This paper discusses the drawbacks of observational methods of analysing navigational errors and shows the advantages of a synthesizing technique, whereby the effect of any change in the magnitude and distribution of a component error upon the overall resultant error can be evaluated and examined. To this end a computer program has been developed which is capable of accepting both analytical and numerical statistical distributions, representing errors in the components, and combining them to yield the overall effective error. A new error distribution better representative of many navigational error distributions is introduced. The work described is applicable to the investigation of any error which depends upon the interaction of many component errors and is not restricted to the navigation field. An extension of the method to mixed samples is indicated.

The paper describes the final step in the development of a universal computer program aimed at synthesizing navigational errors in order that they can be used in evaluating their effect on any proposed A.T.C. system. The investigation was commenced at the College of Aeronautics in 1963 and has been the subject of several published papers during the interim period.