Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-22T15:55:06.842Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Crisis of governance in South Sudan: electoral politics and violence in the world's newest nation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 February 2016

Johan Brosché*
Affiliation:
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Box 514, SE 751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Kristine Höglund*
Affiliation:
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Box 514, SE 751 20 Uppsala, Sweden

Abstract

Since mid-December 2013, thousands of people have been killed in armed conflict in South Sudan. The fighting is entrenched in a power struggle between the main political contenders ahead of elections which were scheduled for 2015. This article examines the violence in South Sudan since the North–South war ended with a focus on the consequences of the introduction of electoral politics. Our research contributes to the literature on state-building and peace-building in war-torn societies, by exploring how the extreme levels of violence are linked to three groups of factors. First, the stakes involved in being part of the government are extremely high, since it is the only way to secure political and economic influence. Second, the actors involved in political life are dominated by individuals who held positions within the rebel groups, which increases the risk of political differences turning violent. Third, the institutions important for a legitimate electoral process, and which work to prevent violence, are weak or non-existent.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Amnesty International. 2014. Nowhere Safe: Civilians under attack in South Sudan. London: Amnesty International.Google Scholar
Arriola, L.R. 2009. ‘Patronage and political stability in Africa’, Comparative Political Studies 42, 10: 215–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bekoe, D.A. (ed.). 2012. Voting in Fear: electoral violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Boone, C. 2003. Political Topographies of the African State: Territorial authority and institutional choice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boone, C. 2012. ‘Land conflict and distributive politics in Kenya’, African Studies Review 55, 1: 75103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boone, C. & Kriger, N.. 2012. ‘Land patronage and elections: winners and losers in Zimbabwe and Côte d'Ivoire’, in Bekoe, D.A., ed. Voting in Fear: electoral violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 75115.Google Scholar
Brancanti, D. & Snyder, J.L.. 2013. ‘Time to kill: the impact of election timing on post-conflict stability’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 57, 5: 822–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bratton, M. & van de Walle, N.. 1997. Democratic Experiments in Africa: regime transitions in comparative perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brosché, J. 2014. Masters of War: the role of elites in Sudan's communal conflicts. Uppsala: Uppsala University Press.Google Scholar
Brosché, J. & Elfversson, E. 2012. ‘Communal conflicts, civil war and the state’, African Journal on Conflict Resolution 12, 1: 3360.Google Scholar
Carter Center. 2010. Observing Sudan's 2010 National Elections April 11–18, 2010, Final Report.Google Scholar
da Costa, D.F. 2012. Responses to Intercommunal Violence in Jonglei State. e-International Relations. <http://www.e-ir.info/2012/06/18/responses-to-intercommunal-violence-in-jonglei-state>, accessed 11.11.2013.,+accessed+11.11.2013.>Google Scholar
Daxecker, U.E. 2012. ‘The cost of exposing cheating: international election monitoring, fraud, and post-election violence in Africa’, Journal of Peace Research 49, 4: 503–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, L. 1999. Developing Democracy. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Waal, A. 2014. ‘When kleptocracy becomes insolvent: brute causes of the civil war in South Sudan’, African Affairs 113: 347–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferrie, J. 2011. Community Perspectives on the Lou Nuer/Murle Conflict in South Sudan. London: Minority Rights Group International.Google Scholar
Fjelde, H. & Höglund, K.. Forthcoming. ‘Electoral institutions and electoral violence in Sub-Saharan Africa’, British Journal of Political Science.Google Scholar
Hafner-Burton, E.M., Hyde, S.D. & Jablonski, R.S.. 2010. ‘When do governments resort to election violence’, British Journal of Political Science 44, 1: 149–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harragin, S. 2011. Waiting For Peace to Come: Study from Bor, Twic East and Duk counties in Jonglei. Local to Global Protection.Google Scholar
Horowitz, D.L. 2003. ‘Electoral systems: a primer for decision makers’, Journal of Democracy 14, 4: 115–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Höglund, K. 2009. ‘Electoral violence: causes, concepts and consequences’, Terrorism and Political Violence 21, 3: 412–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Höglund, K., Jarstad, A. & Söderberg Kovacs, M.. 2009. ‘The predicament of elections in war-torn societies’, Democratization 16, 3: 530–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Crisis Group (ICG). 2009. Jonglei's Tribal Conflicts: countering insecurity in South Sudan. Brussels: International Crisis Group.Google Scholar
