Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-gvh9x Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-17T06:36:26.109Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Banking crises and social policy: the case of Latin America and the Caribbean

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 March 2020

Rana S. Gautam*
Affiliation:
Department of Sociology, Social Work, & Anthropology, Christopher Newport University, Newport News, VA, USA
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

Abstract

This paper examines the social policy consequences of systemic banking crises or financial crises in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries between 1990 and 2010. It takes a rationalist approach to political economy to analyse the effect of these crises on aggregate social policy spending and on four distinct social welfare policy programmes – education, health, housing, and social security – benefits of which vary across social groups. The results indicate that banking crises have a statistically strong negative effect on aggregate social expenditure, but the impact is not uniform across the four programmes. While social security spending increases during the course of crises, health and education expenditures decrease in the same period. The results reinforce the view that distributional conflicts overshadow governments’ response and the burden of crises is unevenly shared in a heterogeneous society. These findings are robust to alternative specifications.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 Taylor & Francis

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alesina, A., & Drazen, A. (1991). Why are stabilizations delayed? The American Economic Review, 81(5), 11701188.Google Scholar
Alesina, A., Roubini, N., & Cohen, G. (1997). Political cycles and the macroeconomy. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Avelino, G., Brown, D. S., & Hunter, W. (2005). The effects of capital mobility, trade openness, and democracy on social spending in Latin America, 1980–1999. American Journal of Political Science, 49(3), 625641.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrientos, A. (2004). Latin America: Towards a liberal-informal welfare. In Gough, I. & Wood, G. (Eds.), Insecurity and welfare regimes in Asia, Africa and Latin America (pp. 121168). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Barrientos, A. (2009). Labor markets and the (hyphenated) welfare regime in Latin America. Economy and Society, 38(1), 87108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrientos, A. (2011). Poverty, the crisis and social policy responses in developing countries. In Farnsworth, K. & Irving, Z. (Eds.), Social policy in challenging times: Economic crisis and welfare systems (pp. 101117). Chicago, IL: The Polity Press.Google Scholar
Beck, N. (2001). Time-series-cross-sectional data: What have we learned in the past few years? The Annual Review of Political Science, 4(1), 271293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, T., Clarke, G., Groff, A., Keefer, P., & Walsh, P. (2001). New tools in comparative political economy: The database of political institutions. World Bank Economic Review, 15(1), 165176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Behrendt, C. (2010). Crisis, opportunity and the social protection floor. Global Social Policy, 10(2), 162164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birdsall, N., & Fukuyama, F. (2011). The post-Washington consensus. Foreign Affairs, 90(2), 4553.Google Scholar
Birdsall, N., & Haggard, S. (2002). After the crisis: The social contract and the middle class in East Asia. In Kapstein, E. B. & Milanovic, B. (Eds.), When markets fail: Social policy and economic reform (pp. 58101). New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Castles, F. G. (2010). Black swans and elephants on the move: The impact of emergencies on the welfare state. Journal of European Social Policy, 20(2), 91101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Catalano, R. (2009). Health, medical care, and economic crisis. New England Journal of Medicine, 360(8), 749751.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chang, S.-S., Gunnell, D., Sterne, J. A. C., Lu, T.-H., & Cheng, A. T. A. (2009). Was the economic crisis 1997–98 responsible for rising suicide rates in East/Southeast Asia? A time-trend analysis for Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. Social Science & Medicine, 68, 13221331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, S., & Ravallion, M. (2009). The impact of the global financial crisis on the world's poorest. Retrieved October 30, 2010, from http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3520Google Scholar
Claessens, S., & Kose, M. A. (2013). Financial crises: Explanations, types, and implications. IMF Working Paper. (WP/13/28).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clegg, D. (2010). Labour market policy in the crisis: the UK in comparative perspective. Journal of Poverty and Social Justice, 18(1), 517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, S., & Lam, W. (2011). China's response to crisis: What role for social policy? In Farnsworth, K. & Irving, Z. (Eds.), Social policy in challenging times: Economic crisis and welfare systems (pp. 139158). Chicago, IL: Polity Press.Google Scholar
