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Close to a Tipping Point? The Amazon and the Challenge of Sustainable Development under Growing Climate Pressures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2020

Joana C. Pereira Open the ORCID record for Joana C. Pereira [Opens in a new window]  and
Eduardo Viola
Joana C. Pereira*
Affiliation:
Postdoctoral Researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University of Lisbon
Eduardo Viola
Affiliation:
Full Professor at the Institute of International Relations, University of Brasília
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

This commentary examines the challenge of sustainable development in the Amazon, arguing that global efforts to mitigate climate change and current Amazonian policies are clearly inadequate to prevent global warming and deforestation from tipping the forest into a savanna. It analyses the growing climate pressures jeopardising the Amazon's resilience; the erratic Brazilian, Bolivian, Colombian, Ecuadorian and Peruvian governance of the forest; and the failure of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) to establish long-term forest conservation policies in the region. The research demonstrates that the ‘savannisation hypothesis’ is potentially closer to reality than most debates in the social sciences assume and should be considered seriously. The commentary concludes by suggesting possible pathways for preventing the dieback of the Amazon. These are based on three strategic axes: the strengthening of the ACTO, the promotion of a technological revolution in the forest, and a progressive environmental diplomacy by the Amazonian countries.

Spanish abstract

Spanish abstract

Este comentario examina los desafíos al desarrollo sustentable en la Amazonia, argumentando que los esfuerzos globales para mitigar el cambio climático y las políticas actuales amazónicas son claramente inadecuados para evitar que el calentamiento global y la deforestación transformen la selva en una sabana. El material analiza las crecientes presiones climáticas que ponen en peligro la resistencia amazónica; la errática gobernanza brasileña, boliviana, colombiana, ecuatoriana y peruana para la selva; y el fracaso de la Organización del Tratado de Cooperación Amazónica (OTCA) para establecer políticas de conservación forestales de largo plazo en la región. La investigación demuestra que potencialmente la ‘hipótesis de sabanización’ está más cerca de la realidad que lo asumido por la mayoría de los debates en ciencias sociales y debe de ser seriamente considerada. El comentario concluye sugiriendo rutas posibles para prevenir la extinción de la Amazonia. Estas se basan en tres ejes estratégicos: el fortalecimiento de la OTCA, la promoción de una revolución tecnológica en la selva y una diplomacia ecológica progresista de parte de los países amazónicos.

Portuguese abstract

Portuguese abstract

Este comentário examina a dificuldade de um desenvolvimento sustentável na Amazônia, argumentando que os esforços globais para mitigar a mudança climática e as políticas atuais para a Amazônia são claramente inadequados para prevenir que o aquecimento global e um desmatamento levem a floresta a se tornar um cerrado. O comentário analisa as crescentes pressões climáticas que ameaçam a resiliência da Amazônia; a errática governança da floresta por parte dos governos do Brasil, Bolívia, Colômbia, Equador e Peru; e a falha da ACTO (Organização do Tratado de Cooperação da Amazônia) em estabelecer políticas de conservação a longo prazo na região. A pesquisa mostra que a ‘hipótese de savanização’ da floresta tropical está potencialmente mais perto da realidade do que muitos debates nas Ciências Sociais admitem e deveria ser considerada mais seriamente. O comentário conclui sugerindo possíveis maneiras de prevenir a extinção da Amazônia. As sugestões são baseadas em três eixos estratégicos: o fortalecimento da ACTO, o incentivo a uma revolução tecnológica na floresta e uma diplomacia ambiental progressista entre os países Amazônicos.

Keywords

AmazonAmazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO)Amazonian politics and policiesclimate changedeforestationsustainable developmenttipping pointsAmazoniaOrganización del Tratado de Cooperación Amazónica (OTCA)política y políticas amazónicascambio climáticodeforestacióndesarrollo sosteniblepuntos álgidosAmazôniaOrganização do Tratado de Cooperação da Amazônia (ACTO)política e políticas amazônicasmudança climáticadesmatamentodesenvolvimento sustentávelpontos de não retorno
Type
Commentary
Information
Journal of Latin American Studies , Volume 52 , Issue 3 , August 2020 , pp. 467 - 494
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2020

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References

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37 Ibid.

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99 Antonio José Paz Cardona, ‘Colombia: El balance ambiental de Juan Manuel Santos y los enormes retos que le quedan a Iván Duque’, Mongabay, 6 Aug. 2018: https://es.mongabay.com/2018/08/balance-ambiental-presidente-juan-manuel-santos-retos-ivan-duque-colombia/.

100 Oscar Medina, ‘Post-Conflict Colombia Seeks to Become Agricultural Powerhouse’, Bloomberg, 27 July 2017: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-27/post-conflict-colombia-seeks-to-become-agricultural-powerhouse.

