) Schemes, Chapter 7, Washington, DC: World Bank, 117142.Google Scholar
Sin, Y. (2005) China: Pension Liabilities and Reform Options for Old Age Insurance. World Bank Research Working Paper 2005–1.Google Scholar
Valdes-Prieto, S. (2005) Securitization of taxes implicit in PAYG pensions. Economic Policy, 20(42): 215265.Google Scholar
Vidal-Melia, C. and Boado-Penas, M.C. (2010) Notes on Using the Hidden Asset ir Contribution Asset to Compile the Acturial Balance for Pay-As-You-go Pension Systems. FUNCAS, WP-571.Google Scholar
Williamson, J.B. and Shen, C. (2004) Do notional defined contribution accounts make sense as part of the old-age security mix for China? Journal of Aging and Social Policy, 16(4): 3957.Google Scholar
Wise, D. (ed.) ( 2012, forthcoming) Social Security and Retirement around the World: Historical Trends in Mortality and Health, Employment, and Disability Insurance Participation and Reforms, Chicago: University of Chicago Press and NBER.Google Scholar
World Bank (2006) China: Evaluation of the Liaoning Social Security Reform Pilot, Report No. 38183-CN. Bejing: World Bank, December.Google Scholar
World Bank (2012, forthcoming) China – A Vision for Pension Policy Reform. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Zheng, B. (2012) China: a hybrid NDC pension reform proposal. In Holzmann, Robert, Palmer, Edward, and Robalino, David A. (eds), Progress, Lessons and Implementation ch. 6. Vol. 1 of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World. Washington, DC: World Bank and Swedish Social Insurance Agency, in print.Google Scholar