Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T12:18:24.320Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Ian Domowitz
Affiliation:
Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
Jack Glen
Affiliation:
Economics Division, International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC 20433
Ananth Madhavan
Affiliation:
Department of Finance, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089.

Abstract

The magnitude and determinants of credit and currency risks are topics of considerable importance. This paper uses data on peso- and dollar-denominated debt issued by the Mexican government to identify currency and country risk premia. We show that shocks in equity and debt market returns translate into long-term increases in the premium demanded by investors with respect to currency and country factors. Country and currency premia help explain equity returns and closed-end fund discounts. Additional evidence is provided showing that investors did not anticipate the magnitude or timing of the currency devaluation of December 1994 and the subsequent financial crisis.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bailey, W.; Chan, K. C.; and Chung, P.. “Depository Receipts, Country Funds, and the Peso Crash: The Intraday Evidence.” Working Paper, Cornell Univ. (1997).Google Scholar
Bailey, W., and Chung, P.. “Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political Risk, and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30 (1995), 541562.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, W., and Jagtiani, J.. “Foreign Ownership Restrictions and Stock Prices in the Thai Capital Market.” Journal of Financial Economics, 36 (1994), 5787.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barr, D., and Campbell, J.. “Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices.” Working Paper, Harvard Institute of Economic Research (1995).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bekaert, G., and Harvey, C.. “Time Varying World Market Integration.” Journal of Finance, 50 (1995), 403444.Google Scholar
Bollerslev, T., and Wooldridge, J.. “Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Dynamic Models with Time Varying Covariances.” Econometric Reviews, 11 (1992), 143172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campa, J., and Chang, K.. “Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on the Term Structure of Volatilities in Foreign Exchange Options.” Journal of Finance, 50, (1995). 529547.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J., and Shiller, R.. “Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models.” Journal of Political Economy, 95 (1987), 10621088.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J., and Shiller, R.. “Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View.” Review of Economic Studies, 58 (1991), 495514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Claessens, S., and Pennacchi, G.. “Estimating the Likelihood of Mexican Default from the Market Prices of Brady Bonds.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 31 (1996), 109126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, J.; Ingersoll, J.; and Ross, S.. “A Reexamination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Finance, 36 (1981), 769799.Google Scholar
Cumby, R., and Evans, M.. “The Term Structure of Credit Risk: Estimates and Specifications.” London School of Economics Financial Markets Group Discussion Paper (1995).Google Scholar
De Santis, G., and Gerard, B.. “How Big is the Premium for Currency Risk?” Journal of Financial Economics (1997), forthcoming.Google Scholar
Domowitz, I.; Glen, J.; and Madhavan, A.. “Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 1059–1086.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferson, W. and Harvey, C.. “The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums.” Journal of Political Economy, 99 (1991), 385415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferson, W. and Harvey, C.. “The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns.” Review of Financial Studies, 6 (1993), 527566.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frankel, J., and Okongwu, C.. “Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence.” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1 (1996), 131.3.0.CO;2-K>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frankel, J., and Schmukler, S. L.. “Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of December 1994: Did Local Residents Turn Pessimistic before International Investors?” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 563, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1996).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harvey, C.The Risk Exposure of Emerging Markets.” World Bank Economic Review, 9 (1995), 1951.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Monetary Fund. “Evolution of the Mexican Peso Crisis.” Background Paper, International Capital Markets Division, Washington D.C. (1995).Google Scholar
Khor, H., and Rojas-Suarez, L.. “Interest Rates in Mexico.” IMF Staff Papers, 38 (1991), 850870.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korajczyk, R., and Viallet, C.. “Equity Risk Premia and the Pricing of Foreign Exchange Risk.” Journal of International Economics, 33 (1992), 199219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, K. “Puzzles in International Financial Markets.” In Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 3, Jones, R. W. and Kenen, P. B. eds. North-Holland (1995).Google Scholar
Lustig, N. “The Mexican Peso Crisis: The Foreseeable and the Surprise.” Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics, No. 114 (1995).Google Scholar
Melvin, M., and Schlagenhauf, D.. “A Country Risk Index: Econometric Formulation and an Application to Mexico.” Economic Inquiry, 23 (1985), 601619.Google Scholar
Stock, J. H.Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors.” Econometrica, 55 (1987), 10351056.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Umlauf, S.An Empirical Study of the Mexican Treasury Bill Auction.” Journal of Financial Economics, 33 (1993), 313340.CrossRefGoogle Scholar