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The Estimation of Losses Resulting from Marine Accidents

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 November 2009

Yahei Fujii
Affiliation:
(Electronic Navigation Research Institute, Japan)

Extract

Studies have already been published on the probability of collision at sea, the effect of darkness and reduced visibility on the probability of collision, and on the distribution of collisions in particular areas. Only Minorsky and Comstock appear to have studied the extent of the resulting damage and sufficient data are not available for detailed analysis.

The establishment and operation of any traffic management system calls for a considerable outlay, so that an objective estimate of the extent of collision losses is often required. Such a cost/benefit survey was carried out by the Japan Transport Economics Research Centre on the assumption that a traffic management system can greatly reduce the incidence of collisions involving vessels of over 3000 g.r.t. Since half the aggregate loss is shown to relate to these large vessels (and considering their increasing capital value), an expenditure of ten billion yen or more (£20 million) over a period of ten years would appear to be cost effective if its primary purpose were to avert accidents to large vessels.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 1978

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References

REFERENCES

1Fujii, Y. and Shiobara, R. (1971). The analysis of traffic engineering. This journal, 24, 541.Google Scholar
2Fujii, Y. (1974). The effect of darkness on the probability of collision and stranding, visual range and the degree of risk. This Journal, 27, 243.Google Scholar
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4Minorsky, V. U. (1959). An analysis of ship collisions with reference to protection of nuclear power plants, J. Ship Research, 1.Google Scholar
5Comstock, J. P. et al. (1961). Survival of collision damage, the i960 Convention on Safety of Life at Sea, SNAME Trans., 69, 461.Google Scholar