^{Page 107 note 1} Tanzania's manpower plan is contained in: Thomas, Robert L., Survey of the High-Level Manpower Requirements and Resources for the Five-Year Development Plan, 1964–65 to 1968–69 (Dar es Salaam, 1965).Google Scholar Also see Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit, Annual Manpower Report to the President (Dares Salaam, mimeo., 1963, 1964, 1965),Google Scholar and Thomas, Robert L., Implementing a Manpower Plan in a Developing Country (Paris, International Institute of Educational Planning, mimeo., 1966).Google Scholar

^{Page 108 note 1} See Lockwood, F. et al. :, Report of the Working Party on Higher Education in East Africa (Nairobi, 1959);Google ScholarInternational Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The Economic Development of Tanganyika (Baltimore, 1961);Google ScholarThurston, J. L., Human Resources and Manpower Planning in Tanganyika (Dar es Salaam, mimeo., 1960);Google ScholarDevelopment Planfor Tanganyika, 1961–62 to 1963–64 (Dar es Salaam, 1962);Google ScholarReport of UNESCO Educational Planning Mission for Tanganyika, June-October 1962 (Paris, 1963);Google ScholarHunter, Guy, High-level Manpower in East Africa–Preliminary Assessment (Nairobi, mimeo., 1962).Google Scholar

^{Page 108 note 2} See speech by Minister of Education, The Standard (Dar es Salaam), 5 02 1966.Google Scholar There is a possibility that this policy may be altered in the near future by eliminating the examination required in rural primary schools at the end of Standard IV. This would roughly double the number of pupils in primary schools.

^{Page 108 note 3} There are roughly 30,000 primary-school leavers each year and only 20% of them continue to secondary school.

^{Page 108 note 4} Report of the Africanisation Commission, 1962 (Dar es Salaam, 1963).Google Scholar At independence, only 17% of Government middle- and high-level jobs were occupied by Tanzanians. By 1965 the proportion was up to 57%. Thomas, , Implementing a Manpower Plan, p. 46.Google Scholar

^{Page 108 note 5} Tobias, George, High-Level Manpower Requirements and Resources in Tanganyika, 1962–1967 (Dares Salaam, 1963).Google Scholar

^{Page 109 note 1} Tanganyika Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development, 1964–1969 (Dar es Salaam, 1964), vol. I, p. viii.Google Scholar

^{Page 109 note 2} Ibid. p. xi.

^{Page 109 note 3} Alternative approaches include cost-benefit analysis, and a linear regression analysis of the relationship between the demand for manpower and the level of national product. For a discussion see Rado, Emil, ‘Manpower, Education, and Economic Growth’, in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), IV, 1, 1966.Google Scholar

^{Page 110 note 1} Thomas, , Survey of the High-Level Manpower Requirements, p. 2.Google Scholar

^{Page 110 note 2} Annual Manpower Report to the President 1964, p. 16.

^{Page 110 note 3} Source: Thomas, Survey of the High-Level Manpower Requirements, Table A.

^{Page 111 note 1} Ibid.

^{Page 111 note 2} The fact that no unemployment was reported in high-level occupations supports the assumption that reported vacancies represent an effective demand; but there is no evidence to show whether employers were willing to pay higher prices or whether they were merely willing to hire more workers at the going or lower wage. Although willingness to pay higher wages implies a true shortage, and readiness to hire more only at lower wages does not, the problem of how to treat vacancies is so complex as to evade useful discussion in the absence of complete data. For discussion of various aspects of this problem, see a conference report of the National Bureau of Economic Research, The Measurement and Interpretation of Job Vacancies (New York, 1966).Google Scholar

^{Page 111 note 3} It should be pointed out, however, that a significant flow of high-level manpower may come from outside the educational system. That is, skills may be acquired in informal ways, without what is typically regarded by manpower economists as the minimum desirable eclucational requirements. See Resnick, Idrian N., ‘The Economics of Manpower Development: thc Tanzania case', Ph.D. thesis, Boston University, 1966.Google Scholar

^{Page 112 note 1} In 1963, 271 Tanzanian students were in the East African Colleges and about 1,500 were in universities overseas. The Law Faculty in Dar es Salaam had 33 Tanzanians in that year.

^{Page 112 note 2} Source: Thomas, Implementing a Manpower Programme, Table I.

^{Page 112 note 3} Includes the 308 students who were rusticated in October 1966; 36 of these were in their final year.

^{Page 112 note 4} In 1965 the proportion of Form VI science students qualifying for university places was 41%; Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit.

^{Page 113 note 1} Source: Thomas, Survey of the High-Level Manpower Requirements, Table A; Thomas, , Implementing a Manpower Plan, p. 25;Google Scholar and Annual Manpower Report to the President, 1964, p. 4.Google Scholar

^{Page 113 note 2} Supply estimates for Category Coccupations have not been made; see Thomas, , Survey of the High-Level Manpower Requirements, p. 9.Google Scholar

^{Page 113 note 3} These figures must now be altered to account for the rustication of 393 students in October 1966. See below, pp. 122–3.

^{Page 113 note 4} Tanganyika, , Report to the President—Manpower Problems and Programmes for Solving Them, 1963, p. 4.Google Scholar

^{Page 113 note 5} This proportion is expected to rise gradually after 1969, to about 50% by 1976, and then begin to taper off; Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit.

^{Page 114 note 1} The 1964 manpower survey recorded 8,977 non-Tanzanians in high-level jobs. It is assumed that 50% of the Asians in these jobs are not citizens.

^{Page 114 note 2} Source: Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit.

^{Page 114 note 3} Figures for these years are planned inputs.

