One of the major concerns in the operation of an air traffic system is the maintenance of adequate separation between aircraft. The assurance of an ‘acceptably low’ risk of collision is a crucial element in the system design. A number of factors need to be assessed in this process. What is the navigational performance of the aircraft in the system ? What are the possibilities for radar surveillance ? Are procedural arrangements together with position reporting a suitable mechanism? What difference would be made by collision avoidance or warning systems? Given that any combination of these or other factors has an implication on the minimum separation between aircraft, the level of safety ‘assured’ has to be balanced against the costs of the various alternatives which may present themselves.

In planning for change the implications of new operating practices or devices have to be assessed carefully. For most changes the process is one of evolution rather than revolution, although collision avoidance devices may have more of the latter's characteristics. Even for ‘revolutionary’ changes it may be possible to model the new system. Thus the existing situation is studied and its characteristics observed, then there are hypotheses of the ways in which the change alters the mechanisms in the system and finally the likely effects on system performance through mathematical and computer (often fast-time simulation) modelling.