Croissant, A. (2004). Changing welfare regimes in East and Southeast Asia: Crisis, change, and challenge. Social Policy & Administration, 38(5), 504524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dohner, R., & Haggard, S. (1994). The political feasibility of adjustment in the Philippines. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. (2007). Social panorama of Latin America. Santiago, Chile: UN.Google Scholar
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. (2012). Database and statistical publications: Statistics and indicators. Retrieved December 27, 2012, from http://websie.eclac.cl/sisgen/ConsultaIntegrada.asp?idAplicacion=1&idTema=6&idioma=iGoogle Scholar
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. (2013). Social panorama of Latin America. Santiago, Chile: UN.Google Scholar
Elson, D. (1995). Gender awareness in modeling structural adjustment. World Development, 23(11), 18511868.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elson, D. (2010). Gender and the global economic crisis in the developing countries: A framework for analysis. Gender & Development, 18(2), 201212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farnsworth, K., & Irving, Z. (Eds.). (2011). Social policy in challenging times: Economic crisis and welfare systems. Chicago, IL: The Polity Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Filgueira, F. (2005). Welfare and democracy in Latin America: The development, crises and aftermath of universal, dual and exclusionary social state. Geneva, Switzerland: UNRISD.Google Scholar
Florio, M. (2002). Economists, privatization in Russia and the waning of the ‘Washington consensus’. Review of International Political Economy, 9(2), 374415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franzese, R. J. (2002). Macroeconomic policies of developed democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frieden, J. A. (2006). Global capitalism: Its fall and rise in the twentieth century. New York, NY: W.W. Norton.Google Scholar
Friedman, J., & Thomas, D. (2007). Psychological health before, during and after an economic crisis: Results from Indonesia, 1993–2003. Washington, DC: World Bank.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greve, B. (Ed.). (2011). The times they are changing? Crisis and the welfare state [Special Issue]. Social Policy & Administration, 45(4), 333337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gupta, S., Dicks-Mireaux, L., Khemani, R., McDonald, C., & Verhoeven, M. (2000). Social issues in IMF-supported programs. Washington, DC: IMF.Google Scholar
Haggard, S., & Kaufman, R. R. (2008). Development, democracy, and welfare state. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Heston, A., Summers, R., & Aten, B. (2012). Penn World Table version 7.1, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania. Retrieved December 25, 2012, from http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/phpsite/pwt70/pwt70form.phpGoogle Scholar
Hodgkin, D., & Karpman, H. E. (2010). Economic crises and public spending on mental health care. International Journal of Mental Health, 39(2), 91106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
ILO. (2009). The financial and economic crisis: A decent work response. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
IMF. (n.d). IMF members’ financial data by country. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved December 25, 2012, from http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exfin1.aspxCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Janvry, A. d., Graham, A., Sadoulet, E., Espinel, R., Spurrier, W., Nissen, H.-P., & Welsch, F. (1994). The political feasibility of adjustment in Ecuador and Venezuela. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Kaminsky, G. L., Reinhart, C. M., & Vegh, C. A. (2004). When it rains it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. NBER Working Paper Series (w10780).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaufman, R. R. (1989). The politics of economic adjustment policy in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico: Experiences in the 1980s and challenges for the future. Policy Science, 22, 395413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaufman, R. R., & Segura-Ubiergo, A. (2001). Globalization, domestic politics, and social spending in Latin America: A time-series cross-section analysis, 1973–97. World Politics, 53(4), 553587.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kawewe, S. M., & Dibie, R. (2000). The impact of economic structural adjustment programs [ESAPs] on women and children implications for social welfare in Zimbabwe. Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare, XXVII(4), 79107.Google Scholar
Ku, I. (2007). Social welfare reforms since the 1997 economic crisis in Korea: Achievements, limits, and future prospects. Asian Social Work and Policy Review, 1(1), 2135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kwon, H.-j. (2009). The reform of the developmental welfare state in East Asia. International Journal of Social Welfare, 18(s1), S12S21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kwon, S. (2001). Economic crisis and social policy reform in Korea. International Journal of Social Welfare, 10, 97106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kwon, S., & Holliday, I. (2007). The Korean welfare state: A paradox of expansion in an era of globalization and economic crisis. International Journal of Social Welfare, 16, 242248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laeven, L., & Valencia, F. (2008). Systemic banking crises: A new database. (WP\08\224).Google Scholar
