Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-vdxz6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T23:29:03.706Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Current account balances in Central America 1974–1984: external and domestic influences

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 February 2009

Summary

This paper examines the sensitivity of current account balances to several important variables. Variables are classified as external and domestic. External variables are those over which Central American countries have little or no control. In this study external variables are real interest rates in world capital markets, the terms of trade, and growth in the developed countries. Low real interest rates, improved terms of trade and rapid growth in the developed countries would be expected to improve current account balances. Domestic variables include budget deficits and real exchange rates. These are factors over which Central American countries do have control. Budget deficits and appreciations of real exchange rates can be expected to cause deteriorations in current account balances.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1987

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Kahn, M., and Knight, M., ‘Some Theoretical and Empirical Issues Relating to Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries’. World Development, vol. 10, no. 9, pp. 709–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

2 Kahn, M., and Knight, M., ‘Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 30, no. 4 (12. 1983), pp. 819–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3 Mansur, A. H., ‘Determining the Appropriate Levels of Exchange Rates for Developing Economies’, IMF Staff Papers vol. 30, no. 4 (12. 1983), pp. 784818Google Scholar, and Maciejewski, E. B., ‘“Real” Effective Exchange Rate Indices’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 30, no. 3 (09. 1983), pp. 491541Google Scholar.

4 Bulmer-Thomas, V., ‘The Balance of Payments Crisis and Adjustment Programs in Central America’, in Thorp, R. and Whitehead, L., (eds.). The debt crisis in Latin America (Macmillan, 1986).Google Scholar

5 Saidi, N. and Loehr, W., Research on a Trade Financing Facility for Central America: Balance of Trade, Payments and Real Exchange Rates in the Central American Common Market, 1965–1984, for AID/ROCAP, Guatemala (03 1985).Google Scholar

6 Pindyck, R. S. and Rubenfeld, D. C., Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts (McGraw–Hill, 1976) pp. 202–11Google Scholar, and Maddala, G. S., Econometrics (McGraw–Hill, 1977)Google Scholar, chapter 14.