Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-v2bm5 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-09T22:23:38.189Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 April 2019

Nuno Palma  and
Jaime Reis
Nuno Palma
Affiliation:
Nuno Palma is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Manchester and CEPR, The Arthur Lewis Building, Univ. of Manchester, Oxford Road Manchester M13 9PL. E-mail: [email protected].
Jaime Reis
Affiliation:
Jaime Reis is Professor, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Aníbal de Bettencourt, 9 1600-189 Lisboa, Portugal. E-mail: [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We construct the first time-series for Portugal’s per capita GDP for 1527–1850, drawing on a new database. Starting in the early 1630s there was a highly persistent upward trend which accelerated after 1710 and peaked 40 years later. At that point, per capita income was high by European standards, though behind the most advanced Western European economies. But as the second half of the eighteenth century unfolded, a phase of economic decline was initiated. This continued into the nineteenth century, and by 1850 per capita incomes were not different from what they had been in the early 1530s.

Type
Article
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 79 , Issue 2 , June 2019 , pp. 477 - 506
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We are grateful to Steve Broadberry, Leonor F. Costa, António C. Henriques, Kivanç Karaman, Wolfgang Keller, Cormac Ó Gráda, Şevket Pamuk, Leandro Prados de la Escosura, Joan R. Rosés, Jacob Weisdorf, Jeffrey Williamson, and many participants at the Nova SBE lunchtime seminar, the 2014 Accounting for the Great Divergence conference, The University of Warwick in Venice, the 2014 APHES conference in Lisbon, and the 2015 EHES conference in Pisa for discussion of this paper. We also thank colleagues on the Prices, Wages and Rents in Portugal 1300–1910 project. This paper partly relies on joint work with Leonor Costa and Conceição Andrade Martins, to whom we owe special thanks. We are also grateful to Bruno Lopes, Carlos Faísca, Fátima Farrica, Ricardo Pereira, and Paulo Paixão Silva for dedicated research assistance. Finally, we thank Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia for financial support.

References

REFERENCES

Allen, Robert C. “Economic Structure and Agricultural Productivity in Europe, 1300–1800.” European Review of Economic History 4, no. 1 (2000): 1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Robert C. “The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War.” Explorations in Economic History 38, no. 4 (2001): 411–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Robert C. “Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe.” Economic History Review 3, no. 3 (2003): 403–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Robert C. “Real Wages in Europe and Asia: A First Look at the Long-Term Patterns.” In Living Standards in the Past. New Perspectives on Well-Being in Asia and Europe, edited by Robert, C. Allen, Tommy, Bengtsson, and Martin, Dribe, 111–30. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Robert C. “Absolute Poverty: When Necessity Displaces Desire.” American Economic Review 107, no. 12 (2017): 3690–721.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos, and Leandro Prados, de la Escosura. “The Decline of Spain (1500–1850): Conjectural Estimates.” European Review of Economic History 11, no. 3 (2007): 319–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos, and Leandro Prados, de la Escosura. “The Rise and Fall of Spain (1270–1850).” Economic History Review 66, no. 1 (2013): 1–37.Google Scholar
Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos, Leandro Prados, de la Escosura, and Carlos, Santiago-Caballero. “Spanish Agriculture in the Little Divergence.” European Review of Economic History 20, no. 4 (2016): 452–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bairoch, Paul. “Europe’s Gross National Product: 1800–1975.” Journal of European Economic History 5, no. 2 (1976): 273–340.Google Scholar