^{Page 114 note 4} These courses are longer than three years; namely, medicine—five years, architecture—five years, and veterinary science—four years.

^{Page 114 note 5} The 1964 manpower survey shows a total five-year requirement of 82 lawyers. This may have been an underestimate, however, and the demand is being resurveyed.

^{Page 115 note 1} An attempt is being made to supplement the supply with overseas training.

^{Page 115 note 2} B.A. (Education) inputs will level off at about 190 annually in the academic year 1975–6, and B.Sc. (Education) inputs will remain at about 150 annually after 1969–70; Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit.

^{Page 115 note 3} List of Post-Secondary Students Studying Outside the Country and at the University College, Dar es Salaam, 1966–67 (Dar es Salaam, 1966).Google Scholar

^{Page 115 note 4} 1965 was the first year these Form IV students were not all employed by the Government.

^{Page 115 note 5} Medicine and engineering, for example, have first claim on Form VI science passers, and education claims the top portion of arts students.

^{Page 116 note 1} Annual Manpower Report to the President, 1964, p. 4.

^{Page 116 note 2} Five-Year Plan, vol. II, ch. 10.Google Scholar Adult education only accounts for £50,000.

^{Page 116 note 3} Tanzania Ministry of Education figures. Actually the total recurrent cost of the College (excluding the contribution to the administration of the University of East Africa), divided by the number of students, produced a recurrent cost per student of £ 1,278 in 1966–7.

^{Page 116 note 4} The figure rises to £ 348 per place per year, if Forms I-IV are excluded, and would be larger still if capital expenditures were included. This figure was obtained by dividing the total recurrent costs over the Plan (£ 16.4 million) by the 1964 to 1969 enrolment (128,262).

^{Page 116 note 5} United Republic of Tanzania. Estimates of Recurrent Expenditure, 1966 to 1967 (Dar es Salaam. 1966).Google Scholar

^{Page 117 note 1} Source: Five-Year Plan, vol. II, ch. 10;Google Scholar Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit, and the Bursar's Office, University College, Dar es Salaam.

^{Page 117 note 2} These figures do not include interest on loans but do include maintenance costs.

^{Page 117 note 3} This figure is not the total number of individual students, as the outputs of secondary forms in the early years become the inputs for the higher levels in the later years of the Plan.

^{Page 117 note 4} It would be more realistic to include the pre-Plan capital expenditures on the University College (£1.3 million) since these had to be undertaken in order to open it at the beginning of the Plan in July 1964.

^{Page 117 note 5} Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit.

^{Page 117 note 6} In fact, it would have to grow considerably faster over the last two and a half years of the Plan to overcome the poor performance in the initial Plan years.

^{Page 118 note 1} This assumes that education would continue to take 22% of total recurrent expenditures.

^{Page 118 note 2} The gap could be filled by local government contributions.

^{Page 118 note 3} Long-run projections have been made, however, and by 1980, recurrent costs for secondary, teacher-training, and university enrolments are expected to increase by 67%, 178%, and 62% respectively, over the 1968–9 levels; Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit.

^{Page 118 note 4} Thomas, , Implementing a Manpower Programme, p. 54.Google Scholar

^{Page 118 note 5} The College figures include high costs for water and wiring, etc. because it is situated eight miles from Dar es Salaam, but these only account for about £500 of the total unit cost.

^{Page 119 note 1} This is not an unreasonable assumption for planning purposes in Tanzania, where the Government employs 60–65% of the high-level manpower (perhaps 80% since the nationalisations) and sets a wage that is rigid on the downside.

^{Page 119 note 2} See Harbison, Frederick and Myers, Charles A., Education, Manpower and Economic Growth (New York, 1964), pp. 186, 191–2, and 198;Google ScholarBlum, James, ‘Educational Attainment of Occupational Categories of Workers in Selected Countries’, Appendix D in Parnes, Herbert S., Forecasting Educational Needs for Economic and Social Development (Paris, 1962;Google ScholarParnes, Herbert S., ‘Relation of Occupation to Educational Qualifications’, in Parnes, (ed.), Planning Education for Economic and Social Development (Paris, 1963), pp. 147–57;Google Scholar and Republic, of Zambia, , Manpower Report (Lusaka, 1966),Google Scholar Table C.1.

^{Page 119 note 3} What should be sought are the minimum amounts of education/training necessary. There can be little disagreement with the proposition that more education (in the broad sense) produces more skills. But this is only one facet of the economic problem facing manpower planners. Tanzania has made some progress in this direction by making the requirements for administrative civil service posts more in line with the abilities of those available.

^{Page 120 note 1} See Berry, Ralph E., ‘Competition and Efficiency in the Market for American Hospital Services’, Ph.D. thesis, Harvard University, 1965.Google Scholar

^{Page 120 note 2} This has not been entirely ignored in Tanzania, where midwives act as obstetricians and, up-country, medical technicians perform the tasks of doctors. However, recent decisions to build a Medical School, and to stop training medical technicians, indicate a reversal of this tendency.

^{Page 120 note 3} Unpublished paper by Resnick, Jane R., ‘Tanzania's Brain Drain’, 1967.Google Scholar

^{Page 121 note 1} Klingelhofer, Edward, ‘Occupational Preferences of Tanzanian Secondary School Pupils’, to appear in Journal of Social Psychology (Massachusetts), 08 1967.Google Scholar

^{Page 123 note 1} Thomas, Survey of High-Level Manpower Requirements, and Tanzania Manpower Planning Unit. Since the above was written it has been announced that the students will be allowed to return in July 1967, but it is not yet known how many of them will do so.