ICG. 2014. South Sudan: a civil war by any other name. Brussels: International Crisis Group.Google Scholar
ICG. 2015. Sudan and South Sudan's Merging Conflicts. Brussels: International Crisis Group.Google Scholar
Jarstad, A.K. & Sisk, T.D. (eds). 2008. From War to Democracy: dilemmas of peacebuilding. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Johnson, D.H. 2012. The Root Causes of Sudan's Civil War: peace or truce. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
Jok, M.J. 2007. Sudan: race, religion, and violence. Oxford: Oneworld.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, S.N. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LeRiche, M. 2014. South Sudan: not just another war and another peace in Africa’, African Arguments. London: Royal African Society.Google Scholar
LeRiche, M. & Arnold, M.. 2012. South Sudan from Revolution to Independence. London: Hurst.Google Scholar
Lindberg, S.I. 2005. ‘Consequences of electoral systems in Africa: a preliminary inquiry’, Electoral Studies 24: 4164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindberg, S.I. 2006. Democracy and Elections in Africa. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyons, T. 2005. Demilitarizing Politics: elections on the uncertain road to peace. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mamdani, M. 1996. Citizen and Subject. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Manning, C. 2007. ‘Party-building on the heels of war: El Salvador, Bosnia, Kosovo and Mozambique’, Democratization 14, 2: 253–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mertenskoetter, P. & Luak, D.S.. 2012. Overview of the Legal System and Legal Research in the Republic of South Sudan. New York, NY: GlobaLex Hauser Global Law School Program, New York University.Google Scholar
Panebianco, A. 1988. Political Parties: organization and power. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Paris, R. 2004. At War's End: building peace after civil conflict. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paris, R. & Sisk, T.D., eds. 2009. The Dilemmas of Statebuilding: confronting the contradictions of postwar peace operations. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pinaud, C. 2014. ‘South Sudan: civil war, predation and the making of a military aristocracy’, African Affairs 113, 451: 192211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, D.N. 2005. Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Radon, J. & Logan, S.. 2014. ‘South Sudan: governance, war, and peace’, Journal of International Affairs 68, 1: 149–67.Google Scholar
Randall, V. & Svåsand, L.. 2002. ‘Political parties and democratic consolidation in Africa’, Democratization 9: 3052.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reilly, B. & Reynolds, A.. 2000. ‘Electoral systems and conflict in divided societies’, in Stern, P.C. & Druckman, D., eds. Conflict Resolution after the Cold War. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 420–82.Google Scholar
Reynolds, A. 1999. Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rolandsen, Ø.H. 2005. Guerrilla Government: political changes in the Southern Sudan during the 1990s. Uppsala: Nordic Africa Institute.Google Scholar
Rolandsen, Ø.H. 2007. From Guerrilla Movement to Political Party: the restructuring of Sudan's People Liberation Movement. Oslo: Peace Research Institute.Google Scholar
Sisk, T.D. 1996. Power Sharing and International Mediation in Ethnic Conflicts. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.Google Scholar
Small Arms Survey. 2013a. Pendulum Swings: the rise and falls of insurgent militias in South Sudan. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.Google Scholar
Small Arms Survey. 2013b. David Yau Yau's Rebellion. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.Google Scholar
Small Arms Survey. 2014. The SPLM-in-Opposition. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.Google Scholar
Small Arms Survey. 2015. The Conflict in Upper Nile. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.Google Scholar
Söderberg Kovacs, M. 2008. ‘When rebels change their stripes: Armed insurgents in post-war politics’, in Jarstad, A.K. & Sisk, T.D., eds. From War to Democracy: Dilemmas of peacebuilding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 134–56.Google Scholar
Sørbø, G.M. 2010. ‘Local violence and international intervention in Sudan’, Review of African Political Economy 37, 124: 173–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thomas, E. 2009. Against the Gathering Storm: securing Sudan's comprehensive peace agreement. London: Chatham House.Google Scholar
UCDP. 2014. UCDP Database. Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.Google Scholar
United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). 2014. Conflict in South Sudan: a human rights report. Juba: United Nations Mission in South Sudan.Google Scholar
van Klinken, G. 2001. ‘The Maluku wars: Bringing society back in’, Indonesia 71: 126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkinson, S.I. 2004. Votes and Violence: electoral competition and ethnic riots in India. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Willis, J., el-Battahani, A. & Woodward, P.. 2009. Elections in Sudan: learning from experience. Nairobi: Rift Valley Institute.Google Scholar