101 Salazar, Alejandro, Sanchez, Adriana, Villegas, Juan C., Salazar, Juan F., Carrascal, Daniel Ruiz, Sitch, Stephen, Restrepo, Juan Darío et al. , ‘The Ecology of Peace: Preparing Colombia for New Political and Planetary Climates’, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 16: 19 (2018), pp. 525–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

102 ‘Maioria dos colombianos desaprova gestão de Iván Duque’, Exame, 16 Nov. 2018: https://exame.abril.com.br/mundo/maioria-dos-colombianos-desaprova-gestao-de-ivan-duque/.

103 Pereira and Viola, ‘Catastrophic Climate Risk’.

104 ‘Desejo de mudança e rejeição ao PT alavancam candidatura de Bolsonaro’, Datafolha survey, 22 Oct. 2018: http://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2018/10/1983550-desejo-de-mudanca-e-rejeicao-ao-pt-alavancam-candidatura-de-bolsonaro.shtml.

105 Matos, Sergio Ricardo Reis, ‘Segurança e desenvolvimento nas políticas de defesa dos países da Organização do Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica’, Boletim Meridiano 47, 15: 144 (2014), pp. 10–16Google Scholar.

106 The English copy of the signed treaty is available at www.otca-oficial.info/assets/documents/20170119/65da0529bc0c48762847257a9bdc9f40.pdf.

107 Ibid.

108 www.otca-oficial.info/themes.

109 www.otca-oficial.info/assets/documents/20160816/e05ee45c8ab089b6a841ebbafd0345b8.pdf.

110 ‘Monitoreo de la Cobertura Forestal’, http://www.otca-oficial.info/projects/details/1.

111 Tigre, Maria Antonia, ‘Cooperation for Climate Mitigation in Amazonia: Brazil's Emerging Role as a Regional Leader’, Transnational Environmental Law, 5: 2 (2016), pp. 401–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

112 Viviane Passos Gomes and Francisco Delgado Piqueras, ‘The Role of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty for Shared Water Management’, Actualidad Jurídica Ambiental, 53 (11 Jan. 2016): http://www.actualidadjuridicaambiental.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016_01_11_Passos-Gomes_Delgado-Piqueras_Amazon-Cooperation-Treaty.pdf.

113 Nunes, Paulo Henrique Faria, ‘A Organização do Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica: Uma análise crítica das razões por trás da sua criação e evolução’, Revista de Direito Internacional, 13: 2 (2016), pp. 219–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

114 As of 15 March 2019: www.otca-oficial.info/library/index/6.

115 Schenoni, Luis Leandro, ‘The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance’, Giga Research Programme: Power, Norms, and Governance in International Relations, no. 269 (Hamburg: German Institute of Global and Area Studies, 2015)Google Scholar.

116 Malamud, Andrés, ‘A Leader without Followers? The Growing Divergence between the Regional and Global Performance of Brazilian Foreign Policy’, Latin American Politics and Society, 53: 3 (2011), p. 8CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

117 Ensuring that the sovereignty of the ACTO's member countries is respected and promoted is a strategic objective of the ‘Amazonian Strategic Cooperation Agenda’ approved in 2010 (see note 108).

118 On the issue of sovereignty and regional integration in Latin America, see, for instance, de Almeida, Paulo Roberto, ‘Sovereignty and Regional Integration in Latin America: A Political Conundrum?’, Contexto Internacional, 35: 2 (2013), pp. 471–95CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

119 Garcia, Beatriz, The Amazon from an International Law Perspective (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

120 Tigre, Maria Antonia, Regional Cooperation in Amazonia: A Comparative Environmental Law Analysis (Leiden and Boston, MA: Brill/Nijhoff, 2017)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

121 It is worth noting the timing of the three meetings of presidents under the aegis of the ACT thus far: the first was held in 1989 after the IPCC was founded and climate change became an international concern; the second one occurred in 1992, four months before the Earth Summit (Rio92), where the UNFCCC was signed; and the last one was held in 2009, a few days before the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Copenhagen, a meeting for which there were high expectations of reaching a new climate deal.

122 See, for instance, Gardini, Gian Luca, ‘Towards Modular Regionalism: The Proliferation of Latin American Cooperation’, Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 58: 1 (2015), pp. 210–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

123 Nunes, ‘A Organização do Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica’.

124 Since the Amazon is a transnational biome, transnational cooperation is a critical step to ensuring its preservation.

125 Becker, Bertha K., ‘Geopolitics of the Amazon’, Area Development and Policy, 1: 1 (2016), pp. 15–29CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

126 Tigre, ‘Cooperation for Climate Mitigation in Amazonia’.

127 Burkhart, Katie, McGrath-Horn, Maxwell C. and Unterstell, Natalie, ‘Comparison of Arctic and Amazon Regional Governance Mechanisms’, Polar Geography, 40: 2 (2017), pp. 144–61CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

128 La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre, ‘Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Brazil and “Climate Clubs”’, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 8: 1 (2017)Google Scholar.

