Hostname: page-component-669899f699-8p65j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-24T13:30:16.776Z Has data issue: true hasContentIssue false

The political economy of China's Belt and Road Initiative

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 September 2024

Gregory W. Caskey*
Affiliation:
The Citadel, The Military College of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the Chinese government's effort to promote global development and interconnectivity through a vast network of transportation, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure projects. Involving over 140 countries, Beijing has clearly stated aims and methods for the Belt and Road, including that BRI contributes to economic development in participant countries and that all projects be carried out according to ‘five cooperation priorities’ representing win–win partnerships between China and BRI-participant countries. Taking China's stated aims as given, this paper argues that Beijing faces information and institutional constraints that prevent the successful planning, implementation, and operation of BRI. By employing ill-suited means to achieve their stated ends, Beijing undermines their own ability to carry out BRI successfully. This paper explores the mechanisms at work on the ground within BRI, utilizing case studies of BRI's flagship projects and BRI contract data as evidence for the theory.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Millennium Economics Ltd.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Aamir, A. (2018). China's Belt and Road plans dismay Pakistan's poorest province. Financial Times. 14 June. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/c4b78fe0-5399-11e8-84f4-43d65af59d43Google Scholar
Aamir, A. (2021). China-Pakistan Belt and Road Initiative hits buffers. Financial Times. 7 December. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/da199e37-e85a-4c76-a52e-9811f9b89713Google Scholar
Acker, K. and Brautigam, D. (2021). Twenty Years of Data on China's Africa Lending (Briefing Paper, No. 04/2021). China Africa Research Initiative (CARI); School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University.Google Scholar
Aoki, M. (2001). Toward a Comparative Institutional Analysis. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Arranz, M. H. and Marcelo Duhalde, A. (2017a). Khorgos: The biggest dry port in the world. South China Morning Post. Available at http://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/khorgos.htmlGoogle Scholar
Arranz, M. H. and Marcelo Duhalde, A. (2017b). The five main projects of the Belt and Road Initiative. South China Morning Post. Available at https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/index.html?module=hard_link&pgtype=articleGoogle Scholar
Asian Development Bank (2017). Meeting Asia's Infrastructure Needs. Mandaluyong, Philippines: Asian Development Bank. Available at https://www.adb.org/publications/asia-infrastructure-needsGoogle Scholar
Balding, C. (2018). Why democracies are turning against Belt and Road. 24 October. Available at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-10-24/why-democracies-are-turning-against-belt-and-roadGoogle Scholar
Barder, O. M. (2009). Beyond planning: markets and networks for better aid. Center for Global Development Working Paper, 185.Google Scholar
Benson, B. L. (1989). The spontaneous evolution of commercial law. Southern Economic Journal 55(3), 644661.Google Scholar
Blanchette, J. and Hillman, J. (2020). China's Digital Silk Road after the Coronavirus. 13 April. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies. Available at https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-digital-silk-road-after-coronavirusGoogle Scholar
Boettke, P. J. (1993). Why Perestroika Failed. London, UK: Routledge.Google Scholar
Boettke, P. J. (2001). Why culture matters. In Boettke P. J. (ed.), Calculation and Coordination: Essays on Socialism and Transitional Political Economy. London, UK: Routledge, pp. 248265.Google Scholar
Boettke, P. J. and Leeson, P. T. (2004). Liberalism, socialism, and robust political economy. Journal of Markets and Morality 7(1), 99111.Google Scholar
Boettke, P. J., Coyne, C. J. and Leeson, P. T. (2008). Institutional stickiness and the new development economics. American Journal of Economics and Sociology 67(2), 331358.Google Scholar
Brautigam, D. (2019). Misdiagnosing the Chinese Infrastructure Push. The American Interest. 4 April. Available at https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/04/04/misdiagnosing-the-chinese-infrastructure-push/Google Scholar
