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The Estimation of Collision Risk for Marine Traffic in UK Waters

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 November 2009

G. R. G. Lewison
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Extract

The purpose of this paper is to present data and draw conclusions on the chances of collision in different areas of the waters around the UK. The subject of risk analysis has recently grown in importance, and it is often necessary for an operator to demonstrate that a proposed operation is acceptably safe before he will be given permission to begin. Risk estimates are generally of two basic types, backward and forward. Backward estimates are based upon the number of accidents that have occurred in a particular situation, and if there have been many there will be a fair degree of confidence that the risk has been accurately estimated. Forward estimates have to be made where there are so few actual accidents that no backward estimates are possible: they are based upon an analysis of the situation into a sequence of events, the probability of each being known by comparison with data obtained from other situations. Although these data may themselves be reliable, the final risk estimates will depend upon the comparability of the situations and also upon whether the sequence of events has been correctly identified.

Type
Marine Traffic Studies
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 33 , Issue 3 , September 1980 , pp. 317 - 328
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 1980

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References

REFERENCES

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