Young, J. 2006. The South Sudan Defence Forces in the Wake of the Juba Declaration. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.Google Scholar
Young, J. 2010. Jonglei 2010: another round of disarmament. Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies.Google Scholar
AFP. 2014. ‘S. Sudan rebel chief admits “not in control” of troops’, 31.5.2014.Google Scholar
BBC. ‘South Sudan's elections postponed, says President Kiir’, 12.5.2014.Google Scholar
BBC. ‘Profile: South Sudan army defector Peter Gadet’, 11.7.2014.Google Scholar
Mamdani, M. 2014. ‘South Sudan and its unending bloody conflict: no power-sharing without political reform’, The East African, 15.2.2014.Google Scholar
Miamingi, R.P.D. 2012. The Appointment of Dr. Francis Deng as South Sudan's Permanent Representative to the UN: Lessons for the Government of South Sudan. Sudan Tribune, 5.9.2012.Google Scholar
NCR (National Catholic Reporter). ‘As South Sudan progresses, church leaders ‘talk hard’ about problems’, 22.10.2012.Google Scholar
Radio Tamazuj. 2013. ‘Explaining the Addis Agreements: Oil Fees’, 6.10.2013.Google Scholar
Reuters. ‘Riek Machar: South Sudan's divisive pretender for power’, 20.12.2013.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘The Mayom Declaration’, 11.4.2011.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘Lakes governor warns his state not to enter Wau conflict’, 27.12.2012.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘S. Sudan MP's reject Telar's appointment as justice minister’, 13.8.2013.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘Senior SPLM colleagues give Kiir ultimatum over party crisis’, 6.12.2013.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘South Sudanese government, Yau Yau rebels sign ceasefire’, 30.1.2014.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‛US congressman warns South Sudan could become the next Rwanda’, 30.4.2014.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘South Sudan's rival leaders agree on 60 day ultimatum’, 11.6.2014.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘South Sudan rival forces trade accusations over fresh clashes in Unity state’, 29.9.2015.Google Scholar
Arriola, L.R. & Johnson, C.. ‘Election violence in democratizing states’, ms.Google Scholar
Archbishop Deng, Daniel, Juba, 17.10.2011.Google Scholar
UNMIS representative, Juba, 17.10.2011.Google Scholar
Ibrahim Adam Mudawi, Chairman, Sudan Social Development Organization, Khartoum, 9.7.2009.Google Scholar
SPLA veteran, Juba, 14.10.2011.Google Scholar
James Ninrew, member of Nuer Peace Council, Juba, 12.10.2011.Google Scholar
Senior international observer, Juba, 13.7.2009.Google Scholar
International academic, Juba, 13.10.2011.Google Scholar
Jérôme Tubiana, ICG's Sudan Senior Analyst, e-mail conversation, 15.4.2015.Google Scholar
UNMIS representative, Juba, 7.7.2009.Google Scholar
AFP. 2014. ‘S. Sudan rebel chief admits “not in control” of troops’, 31.5.2014.Google Scholar
BBC. ‘South Sudan's elections postponed, says President Kiir’, 12.5.2014.Google Scholar
BBC. ‘Profile: South Sudan army defector Peter Gadet’, 11.7.2014.Google Scholar
Mamdani, M. 2014. ‘South Sudan and its unending bloody conflict: no power-sharing without political reform’, The East African, 15.2.2014.Google Scholar
Miamingi, R.P.D. 2012. The Appointment of Dr. Francis Deng as South Sudan's Permanent Representative to the UN: Lessons for the Government of South Sudan. Sudan Tribune, 5.9.2012.Google Scholar
NCR (National Catholic Reporter). ‘As South Sudan progresses, church leaders ‘talk hard’ about problems’, 22.10.2012.Google Scholar
Radio Tamazuj. 2013. ‘Explaining the Addis Agreements: Oil Fees’, 6.10.2013.Google Scholar
Reuters. ‘Riek Machar: South Sudan's divisive pretender for power’, 20.12.2013.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘The Mayom Declaration’, 11.4.2011.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘Lakes governor warns his state not to enter Wau conflict’, 27.12.2012.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘S. Sudan MP's reject Telar's appointment as justice minister’, 13.8.2013.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘Senior SPLM colleagues give Kiir ultimatum over party crisis’, 6.12.2013.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘South Sudanese government, Yau Yau rebels sign ceasefire’, 30.1.2014.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‛US congressman warns South Sudan could become the next Rwanda’, 30.4.2014.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘South Sudan's rival leaders agree on 60 day ultimatum’, 11.6.2014.Google Scholar
Sudan Tribune. ‘South Sudan rival forces trade accusations over fresh clashes in Unity state’, 29.9.2015.Google Scholar
Arriola, L.R. & Johnson, C.. ‘Election violence in democratizing states’, ms.Google Scholar
Archbishop Deng, Daniel, Juba, 17.10.2011.Google Scholar
UNMIS representative, Juba, 17.10.2011.Google Scholar
Ibrahim Adam Mudawi, Chairman, Sudan Social Development Organization, Khartoum, 9.7.2009.Google Scholar
SPLA veteran, Juba, 14.10.2011.Google Scholar
James Ninrew, member of Nuer Peace Council, Juba, 12.10.2011.Google Scholar
Senior international observer, Juba, 13.7.2009.Google Scholar
International academic, Juba, 13.10.2011.Google Scholar
Jérôme Tubiana, ICG's Sudan Senior Analyst, e-mail conversation, 15.4.2015.Google Scholar
UNMIS representative, Juba, 7.7.2009.Google Scholar