Brautigam, D. (2020). A critical look at Chinese ‘debt-trap diplomacy’: the rise of a meme. Area Development and Policy 5(1), 114.Google Scholar
Brazys, S. and Dukalskis, A. (2019). Rising powers and grassroots image management: Confucius institutes and China in the media. The Chinese Journal of International Politics 12(4), 557584. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poz012Google Scholar
Buchanan, J. M. (1964). What should economists do? Southern Economic Journal 30(3), 213222. https://doi.org/10.2307/1055931Google Scholar
Cai, P. (2017). Understanding China's Belt and Road Initiative. Sydney, Australia: Lowy Institute for International Policy, p. 26.Google Scholar
Cai, M., Murtazashvili, I. and Murtazashvili, J. (2020). The politics of land property rights. Journal of Institutional Economics 16(2), 151167. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137419000158Google Scholar
Casella, A. and Rauch, J. E. (2002). Anonymous market and group ties in international trade. Journal of International Economics 58(1), 1947.Google Scholar
Chaisse, J. and Kirkwood, J. (2020). Chinese puzzle: anatomy of the (invisible) Belt and Road Investment treaty. Journal of International Economic Law 23(1), 245269. https://doi.org/10.1093/jiel/jgz047Google Scholar
Chaisse, J. and Matsushita, M. (2018). China's ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative: mapping the world trade normative and strategic implications. Journal of World Trade 52(1), 164185. Available at https://kluwerlawonline.com/api/Product/CitationPDFURL?file=Journals\TRAD\TRAD2018008.pdfGoogle Scholar
Chatzky, A. and McBride, J. (2020). China's Massive Belt and Road Initiative. New York, NY: Council on Foreign Relations. 28 January. Available at https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiativeGoogle Scholar
Coyne, C. J. (2008). After War: The Political Economy of Exporting Democracy. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Coyne, C. J. (2013). Doing Bad by Doing Good: Why Humanitarian Action Fails. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Coyne, C. J. and Hall, A. R. (2018). Tyranny Comes Home: The Domestic Fate of US Militarism. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Coyne, C. J. and Moberg, L. (2015). The political economy of state-provided targeted benefits. The Review of Austrian Economics 28(3), 337356. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11138-014-0274-8Google Scholar
Custer, S., Russell, B., DiLorenzo, M., Cheng, M., Ghose, S., Desai, H., Sims, J. and Turner, J. (2018). Ties that Bind: Quantifying China's Public Diplomacy and its ‘Good Neighbor’ Effect. Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary.Google Scholar
Custer, S., Sethi, T., Solis, J. A., Lin, J. J., Ghose, S., Gupta, A., Knight, R. and Baehr, A. (2019). Silk Road Diplomacy: Deconstructing Beijing's Toolkit to Influence South and Central Asia. Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary.Google Scholar
Davies, A. and Mackenzie, I. (2014). Project complexity and systems integration: Constructing the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics Games. International journal of project management 32(5), 773790.Google Scholar
de la Rasilla, I. (2021). ‘Sharp ears to hear a thunderclap’? The rise of mediation in the international dispute prevention and settlement system of the Belt and Road Initiative. Asia Pacific Law Review 29(1), 167188. https://doi.org/10.1080/10192557.2021.2013664Google Scholar
De Soyres, F. (2018). The growth and welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on East Asia Pacific countries. World Bank Group, 4.Google Scholar
Downs, E. (2019). China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Power Projects: Insights into Environmental and Debt Sustainability. New York, NY: SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Available at https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/china-pakistan-economic-corridor-power-projects-insights-environmental-and-debt-sustainabilityGoogle Scholar
Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Parks, B., Strange, A. and Tierney, M. J. (2017). Aid, China, and growth: evidence from a new global development finance dataset. AidData Working Paper, #46.Google Scholar
Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Hodler, R., Parks, B. C., Raschky, P. A. and Tierney, M. J. (2019). African leaders and the geography of China's foreign assistance. Journal of Development Economics 140, 4471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.003Google Scholar