Bairoch, Paul, Jean, Batou, and Paul, Chèvre. La Population des Villes Européennes de 800 à 1850: Banque de Données et Analyse Sommaire des Résultats. Geneva: Librairie Droz, 1988.Google Scholar
Brandão, João. Grandeza e Abastança de Lisboa em 1552. Lisboa: Livros Horizonte, 1990 [1552].Google Scholar
Broadberry, Stephen, Bruce, Campbell, Alexander, Klein, et al. British Economic Growth 1270–1870. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015a.Google Scholar
Broadberry, Stephen, Johann, Custodis, and Bishnupriya, Gupta.” India and the Great Divergence: An Anglo-Indian Comparison of GDP Per Capita, 1600–1871.” Explorations in Economic History 55, no. 1 (2015b): 58–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Gregory. A Farewell to Alms. A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Gregory. “The Macroeconomic Aggregates for England, 1209–2008.” In Research in Economic History, edited by Alexander, J. Field, vol. 27, 51–140. Bingley, UK: Emerald Publishing Group, 2010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coelho, Eusébio. Estatística do Districto de Vianna do Castello. Lisboa: Imprensa Nacional, 1861.Google Scholar
Colaço, Gregório. Informação para a Estatística Industrial dos Distritos de Leiria e Funchal. Lisboa: Imprensa Nacional, 1862.Google Scholar
Costa, Leonor F., Pedro, Lains, and Susana, Miranda. An Economic History of Portugal, 1143–2010. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Costa, Leonor F., Nuno, Palma, and Jaime, Reis. “The Great Escape? The Contribution of the Empire to Portugal’s Economic Growth, 1500–1800.” European Review of Economic History 19, no.1 (2015): 1–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Costa, Leonor F., and Jaime, Reis. “The Chronic Food Deficit of Early Modern Portugal: Curse or Myth?” Análise Social LII, no. 2 (2017): 416–29.Google Scholar
Costa, Leonor F., Manuela, Rocha, and Rita, de Sousa. O Ouro do Brasil. Lisboa: Imprensa Nacional-Casa da Moeda, 2013.Google Scholar
Deaton, Angus, and Alan, Heston. “Understanding PPPs and PPP-based National Accounts.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 4 (2010): 1–35.Google Scholar
Edvinsson, Rodney. “New Annual Estimates of Swedish GDP, 1800–2010.” Economic History Review 66, no. 4 (2013a): 1101–26.Google Scholar
Edvinsson, Rodney. “Swedish GDP 1620–1800: Stagnation or Growth?” Cliometrica 7, no. 1 (2013b): 37–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edvinsson, Rodney. “Testing the Demand Approach to Reconstruct Pre-Industrial Agricultural Output.” Scandinavian Economic History Review 64, no. 3 (2016): 202–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Federico, Giovanni, and Paolo, Malanima. “Progress, Decline, Growth: Product and Productivity in Italian Agriculture, 1000–2000.” Economic History Review 57, no. 3 (2004): 437–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandes, Rui. Descrição do Terreno ao Redor de Lamego Duas Léguas, 1531–1532. Amândio, Morais Barros (ed.). Casal de Cambra: Caleidoscópio, 2012.Google Scholar
Fonseca, Helder, and Jaime, Reis. “The Limits of Agricultural Growth in a Fragile Eco-System: Total Factor Productivity in Alentejo, 1750–1850.” In Growth and Stagnation in European Historical Agriculture, edited by Mats, Olsson and Patrick, Svensson, 37–66. Turnhout: Brepols, 2011.Google Scholar
Fonseca, Jorge. “Uma Vila Alentejana no Antigo Regime - Aspectos Sócioeconómicos de Montemor-o-Novo nos Séculos XVII e XVIII.” Almansor – Revista de Cultura 1, no. 4 (1986): 119–207.Google Scholar
Fouquet, Roger, and Stephen, Broadberry. “Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29, no. 4 (2015): 227–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Godinho, Vitorino M. Ensaios. Lisboa: Sá da Costa, 1968–1972.Google Scholar
Henriques, António C. “Plenty of Land, Land of Plenty: The Agrarian Output of Portugal (1311–20).” European Review of Economic History 19, no. 2 (2015): 149–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Humphries, Jane, and Jacob, L. Weisdorf. “Unreal Wages? Real Income and Economic Growth in England, 1260–1850.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 11999, London, UK, April 2017.Google Scholar
Jong, Herman, and Nuno, Palma. “Historical National Accounting.” In An Economist’s Guide to Economic History, edited by Matthias, Blum and Christopher, Colvin. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.Google Scholar
Lains, Pedro. Os Progressos do Atraso: Uma Nova História Económica de Portugal, 1842–1992. Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais, 2003.Google Scholar
Leite, Joaquim C. “População e Crescimento Económico.” In História Económica de Portugal, 1700-2000 .Volume 2, edited by Pedro, Lains and Ávaro, F. Silva, 44–81. Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais, 2005.Google Scholar
Lopes, José S. A Economia Portuguesa no Século XX. Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais, 2004.Google Scholar
Maddison, Angus. The World Economy, Volume 2: Historical Statistics. Paris: OECD, 2003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malanima, Paolo. “The Long Decline of a Leading Economy: GDP in Central and Northern Italy, 1300–1913.” European Review of Economic History 15, no. 2 (2011): 169–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malanima, Paolo. “When Did England Overtake Italy? Medieval and Early Modern Divergence in Prices and Wages.” European Review of Economic History 17, no. 1 (2013): 45–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marques, A. H. de Oliveira. “Estratificação Económico-Social de uma Vila Portuguesa na Idade Média.” In Ensaios de História Medieval Portuguesa, edited by de Oliveira Marques, A. H., 121–33. Lisboa: Veja, 1980.Google Scholar
Marques, A. H. de Oliveira, and João, J. A. Dias. Atlas Histórico de Portugal e do Ultramar Português. Lisboa: Centro de Estudos Históricos, 2003.Google Scholar
Martins, Conceição. Memória do Vinho do Porto. Lisboa: Instituto de Ciências Sociais, 1990.Google Scholar
Monteiro, Nuno. “A Ocupação da Terra.” In História Económica de Portugal, 1700–2000. Volume 1, edited by Pedro, Lains and Álvaro, F. Silva, 67–92. Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais, 2005.Google Scholar
Oliveira, Francisco. Informação para a Estatística Industrial Publicada pela Repartição de Pesos e Medidas do Distrito de Aveiro. Lisboa: Imprensa Nacional, 1867.Google Scholar
Oliveira, João. A Produção Agrícola de Viseu entre 1550 e 1700. Viseu: Câmara Municipal de Viseu, 1990.Google Scholar
Oliveira, João. A Beira Alta de 1700 a 1840. Gentes e Subsistências. Viseu: Palimage, 2002.Google Scholar
Palma, Nuno. “Sailing away from Malthus: Intercontinental Trade and European Economic Growth, 1500–1800.” Cliometrica 10, no. 2 (2016): 129–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Palma, Nuno. “Historical Account Books as a Source for Quantitative History.” In History and Economic Life: A Student’s Guide to Approaching Economic and Social History Sources, edited by Georg, Christ and Philipp, Roessner. Abingdon, UK: Routledge Guides to Using Historical Sources, Routledge, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Palma, Nuno, Jaime, Reis, and Mengtian, Zhang. “Reconstruction of Regional and National Population using Intermittent Census-Type Data: The Case of Portugal, 1527–1864.” Maddison-Project Working Paper No. 8, Groningen, Netherlands, November 2017.Google Scholar
Pfister, Ulrich. “Economic Growth in Germany, 1500–1850.” Unpublished manuscript presented at the “Quantifying Long Run Economic Development” conference, University of Warwick in Venice, May 2011.Google Scholar
Pfister, Ulrich, Jana, Riedel, and Martin, Uebele. “Real Wages and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth in Germany, 16th to 19th Centuries.” EHES Working Paper No. 17, European Historical Economics Society, London, UK, April 2012.Google Scholar
Rebello da Silva, Luís. Compêndio de Economia Rural. Lisboa: Imprensa Nacional, 1868.Google Scholar
Reis, Jaime. “How Poor Was the European Periphery before 1850? The Mediterranean vs. Scandinavia.” In The Mediterranean Response to Globalization before 1950, edited by Sevket, Pamuk and Jeffrey, G. Williamson, 17–44. London: Routledge, 2000.Google Scholar
Reis, Jaime. “O Trabalho.” In História Económica de Portugal, 1700–2000. Volume 2, edited by Pedro, Lains and Álvaro, F. Silva, 119–51. Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais, 2005.Google Scholar
Reis, Jaime. “Gross Agricultural Output: A Quantitative, Unified Perspective, 1500–1850.” In An Agrarian History of Portugal, 1000–2000. Economic Development on the European Frontier, edited by Dulce, Freire and Pedro, Lains, 166–96. Leiden: Brill, 2016.Google Scholar
Reis, Jaime. “Deviant Behaviour? Inequality in Portugal 1565–1770.” Cliometrica 11, no. 3 (2017): 297–319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ribeiro, Orlando. Portugal, o Mediterrâneo e o Atlântico: Esboço de Relações Geográficas. Lisboa: Sá da Costa, 1986.Google Scholar
Ridolfi, Leonardo. “The French Economy in the Longue Durée. A Study on Real Wages, Working Days and Economic Performance from Louis IX to the Revolution (1250–1789).” Ph.D. diss., IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, Lucca, Italy, 2016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodrigues, Ana M. “Torres Vedras. A Vila e o Termo nos Fins da Idade Média.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Lisbon, 1995.Google Scholar
Rodrigues, Teresa F. História da População Portuguesa: Das Longas Permanências à Conquista da Modernidade. Porto: Afrontamento, 2008.Google Scholar
Sá, Isabel. “O Trabalho.” In História Económica de Portugal, 1700–2000. Volume 1, edited by Pedro, Lains and Álvaro, F. Silva, 93–121. Lisboa: Imprensa de Ciências Sociais, 2005.Google Scholar
Santos, Rui. Sociogénese do Latifundismo Moderno: Mercados, Crises e Mudança Social na Região de Évora, Séculos XVII a XIX. Lisboa: Banco de Portugal, 2003.Google Scholar
Schön, Lennart, and Olle, Krantz. “The Swedish Economy in the Early Modern Period: Constructing Historical National Accounts.” European Review of Economic History 16, no. 4 (2012): 529–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Silva, Francisco. Informações para a Estatística Industrial do Distrito de Coimbra. Lisboa: Imprensa Nacional, 1861.Google Scholar
Thomas, Richard, and Deirdre, McCloskey. “Overseas Trade and Empire 1700–1800.” In The Economic History of Britain since 1700, edited by Roderick, Floud and Deirdre, McCloskey, vol. 1, 87–102. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Van, Zanden, Jan, Luiten. “Una Estimación del Crescimiento Economico en la Edad Moderna.” Investigaciones de Historia Economica 1, no. 2 (2005): 9–38.Google Scholar
Van, Zanden, Jan, Luiten. The Long Road to the Industrial Revolution: The European Economy in a Global Perspective, 1000–1800. Leiden: Brill, 2009.Google Scholar
Van, Zanden, Jan, Luiten, and Bas, van Leeuwen. “Persistent but Not Consistent: The Growth of National Income in Holland 1347–1807.” Explorations in Economic History 49, no. 2 (2012): 119–30.Google Scholar
Viterbo, Fr. Joaquim. Elucidário das Palavras, Termos e Frases que em Portugal Antigamente se Usaram e que Hoje Regularmente se Ignoram. Edição de Mário Fiúza. Porto: Civilização, 1983.Google Scholar
Wrigley, Edward A. “Urban Growth and Agricultural Change: England and the Continent in the Early Modern Period.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 15, no. 4 (1985): 683–728.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wrigley, Edward A., and Roger, S. Schofield. The Population History of England 1541–1871. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.Google Scholar
Wrigley, Edward A., Davies, R. S., Jim, E. Oeppen, et al. English Population History from Family Reconstitution 1580–1837. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Palma and Reis supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Palma and Reis supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 812.7 KB