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The Cost of World War II to the Soviet People: A Research Note

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2010

James R. Millar  and
Susan J. Linz
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Extract

Although the total real cost of World War II to the Soviet people has yet to be fully tallied, there can be little doubt that it exceeds that of any other major participant, per capita as well as absolutely. The objective of this paper is to compare and evaluate the real war costs reported by the Soviets with those implied by Soviet pronouncements and those using Soviet national income data. Our purpose is to determine the reasonableness of the Soviet claim that World War II cost the Soviet economy two Five-Year Plans.

Type
Articles
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 38 , Issue 4 , December 1978 , pp. 959 - 962
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1978

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References

1 This claim implies that full restoration of the 1940 level of industrial output took 8–9 years. Tamarchenko, M. L., Sovetskie finansy v period Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny (Moscow, 1967), p. 135.Google Scholar

2 Ibid., n. 3, pp. 130–31.

3 Ibid., pp. 132–36.

4 Lorimer, Frank, The Population of the Soviet Union: History and Prospects (Princeton, 1946), p. 183.Google Scholar

5 Ibid., p. 226.

6 Since agriculture comprised half of the labor force in 1940 (Bergson, Abram, The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928 [Cambridge, 1961], Table K-2, p. 443Google Scholar), the weighted average annual wage is determined by giving equal weight to the average annual wage in the agricultural sector (in 1940 wages), 286.3 rubles ( Bergson, Abram and Heymann, Hans Jr., Soviet National Income and Product, 1940–1948 [New York, 1954], p. 111Google Scholar), with that of the average annual wage of workers and salaried officials in the industrial sector, 405.4 rubles ( Malafeev, A. N., Istoriia tsenoobrazovaniia v SSSR [Moscow, 1964], Table 21, p. 407).Google Scholar

7 The war cost per employed person, 2551, divided by the weighted average annual wage in 1940, 346, approximately equals 7.4 years' earnings.

8 Percentage shares of Soviet national income for war years used here are obtained by combining official data provided in Tamarchenko, Sovetskie finansy, pp. 50–51; la. Chadaev, E., Ekonomika SSSR v period Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny (Moscow, 1965), p. 380Google Scholar; Kravchenko, G. S., Ekonomika SSSR v gody Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny (Moscow, 1970), p. 228.Google Scholar

9 Tamarchenko, Sovetskie finansy, p. 134.

10 It is evident from our calculations that consumption has a greater impact on total current war cost than either the capital-output ratio or the share of investment in national income during the four war years. That is, halving the capital-output ratio or doubling investment's share in national income during the war years is approximately equivalent to a 10 percent decline in the share of consumption in national income during the same period. One might explain the apparent insensitivity of total war cost to K/Y by its counterbalancing effect in determining both the 1940 capital stock and the loss of national income during the war attributable to the loss of capital stock.

11 It is important to note that the data used by Bergson are in terms of gross national product in 1937 prices. The 1941 capital stock is estimated at 505.3 billion rubles (in 1937 prices) in Richard Moorsteen and Raymond Powell, The Soviet Capital Stock, 1928–1962 (Homewood, Ill., 1966), p. 339. The loss of capital stock is estimated at 30 percent or 168.4 billion rubles. Using a capital-output ratio of 2 (ibid., p. 367), the loss of GNP due to the loss of capital stock is found to be 336.8 million rubles. The value of GNP for the four war years may be calculated at 663.2 billion rubles using the 1940 GNP, 331.8 billion rubles, found in Abram Bergson, The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928 (Cambridge, 1961), p. 48..Wartime consumption may be estimated at 272 billion rubles using .41 as the average of consumption in GNP from 1940 to 1944 (ibid., p. 237). Investment during the war is estimated at 106 billion rubles by using the wartime investment average, 0.16 percent (ibid., p. 237). Hence direct war outlays, Ww, are found to be 285 billion rubles. Total war cost, Tw, may be calculated as 790 billion rubles. To find the total war cost per employed person we divide by a 1937 weighted average annual wage, 244 (ibid., p. 422), to get 3.2 years' earnings.

12 See D'iachenko, V. P., “Finansy v sisteme voennoi ekonomiki,” in I. A. Gladkov et al. Sovietskaia ekonomika v period Velikoi Otechestvennoi voiny (1941–1945 gg) (Moscow, 1970), esp. pp. 419, 432–33.Google Scholar

13 Soviet official sources report a loss of at least 20 million population during the war. See G. S. Kravchenko, Ekonomika SSSR, p. 369. The Soviets, however, strongly reject the idea of placing a ruble value on the lost population. See Tamarchenko, Sovetskie finansy, n. 1, pp. 128–29.