Economy, E. (2018). The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Flyvbjerg, B. (2013). Quality control and due diligence in project management: Getting decisions right by taking the outside view. International Journal of Project Management 31(5), 760774.Google Scholar
Flyvbjerg, B. (2014). What you should know about megaprojects, and why: an overview. Project Management Journal 45(2), 619. https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21409Google Scholar
Flyvbjerg, B. (2017). Introduction: the iron law of megaproject management. In Flyvbjerg, B. (ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, pp. 118. Available at https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2742088Google Scholar
Fourie, J., Rosselló, J. and Santana-Gallego, M. (2015). Religion, religious diversity and tourism. Kyklos 68(1), 5164. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12066Google Scholar
Gelpern, A., Horn, S., Morris, S., Parks, B. and Trebesch, C. (2021). How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments (573; CGD Working Paper). Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. Available at https://www.cgdev.org/publication/how-china-lends-rare-look-into-100-debt-contracts-foreign-governmentsGoogle Scholar
Guiso, L., Sapienza, P. and Zingales, L. (2009). Cultural biases in economic exchange? The Quarterly Journal of Economics 124(3), 10951131.Google Scholar
Hayek, F. A. (1945). The use of knowledge in society. The American Economic Review 35(4), 519530.Google Scholar
Hayek, F. A. (1973). Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 1: Rules and Order, Vol. 1. London, UK: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Helble, M. (2007). Is God good for trade? Kyklos 60(3), 385413.Google Scholar
Henrekson, M. and Sanandaji, T. (2011). The interaction of entrepreneurship and institutions. Journal of Institutional Economics 7(1), 4775. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137410000342Google Scholar
Hillman, J. E. (2018). China's Belt and Road Initiative: Five Years Later. U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington, DC: U.S. Congress.Google Scholar
Hillman, J. E. (2020). The Emperor's New Road: China and the Project of the Century. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Hirschman, A. O. (1967). Development Projects Observed. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Horn, S., Reinhart, C. M. and Trebesch, C. (2021). China's overseas lending. Journal of International Economics 133, 103539.Google Scholar
Hurley, J., Morris, S. and Portelance, G. (2019). Examining the debt implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a policy perspective. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development 3(1), 139175.Google Scholar
Ikeda, S. (1997). Dynamics of the Mixed Economy: Toward a Theory of Interventionism. London, UK: Routledge.Google Scholar
Ikeda, S. (2024). A City Cannot Be a Work of Art: Learning Economics and Social Theory from Jane Jacobs. New York, NY: Springer Nature.Google Scholar
Jaborov, S. (2018). Chinese loans in Central Asia: Development assistance or ‘predatory lending’. In Laruelle M. (ed.), China's Belt and Road Initiative and Its Impact in Central Asia. Washington, DC: Central Asia Program at The George Washington University, pp. 3440.Google Scholar
Jacobs, J. (1961). The Death and Life of Great American Cities. New York, NY: Vintage.Google Scholar
James, M. J. (1999). Trait-taking versus trait-making in technical choice: the case of Africa. Journal of International Development 11, 797810.Google Scholar
Jochec, M. and Jenish Kyzy, J. (2018). China's BRI investments, risks, and opportunities in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. In Laruelle M. (ed.), China's Belt and Road Initiative and Its Impact on Central Asia. Washington, DC: George Washington University, pp. 6776.Google Scholar
Jones, L. and Zeng, J. (2019). Understanding China's ‘Belt and Road Initiative’: beyond ‘grand strategy’ to a state transformation analysis. Third World Quarterly 40(8), 14151439. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1559046Google Scholar
Kong, Q., Chen, A., Shen, C. and Wong, Z. (2021). Has the Belt and Road Initiative improved the quality of economic growth in China's cities? International Review of Economics & Finance 76, 870883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.07.001Google Scholar
Kynge, J. (2023). China grants billions in bailouts as Belt and Road Initiative falters. Financial Times. 28 March. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/9b2cb53f-e6f0-479e-bb94-a2e0c8680e88Google Scholar
