Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T06:46:13.741Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Volatility Risk Premium Embedded in Currency Options

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Buen Sin Low
Affiliation:
[email protected], Division of Banking and Finance, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798.
Shaojun Zhang
Affiliation:
[email protected], Division of Banking and Finance, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798.

Abstract

This study employs a non-parametric approach to investigate the volatility risk premium in the over-the-counter currency option market. Using a large database of daily delta-neutral straddle quotes in four major currencies—the British pound, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc—we find that volatility risk is priced in all four currencies across different option maturities. We find that the volatility risk premium is negative, with the premium decreasing in maturity. Finally, we also find evidence that jump risk may be priced in the currency option market.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bakshi, G.; Cao, C.; and Chen, Z.. “Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 20032049.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakshi, G., and Kapadia, N.. “Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium.” Review of Financial Studies, 16 (2003), 527566.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bank for International Settlement. Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity 1995. Basel (1996).Google Scholar
Bank for International Settlement. BIS Quarterly Review-International Banking and Financial Market Developments. Basel (1997).Google Scholar
Bank for International Settlement. Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity 2001. Basel (2002).Google Scholar
Bank for International Settlement. BIS Quarterly Review-International Banking and Financial Market Developments. Basel (2003).Google Scholar
Bates, D.Post-'87 Crash Fears in S&P 500 Futures Options.” Journal of Econometrics, 94 (2000), 181238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T.; Chou, R. Y.; and Kroner, K. F.. “ARCH Modeling in Finance.” Journal of Econometrics, 52 (1992), 559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campa, J., and Chang, K. H.. “Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities.” Journal of Finance, 50 (1995), 529547.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campa, J., and Chang, K. H.. “The Forecasting Ability Of Correlations Implied In Foreign Exchange Options.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 17 (1998), 855880.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chesney, M., and Scott, L.. “Pricing European Currency Options: A Comparison of the Modified Black-Scholes Model and a Random Variance Model.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24 (1989), 267284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coval, J., and Shumway, T.. “Expected Option Returns.” Journal of Finance, 56 (2001), 9831009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Covrig, V., and Low, B. S.. “The Quality of Volatility Traded on the Over-the-Counter Currency Market: A Multiple Horizons Study.” Journal of Futures Markets, 23 (2003), 261285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, J.; Ingersoll, J.; and Ross, S.. “An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices.” Econometrica, 53 (1985), 363384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Santis, G., and Gerard, B.. “How Big Is The Premium For Currency Risk?Journal of Financial Economics, 49 (1998), 375412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duffie, D.; Pan, J.; and Singleton, K.. “Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions.” Econometrica, 68 (2000), 13431376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dumas, B., and Solnik, B.. “The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk.” Journal of Finance, 50 (1995), 445479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eraker, B.; Johannes, M. S.; and Polson, N. G.. “The Impact of Jumps in Returns and Volatility.” Working Paper, Univ. of Chicago, (2000).Google Scholar
Garman, B., and Kohlhagen, S.. “Foreign Currency Option Values.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 2 (1983), 231237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heston, S.A Closed Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options.” Review of Financial Studies, 6 (1993), 327343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heynen, R.; Kemna, A.; and Vorst, T.. “Analysis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 29 (1994), 3156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hull, J., and White, A.. “The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities.” Journal of Finance, 42 (1987), 281300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hull, J., and White, A.. “An Analysis of the Bias in Option Pricing Caused by Stochastic Volatility.” Advances in Futures and Options Research, 3 (1988), 2961.Google Scholar
Hull, J.Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 5th ed. New York: Prentice Hall (2003).Google Scholar
Jackwerth, J., and Rubinstein, M.. “Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices.” Journal of Finance, 51 (1996), 16111631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jorion, P.Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market.” Journal of Finance, 50 (1995), 507528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamoureux, G., and Lastrapes, W.. “Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities.” Review of Financial Studies, 6 (1993), 293326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Melino, A., and Turnbull, S.. “Pricing Foreign Currency Options with Stochastic Volatility.” Journal of Econometrics, 45 (1990), 239265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Melino, A., and Turnbull, S.. “Misspecification and the Pricing and Hedging of Long-Term Foreign Currency Options.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 14 (1995), 373393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neely, C.Forecasting Foreign Exchange Volatility: Is Implied Volatility the Best We Can Do?” Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2003).Google Scholar
Newey, W. K., and West, K. D.. “A Simple Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica, 55 (1987), 702708.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pan, J.The Jump-Risk Premia Implicit in Options: Evidence from an Integrated Time Series Study.” Journal of Financial Economics, 63 (2002), 350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sarwar, G.Is Volatility Risk for the British Pound Priced in the U.S. Options Markets?Financial Review, 36 (2001), 5570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, J.Overreactions in the Options Market.” Journal of Finance, 44 (1989), 10111024.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, S., and Xu, X.. “The Incremental Volatility Information in One Million Foreign Exchange Quotations.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 4 (1997), 317340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilmott, P.Derivatives. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons (1998).Google Scholar
Xu, X., and Taylor, S.. “The Term Structure of Volatility Implied by Foreign Exchange Options.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 29 (1994), 5774.CrossRefGoogle Scholar