Basal motion is the primary mechanism for ice flux in Greenland, yet a widely applicable model for predicting it remains elusive. This is due to the difficulty in both observing small-scale bed properties and predicting a time-varying water pressure on which basal motion putatively depends. We take a Bayesian approach to these problems by coupling models of ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology and conditioning on observations of surface velocity in southwestern Greenland to infer the posterior probability distributions for eight spatially and temporally constant parameters governing the behavior of both the sliding law and hydrologic model. Because the model is computationally expensive, characterization of these distributions using classical Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is intractable. We skirt this issue by training a neural network as a surrogate that approximates the model at a sliver of the computational cost. We find that surface velocity observations establish strong constraints on model parameters relative to a prior distribution and also elucidate correlations, while the model explains 60% of observed variance. However, we also find that several distinct configurations of the hydrologic system and stress regime are consistent with observations, underscoring the need for continued data collection and model development.

Proglacial braided river systems discharge large volumes of meltwater from ice sheets and transport coarse-grained sediments from the glaciated areas to the oceans. Here, we test the hypothesis if high-energy hydrological events can leave distinctive signatures in the sedimentary record of braided river systems. We characterize the morphology and infer a mode of formation of a 25 km long and 1–3 km wide Early Pleistocene incised valley recently imaged in 3-D seismic data in the Hoop area, SW Barents Sea. The fluvial system, named Bjørnelva River Valley, carved 20 m deep channels into Lower Cretaceous bedrock at a glacial paleo-surface and deposited 28 channel bars along a paleo-slope gradient of ~0.64 m km−1. The landform morphologies and position relative to the paleo-surface support that Bjørnelva River Valley was formed in the proglacial domain of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet. Based on valley width and valley depth, we suggest that Bjørnelva River Valley represents a braided river system fed by violent outburst floods from a glacial lake, with estimated outburst discharges of ~160 000 m3 s−1. The morphological configuration of Bjørnelva River Valley can inform geohazard assessments in areas at risk of outburst flooding today and is an analogue for landscapes evolving in areas currently covered by the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Our understanding of the subglacial drainage system has improved markedly over the last decades due to field observations and numerical modelling. However, integrating data into increasingly complex numerical models remain challenging. Here we infer two-dimensional subglacial channel networks and hydraulic parameters for Gorner Glacier, Switzerland, based on available field data at five specific times (snapshots) across the melt season of 2005. The field dataset is one of the most complete available, including borehole water pressure, tracer experiments and meteorological variables. Yet, these observations are still too sparse to fully characterize the drainage system and thus, a unique solution is neither expected nor desirable. We use a geostatistical generator and a steady-state water flow model to produce a set of subglacial channel networks that are consistent with measured water pressure and tracer-transit times. Field data are used to infer hydraulic and morphological parameters of the channels under the assumption that the location of channels persists during the melt season. Results indicate that it is possible to identify locations where subglacial channels are more likely. In addition, we show that different network structures can equally satisfy the field data, which support the use of a stochastic approach to infer unobserved subglacial features.

Ice stream discharge responds to a balance between gravity, basal friction and lateral drag. Appreciable viscous heating occurs in shear margins between ice streams and adjacent slow-moving ice ridges, altering the temperature-dependent viscosity distribution that connects lateral drag to marginal strain rates and ice stream velocity. Warmer ice deforms more easily and accommodates faster flow, whereas cold ice supplied from ice ridges drives advective cooling that counteracts viscous heating. Here, we present a two-dimensional (three velocity component), steady-state model designed to explore the thermal controls on ice stream shear margins. We validate our treatment through comparison with observed velocities for Bindschadler Ice Stream and verify that calculated temperatures are consistent with results from previous studies. Sweeping through a parameter range that encompasses conditions representative of ice streams in Antarctica, we show that modeled steady-state velocity has a modest response to different choices in forcing up until temperate zones develop in the shear margins. When temperate zones are present, velocity is much more sensitive to changes in forcing. We identify key scalings for the emergence of temperate conditions in our idealized treatment that can be used to identify where thermo-mechanical feedbacks influence the evolution of the ice sheet.

Advances in analytical methods have made it possible to obtain high-resolution water isotopic data from ice cores. Their spectral signature contains information on the diffusion process that attenuated the isotopic signal during the firn densification process. Here, we provide a tool for estimating firn-diffusion rates that builds on the Community Firn Model. Our model requires two main inputs, temperature and accumulation, and it calculates the diffusion lengths for δ17O, δ18O and δD. Prior information on the isotopic signal of the precipitation is not a requirement. In combination with deconvolution techniques, diffusion lengths can be used in order reconstruct the pre-diffusion isotopic signal. Furthermore, the temperature dependence of the isotope diffusion and firn densification makes the diffusion length an interesting candidate as a temperature proxy. We test the model under steady state and transient scenarios and compare four densification models. Comparisons with ice core data provide an evaluation of the four models and indicate that there are differences in their performance. Combining data-based diffusion length estimates with information on past accumulation rates and ice flow thinning, we reconstruct absolute temperatures from three Antarctic ice core sites.

During the last few decades, the lake-terminating glaciers in the Himalaya have receded faster than the land-terminating glaciers as proglacial lakes have exacerbated the mass loss of their host glaciers. Monitoring the impacts of glacier recession and dynamics on lake extent and water volume provides an approach to assess the mass interplay between glaciers and proglacial lakes. We describe the recession of Longbasaba Glacier and estimate the mass wastage and its contribution to the water volume of its proglacial lake. The results show that the glacier area has decreased by 3% during 1988–2018, with a more variable recession prior to 2008 than in the last decade. Longbasaba Lake has expanded by 164% in area and 237% in water volume, primarily as a result of meltwater inflow produced from surface lowering of the glacier. Over the periods 1988–2000 and 2000–18, the mass loss contributed by glacier thinning has decreased from 81 to 61% of the total mass loss, accompanied by a nearly doubled contribution from terminus retreat. With the current rate of retreat, Longbasaba glacier is expected to terminate in its proglacial lake for another four decades. The hazard risk of this lake is expected to continue to increase in the near future because of the projected continued glacier mass loss and related lake expansion.

Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios.

As a result of climate warming, glacial meltwater discharge has been increasing in Greenland. During the summers of 2015 and 2016, there were rapid increases in discharge from Qaanaaq Glacier in northwestern Greenland. These discharges resulted in floods that destroyed the road linking the settlement of Qaanaaq to Qaanaaq Airport. Field measurements were performed and a numerical model of glacier runoff was developed to quantify these discharges. The high discharge associated with the 2015 flood, estimated at 9.1 m3 s−1 (hourly mean), resulted from intensive glacier melting due to warm air temperature and strong winds, while the high discharge associated with the 2016 flood resulted from heavy rainfall (90 mm d−1) that led to a peak discharge estimated at 19.9 m3 s−1. The developed model, when used to investigate future glacier runoff under warming conditions, revealed a nonlinear increase in glacial melt with increasing temperature. Additionally, the model forecasted a threefold increase in total summer discharge, owing to a 4 °C rise in temperature. Thus, this study quantified the impact of a changing climate on glacier runoff, which gives insight into future risks of flood hazards along the coast of Greenland.

In this study, we use aerial photographs, satellite imagery and field observations to quantify changes in the area, terminus length, snowline elevation and surface elevation of eight glaciers in the Alexandra Fiord region, eastern Ellesmere Island, between 1959 and 2019. Comparisons to written and pictorial descriptions from the British Arctic Expedition extend the record of change in terminus position and surface elevation to 1875 for Twin Glacier. Glacier area at Alexandra Fiord decreased by a total of 15.77 ± 0.65 km2 (11.77 ± 0.49%) between 1959 and 2019, the mean end of summer snowline increased in elevation by 360 ± 84 m (8 ± 2 m a−1) between 1974 and 2019, and the glaciers thinned at an average rate of 0.60 ± 0.06 m a−1 between 2001 and 2018. Annual rates of terminus retreat were ~3–5 times higher over the period 1974–2019 compared to 1875–1974, and rates of thinning were ~2–3 times higher over 2001–18 compared to 1875–2001. Our results are consistent with rates of change determined for other glaciers of similar size on Ellesmere Island, and with accelerated rates of ice loss coincident with regional increases in air temperature of ~1.5°C since the early 1980s.

Stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δD) in Antarctic snow and ice are basic proxy indices of climate in ice core studies. The relation between the ratios has important indicative significance for moisture sources. In general, the fractionation characteristics of the two isotopes vary with different meteorological and topographical conditions. This paper presents the spatial and temporal distribution of meteoric water line (MWL) slopes along a traverse from the Zhongshan Station (ZSS) to Dome A in East Antarctica. It is found that the slopes decrease with the increasing distance inland from the coast and the lowest slope occurred at Dome A, where the long-range transported moisture dominates and clear sky snowing have an influence. The slopes in different layers of the snowpack showed a decreasing trend with depth and this is attributed to the fractionation during the interstitial sublimation and re-condensation processes of the water vapor. Frost flower development on the interior plateau surface can greatly alter the depth evolution of the MWL slope. The coastal snow pits also go through the post-depositional smoothing effect, but their influences are not so significant as the inland regions.

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g cm−3. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm a−1 subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt a−1, inland WA is −3.5 mm a−1 at 66 Gt a−1, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm a−1 at −95 Gt a−1. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt a−1, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt a−1 during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt a−1 from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt a−1 by 2012–16.

During the last few decades, bed-elevation profiles from radar sounders have been used to quantify bed roughness. Various methods have been employed, such as the ‘two-parameter’ technique that considers vertical and slope irregularities in topography, but they struggle to incorporate roughness at multiple spatial scales leading to a breakdown in their depiction of bed roughness where the relief is most complex. In this article, we describe a new algorithm, analogous to wavelet transformations, to quantify the bed roughness at multiple scales. The ‘Self-Adaptive Two-Parameter’ system calculates the roughness of a bed profile using a frequency-domain method, allowing the extraction of three characteristic factors: (1) slope, (2) skewness and (3) coefficient of variation. The multi-scale roughness is derived by weighted-summing of these frequency-related factors. We use idealized bed elevations to initially validate the algorithm, and then actual bed-elevation data are used to compare the new roughness index with other methods. We show the new technique is an effective tool for quantifying bed roughness from radar data, paving the way for improved continental-wide depictions of bed roughness and incorporation of this information into ice flow models.

Bulk directional enhancement factors are determined for axisymmetric (girdle and single-maximum) orientation fabrics using a transversely isotropic grain rheology with an orientation-dependent non-linear grain fluidity. Compared to grain fluidities that are simplified as orientation independent, we find that bulk strain-rate enhancements for intermediate-to-strong axisymmetric fabrics can be up to a factor of ten larger, assuming stress homogenization over the polycrystal scale. Our work thus extends previous results based on simple basal slip (Schmid) grain rheologies to the transversely isotropic rheology, which has implications for large-scale anisotropic ice-flow modelling that relies on a transversely isotropic grain rheology. In order to derive bulk enhancement factors for arbitrary evolving fabrics, we expand the c-axis distribution in terms of a spherical harmonic series, which allows the rheology-required structure tensors through order eight to easily be calculated and provides an alternative to current structure-tensor-based modelling.