Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T10:02:35.177Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

What Ended the Great Depression?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

Christina D. Romer
Affiliation:
Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720.

Abstract

This paper examines the role of aggregate-demand stimulus in ending the Great Depression. Plausible estimates of the effects of fiscal and monetary changes indicate that nearly all the observed recovery of the U.S. economy prior to 1942 was due to monetary expansion. A huge gold inflow in the mid- and late 1930s swelled the money stock and stimulated the economy by lowering real interest rates and encouraging investment spending and purchases of durable goods. That monetary developments were crucial to the recovery implies that self-correction played little role in the growth of real output between 1933 and 1942.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1992

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Ayres, Leonard P., Turning Points in Business Cycles (New York, 1939).Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S., “Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression,” American Economic Review, 73 (06 1983), pp. 257–76.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S., and Parkinson, Martin S., “Unemployment, Inflation, and Wages in the American Depression: Are There Lessons for Europe?American Economic Review, 79 (05 1989), pp. 210–14.Google Scholar
Bernstein, Michael A., The Great Depression (New York, 1987).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blinder, Alan S., and Solow, Robert M., “Analytical Foundations of Fiscal Policy,” in The Economics of Public Finance, Brookings Institution Studies in Government Finance (Washington, DC, 1974), pp. 3115.Google Scholar
Bloomfield, Arthur I., Capital Imports and the American Balance of Payments, 1934–39 (Chicago, 1950).Google Scholar
Brown, E. Cary, “Fiscal Policy in the 'Thirties: A Reappraisal,” American Economic Review, 46 (12 1956), pp. 857–79.Google Scholar
Chandler, Lester V., America's Greatest Depression, 1929–1941 (New York, 1970).Google Scholar
Darby, Michael, “Three-and-a-Half Million U.S. Employees Have Been Mislaid: Or, an Explanation of Unemployment 1934–1941,” Journal of Political Economy, 84 (02 1976), pp. 116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Long, J. Bradford, and Summers, Lawrence H., “How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1988:2), pp. 433–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Sachs, Jeffrey, “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s,” this Journal, 45 (12 1985), pp. 925–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Milton, and Schwartz, Anna J., A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, 1963).Google Scholar
Gordon, Robert Aaron, Economic Instability and Growth: The American Record (New York, 1974).Google Scholar
Hansen, Alvin, Full Recovery or Stagnation? (New York, 1938).Google Scholar
Johnson, G. Griffith, The Treasury and Monetary Policy, 1933–1938 (Cambridge, MA, 1939).Google Scholar
Kendrick, John W., Productivity Trends in the United States (Princeton, 1961).Google Scholar
Lebergott, Stanley, Manpower in Economic Growth: The Record Since 1800 (New York, 1964).Google Scholar
Lewis, W. Arthur, Economic Survey, 1919–1939 (London, 1949).Google Scholar
Lipsey, Robert E., and Preston, Doris, Source Book of Statistics Related to Construction (New York, 1966).Google Scholar
Margo, Robert, “Interwar Unemployment in the United States: Evidence from the 1940 Census Sample,” in Eichengreen, Barry and Hatton, T. J., eds., Interwar Unemployment in International Perspective (Dordrecht, 1988), pp. 325–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCallum, Bennett T., “Could A Monetary Base Rule Have Prevented the Great Depression?Journal of Monetary Economics, 26 (08 1990), pp. 326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mishkin, Frederic, “The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation,” in Brunner, Karl and Meltzer, Alan, eds., The Costs and Consequences of Inflation, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 15 (Amsterdam, 1981), pp. 151200.Google Scholar
O'Brien, Anthony Patrick, “A Behavioral Explanation for Nominal Wage Rigidity During the Great Depression,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104 (11 1989), pp. 719–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, Christina D., “World War I and the Postwar Depression: A Reinterpretation Based on Alternative Estimates of GNP,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22 (07 1988), pp. 91115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, Christina D., and Romer, David H., “Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4 (1989), pp. 121–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roose, Kenneth D., The Economics of Recession and Revival (New Haven, 1954).Google Scholar
Smithies, Arthur, “The American Economy in the Thirties,” American Economic Review, 36 (05 1946), pp. 1127.Google Scholar
Temin, Peter, Lessons from the Great Depression (Cambridge, MA, 1989).Google Scholar
Temin, Peter, and Wigmore, Barrie, “The End of One Big Deflation,” Explorations in Economic History, 27 (10 1990), pp. 483502.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking and Monetary Statistics (Washington, DC, 1943 and 1976).Google Scholar
U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Industrial Production (Washington, DC, 1986).Google Scholar
U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Structure and Uses of the MPS Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States,” Federal Reserve Bulletin, 73 (02 1987), pp. 93109.Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, The National Income and Product Accounts, 1929–1982 (Washington, DC, 1986).Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Historical Data on the Producer Price Index (Microfiche, Washington, DC, 1986).Google Scholar
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Statistical Appendix to the Annual Report of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the Finances (Washington, DC, 1979).Google Scholar
Weinstein, Michael, “Some Macroeconomic Impacts of the National Industrial Recovery Act, 1933–1935,” in Brunner, Karl, ed., The Great Depression Revisited (Boston, 1981), pp. 262–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wigmore, Barrie A., “Was the Bank Holiday of 1933 Caused by a Run on the Dollar?” this Journal, 47 (09 1987), pp. 739–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar