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The U.S. Sugar Program and the Cuban Revolution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 September 2004

ALAN DYE  and
RICHARD SICOTTE
ALAN DYE
Affiliation:
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University, 3009 Broadway, New York, NY 10027. E-mail: [email protected]
RICHARD SICOTTE
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Vermont, Rm. 239 Old Mill, 94 University Place, Burlington, VT 05405-0114. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

This article argues that one contributing factor to the Cuban Revolution of 1959 was the 1956 revision of U.S. sugar quotas. Its significance has been overlooked because its real economic impact was programmed to occur after 1959. Combining a statistical simulation and an event study of sugar companies' rates of return on equity, we show that the revision had adverse long-run consequences for sugar exports, and that forward-looking investors anticipated them and incorporated them into their valuation of sugar-company stocks after 1953. Further evidence shows that the Batista regime and prominent insurgents understood the vital nature of Cuba's sugar import quota.

Type
ARTICLES
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 64 , Issue 3 , September 2004 , pp. 673 - 704
Copyright
© 2004 The Economic History Association

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References

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BB. Braga Brothers Collection, University of Florida at Gainesville. R.G. III.
USNA. National Archives of the United States, R.G. 16, Papers of the Secretary of Agriculture, General Correspondence; R.G. 59, Dept. of State Central Files.

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