Lain, S. (2018). The potential and pitfalls of connectivity along the Silk Road Economic Belt. In Laruelle M. (ed.), China's Belt and Road Initiative and Its Impact in Central Asia. Washington, DC, pp. 110.Google Scholar
Lavoie, D. (1985a). National Economic Planning: What is Left?, 1st Edn. Fairfax, VA: Mercatus Center at George Mason University.Google Scholar
Lavoie, D. (1985b). Rivalry and Central Planning: The Socialist Calculation Debate Reconsidered. Fairfax, VA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Leahy, J., Kynge, J. and Parkin, B. (2023). Ten years of China's Belt and Road: What has $1 tn achieved? Financial Times. 22 October. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/83501dd5-fe6d-4169-9d83-28a8cf46e681Google Scholar
Leeson, P. T. (2005). Endogenizing fractionalization. Journal of Institutional Economics 1(1), 7598.Google Scholar
Leeson, P. T. (2008). Social distance and self-enforcing exchange. The Journal of Legal Studies 37(1), 161188.Google Scholar
Leeson, P. T. (2010). How much order can spontaneous order create? In Boettke P. J. (ed.), Handbook on Contemporary Austrian Economics. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 136153.Google Scholar
Lenfle, S. and Loch, C. (2010). Lost roots: How project management came to emphasize control over flexibility and novelty. California Management Review 53(1), 3255.Google Scholar
Leng, S. (2019). Why was China sending empty cargo containers by rail to Europe? South China Morning Post. 20 August. Available at https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3023574/chinas-belt-and-road-cargo-europe-under-scrutiny-operatorGoogle Scholar
Lu, Y., Gu, W. and Zeng, K. (2021). Does the Belt and Road Initiative promote bilateral political relations? China & World Economy 29(5), 5783. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12387Google Scholar
Maçães, B. (2019). Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. London, UK: Hurst.Google Scholar
Malik, A. A., Parks, B., Russell, B., Lin, J. J., Walsh, K., Solomon, K., Zhang, S., Elston, T.-B. and Goodman, S. (2021). Banking on the Belt and Road. Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary. Available at https://www.aiddata.org/publications/banking-on-the-belt-and-roadGoogle Scholar
Marcoux, J.-M. and Sylvestre-Fleury, J. (2022). China's contestation of international norms on state-owned enterprises and government procurement through the Belt and Road Initiative. Asia Pacific Law Review 30(2), 325347. https://doi.org/10.1080/10192557.2022.2085413Google Scholar
Miller, T. (2019). China's Asian Dream: Empire Building along the New Silk Road. London, UK: Zed Books Ltd.Google Scholar
Mises, L. V. (1920). Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth. London, UK: Ludwig von Mises Institute.Google Scholar
Moberg, L. (2015). The political economy of special economic zones. Journal of Institutional Economics 11(1), 167190. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137414000241Google Scholar
Mundy, S. and Hille, K. (2019). The Maldives counts the cost of its debts to China. Financial Times. 11 February. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/c8da1c8a-2a19-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8Google Scholar
OECD (2018). OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018. Paris, France: OECD Publishing. Available at https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/oecd-business-and-finance-outlook-2018_9789264298828-enGoogle Scholar
Otteburn, K. and Marx, A. (2022). A glass half-empty or half-full? An assessment of the labour provisions in the CAI from Chinese and European perspectives. The Journal of World Investment & Trade 23(4), 601627. https://doi.org/10.1163/22119000-12340262Google Scholar
Parks, B. (2019). Chinese Leadership and the Future of BRI: What Key Decisions Lie Ahead?. Washington, DC: Center For Global Development. 24 July. Available at https://www.cgdev.org/publication/chinese-leadership-and-future-bri-what-key-decisions-lie-aheadGoogle Scholar
Picciotto, R. (2015). Hirschman's ideas as evaluation tools. Journal of MultiDisciplinary Evaluation 11(24), 111.Google Scholar
Platteau, J.-P. (2000). Institutions, Social Norms and Economic Development. London, UK: Harwood Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Polk, A. (2018). China is Quietly Setting Global Standards – Bloomberg. Bloomberg. 6 May. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-05-06/china-is-quietly-setting-global-standardsGoogle Scholar
Publish What You Fund (2020). Aid Transparency Index 2020. Publish What You Fund. Available at https://www.publishwhatyoufund.org/the-index/2020/Google Scholar