129 See, for instance, Edwards, Guy and Roberts, J. Timmons, A Fragmented Continent: Latin America and the Global Politics of Climate Change (Cambridge, MA, and London: The MIT Press, 2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

130 Viola and Franchini, Brazil and Climate Change.

131 La Rovere, ‘Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Brazil’, p. 5.

132 de Ciências, Academia Brasileira, Amazônia: Desafio brasileiro do século XXI. A necessidade de uma revolução científica e tecnológica (São Paulo: Academia Brasileira de Ciências e Fundação Conrado Wessel, 2008)Google Scholar; Nobre et al., ‘Land-Use and Climate Change Risks in the Amazon’.

133 Pereira, Joana Castro, ‘Reducing Catastrophic Climate Risk by Revolutionizing the Amazon: Novel Pathways for Brazilian Diplomacy’, in Sequeira, Tiago and Reis, Liliana (eds.), Climate Change and Global Development: Market, Global Players and Empirical Evidence (Cham: Springer, 2019), pp. 189–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Viola and Franchini, Brazil and Climate Change.

134 Latin American countries are extremely rich in natural resources with significant low-carbon potential.

135 Pereira, ‘Reducing Catastrophic Climate Risk’; Viola and Franchini, Brazil and Climate Change.

136 Academia Brasileira de Ciências, Amazônia: Desafio brasileiro do século XXI. It is worth noting, nevertheless, that a technological revolution per se is an insufficient condition for conserving the Amazon. Considering the imminent risk of crossing a threshold, and the urgency of concrete answers, technology has a critical role to play in solving the problem. However, a paradigm shift in the way in which we relate to nature is also absolutely fundamental; otherwise, technology might become a vehicle for reinforcing unsustainable consumption patterns that jeopardise the forest's resilience. Discussing the new ethical and societal approach required to conserve the Amazon is beyond the scope of this commentary. For an early approach to the subject, see Nobre, Ismael and Nobre, Carlos A., ‘The Amazonia Third Way Initiative: The Role of Technology to Unveil the Potential of a Novel Tropical Biodiversity-Based Economy’, in Loures, Luis (ed.), Land Use: Assessing the Past, Envisioning the Future (London: IntechOpen, 2019), pp. 183–213Google Scholar, where it is argued that science and its instruments can help people understand and recognise nature's intrinsic knowledge and value.

137 The 2010 supplementary agreement to the 1992 UN Convention on Biodiversity.

138 The level of ambition of the pledges presented thus far by most Amazonian countries is inconsistent with the temperature goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. See https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/ and http://paris-equity-check.org/warming-check.html.

139 Pereira, ‘Reducing Catastrophic Climate Risk’.

140 See Pereira and Viola, ‘Catastrophic Climate Risk’, table 1.

141 Pereira and Viola, ‘Catastrophic Climate Risk’.

142 Dom Phillips, ‘Jair Bolsonaro Launches Assault on Amazon Rainforest Protections’, The Guardian, 2 Jan. 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/02/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-amazon-rainforest-protections?CMP=share_btn_tw.

143 Escobar, Herton, ‘Bolsonaro's First Moves Have Brazilian Scientists Worried’, Science, 363: 6425 (2019), p. 330CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

144 Jan Rocha, ‘Bolsonaro Government Reveals Plan to Develop the “Unproductive Amazon”’, Mongabay, 28 Jan. 2019: https://news.mongabay.com/2019/01/bolsonaro-government-reveals-plan-to-develop-the-unproductive-amazon/.

145 Jenny Gonzales, ‘Brazil Wants to Legalize Agribusiness Leasing of Indigenous Lands’, Mongabay, 21 Feb. 2019: https://news.mongabay.com/2019/02/brazil-wants-to-legalize-agribusiness-leasing-of-indigenous-lands/.

146 Sue Branford and Maurício Torres, ‘Brazil to Open Indigenous Reserves to Mining without Indigenous Consent’, Mongabay, 14 March 2019: https://news.mongabay.com/2019/03/brazil-to-open-indigenous-reserves-to-mining-without-indigenous-consent/.

147 See https://illegalmining.amazoniasocioambiental.org/story.

148 Robert Muggah, Adriana Abdenur and Ilona Szabó, ‘Fighting Climate Change Means Fighting Organized Crime’, Project Syndicate, 12 March 2019: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/amazon-illegal-mining-climate-change-by-robert-muggah-et-al-2019-03?.

149 ‘Brasileiros estão otimistas com governo Bolsonaro’, CNI/IBOPE survey: http://www.portaldaindustria.com.br/estatisticas/rsb-47-perspectivas-bolsonaro/.