We propose a two-dimensional model of three-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard convection in the limit of very high Prandtl number and Rayleigh number, as in the Earth's mantle. The model equation describes the evolution of the first moment of the temperature anomaly in the thermal boundary layer, which is assumed thin with respect to the scale of motion. This two-dimensional field is transported by the velocity that it induces and is amplified by surface divergence. This model explains the emergence of thermal plumes, which arise as finite-time singularities. We determine critical exponents for these singularities. Using a smoothing method we go beyond the singularity and reach a stage of developed convection. We describe a process of plume merging, leaving room for the birth of new instabilities. The heat flow at the surface predicted by our two-dimensional model is found to be in good agreement with available data.