Rajan, R. (2004). Assume anarchy. Finance and Development 41(3), 5657.Google Scholar
Rauch, J. E. (2001). Business and social networks in international trade. Journal of Economic Literature 39(4), 11771203.Google Scholar
Rauch, J. E. and Trindade, V. (2002). Ethnic Chinese networks in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics 84(1), 116130. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302317331955Google Scholar
Reed, T. and Trubetskoy, A. (2019). Assessing the value of market access from belt and road projects. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 8815.Google Scholar
Rolland, N. (2019a). Beijing's response to the Belt and Road Initiative's ‘pushback’: a story of assessment and adaptation. Asian Affairs 50(2), 216235. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2019.1602385Google Scholar
Rolland, N. (2019b). A Concise Guide to the Belt and Road Initiative. Washington, DC: The National Bureau of Asian Research. 11 April. Available at https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-guide-to-the-belt-and-road-initiative/Google Scholar
Ruehl, H. (2019). The Khorgos Hype on the Belt and Road. The Diplomat. 27 September. Available at https://thediplomat.com/2019/09/the-khorgos-hype-on-the-belt-and-road/Google Scholar
Sharma, V. B. (2023). A Decadal Appraisal of the $62 Billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. Modern Diplomacy. 31 October. Available at https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/10/31/a-decadal-appraisal-of-the-62-billion-china-pakistan-economic-corridor/Google Scholar
Shepard, W. (2016). The Story Behind The World's Emptiest International Airport. Forbes. 26 May. Available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/05/28/the-story-behind-the-worlds-emptiest-international-airport-sri-lankas-mattala-rajapaksa/Google Scholar
Shepard, W. (2020a). Inside The Belt and Road's Premier White Elephant: Melaka Gateway. Forbes. Available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2020/01/31/inside-the-belt-and-roads-premier-white-elephant-melaka-gateway/Google Scholar
Shepard, W. (2020b). How China is Losing Support for Its Belt and Road Initiative. Forbes. 8 February. Available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2020/02/28/how-beijing-is-losing-support-for-its-belt-and-road-initiative/Google Scholar
Standish, R. (2019). China's Path Forward is Getting Bumpy. The Atlantic. 1 October. Available at https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/10/china-belt-road-initiative-problems-kazakhstan/597853/Google Scholar
State Council of the People's Republic of China (2015). Full Text: Action Plan on the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing, China: State Council of the People's Republic of China. Available at http://www.fmcoprc.gov.hk/eng/Topics/ydyl/t1383426.htmGoogle Scholar
Sukumaran, T. (2020). Did a Belt and Road project in Malaysia just crash and burn? South China Morning Post. 17 November. Available at https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3110252/did-belt-and-road-project-malaysia-just-crash-and-burnGoogle Scholar
Tonchev, P. (2020). The Belt and Road after COVID-19. The Diplomat. 7 April. Available at https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/the-belt-and-road-after-covid-19/Google Scholar
Wang, C., Lim, M. K., Zhang, X., Zhao, L. and Lee, P. T.-W. (2020). Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 134, 288307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.02.009Google Scholar
World Bank (2019). Belt and Road Economics: Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.Google Scholar
Xi, J. (2017). Full Text of President Xi's Speech at Opening of Belt and Road Forum. Beijing: Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. Available at https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/201705/t20170527_678618.htmlGoogle Scholar
Xinhua (2021). China has signed 205 cooperation documents on the joint construction of the ‘Belt and Road’. news.cn. Xinhua News Agency. 30 January. Available at http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-01/30/content_5583711.htmGoogle Scholar
Ye, M. (2019). Fragmentation and mobilization: domestic politics of the Belt and Road in China. Journal of Contemporary China 28(119), 696711. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1580428Google Scholar
Zhang, D. and Smith, G. (2017). China's foreign aid system: structure, agencies, and identities. Third World Quarterly 38(10), 23302346.Google Scholar