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Modelling Port Water Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 September 2011

Ashim Kumar Debnath ,
Hoong Chor Chin  and
Md. Mazharul Haque
Ashim Kumar Debnath*
Affiliation:
(Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore)
Hoong Chor Chin
Affiliation:
(Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore)
Md. Mazharul Haque
Affiliation:
(Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore)
*
(Email: [email protected])
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Abstract

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influential factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modelling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher at night.

Keywords

Navigational collision riskPort fairwaysTraffic conflictsBinomial logistic model
Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 64 , Issue 4 , October 2011 , pp. 645 - 655
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 2011

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