Laeven, L., & Valencia, F. (2010). Resolution of banking crises: The good, the bad, and the ugly. IMF Working Paper. (WP\10\146).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laeven, L., & Valencia, F. (2012). Systemic banking crises database: An update. IMF Working Paper. (WP\12\163).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, E. (1998). The Asian financial crisis: The challenges for social policy. Geneva: ILO.Google Scholar
Lee, E. W. Y. (2005). The renegotiation of social pact in Hong Kong: Economic globalization, socio-economic change, and local politics. Journal of Social Policy, 34(2), 293310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, M. G., & Jagger, K. (2011). Polity IV project: Political regime characteristics and transition, 1800–2010. Dataset User's Manual. Retrieved December 25, 2012, from http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2007.pdfGoogle Scholar
Mesquita, B. B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2005). The logic of political survival. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.Google Scholar
Mishra, R. (1999). Globalization and the welfare state. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Mkandawire, T. (Ed.). (2004). Social policy in a development context. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan\UNRISD.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mpedi, G. (2009). Impact of the global economic crisis on social security systems in Africa. Journal of Social Development in Africa, 24(2), 123138.Google Scholar
Nelson, J. M. (Ed.). (1990). Economic crisis and policy choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Nooruddin, I., & Simmons, J. W. (2006). The politics of hard choices: IMF programs and government spending. International Organization, 60, 10011033.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ocampo, J. A. (2005). Beyond the Washington consensus: What do we mean? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27(2), 293314.Google Scholar
Pierson, P. (2000). Increasing returns, path dependence, and the study of politics. The American Political Science Review, 94(2), 251267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prasad, N., & Gerecke, M. (2010). Social security spending in times of crisis. Global Social Policy, 10(2), 218247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, A. (1991). Democracy and the market. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ravallion, M. (2008). Bailing out the world's poorest. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. (WPS4763).Google Scholar
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2008). Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace. NBER Working Paper Series (14587), 1–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009 ). This time is different. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Remmer, K. L. (1990). Democracy and economic crisis: The Latin American experience. World Politics, 42(3), 315335.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riesco, M. (2009). Latin America: A new developmental welfare state model in the making? International Journal of Social Welfare, 18(s1), s22s36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodrik, D. (1993). The positive economics of policy reform. The American Economic Review, 83(2), 356361.Google Scholar
Rudra, N. (2004). Openness, welfare spending, and inequality in the developing world. International Studies Quarterly, 48, 683709.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schäfer, A., & Streeck, W. (Eds.). (2012). Politics in the age of austerity. Malden, MA: The Polity Press.Google Scholar
Segura-Ubiergo, A. (2007). The political economy of the welfare state in Latin America. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaefer, L. H. (2010). Nonstandard work and economic crisis: What changes should we expect? Journal of Poverty, 14, 1732.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shin, D.-M. (2000). Financial crisis and social security: The paradox of the Republic of Korea. International Social Security Review, 53(3), 83107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stiglitz, J. (1999). Responding to economic crises: Policy alternatives for equitable development. The Manchester School, 67(5), 409427.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stuckler, D., Basu, S., Suhrcke, M., Coutts, A., & McKee, M. (2009). The public health effect of economic crises and alternative policy responses in Europe: An empirical analysis. The Lancet, 374, 315323.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Torres, R. (2010). Incomplete crisis responses: Socio-economic costs and policy implications. International Labour Review, 149(2), 227237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Unal-Karaguven, M. H. (2009). Psychological impact of an economic crisis: A conservation of resource approach. International Journal of Stress Management, 16(3), 177194 doi: 10.1037/a0016840CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Census Bureau. (2011). Income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in United States: 2010 (Tech. Rep.). U.S. Census Bureau.Google Scholar
Vis, B., Kersbergen, K. v., & Hylands, T. (2011). To what extent did the financial crisis intensify the pressure to reform the welfare state? Social Policy & Administration, 45(4), 338353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vreeland, J. R. (2007). The international monetary fund: Politics of conditional lending. New York, NY: Routledge.Google Scholar
World Bank. (2008). Lessons from World Bank research on financial crisis (Tech. Rep.). World Bank.Google Scholar