Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T11:33:07.735Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Collateral Damage: The Impact of Foreclosures on New Home Mortgage Lending in the 1930s

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 July 2020

Price Fishback
Affiliation:
Professor, University of Arizona and NBER, McClelland Hall 401GG, 1130 East Helen Street, P.O. Box 210108, Tucson, AZ85721-0108. E-mail: [email protected].
Sebastian Fleitas
Affiliation:
Assistant Professor, University of Leuven and CEPR, Department of Economics, University of Leuven, Naamsestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium. E-mail: [email protected].
Jonathan Rose
Affiliation:
Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 230 S Lasalle St., Chicago, IL60604. E-mail: [email protected].
Ken Snowden
Affiliation:
Professor, University of North Carolina–Greensboro and NBER, Department of Economics, UNC at Greensboro, Greensboro, NC27412-5001. E-mail: [email protected].

Abstract

The Great Depression of the 1930s involved a severe disruption in the supply of home mortgage credit. This paper empirically identifies a mechanism lying behind this credit crunch: the impairment of lenders’ balance sheets by illiquid foreclosed real estate. With data on hundreds of building and loans (B&Ls), the leading mortgage lenders in this period, we find that the overhang of foreclosed real estate explains about 30 percent of the drop in new lending between 1930 and 1935.

Type
Article
Copyright
© The Economic History Association 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We thank the editor, Bill Collins, and two anonymous referees for their comments. We also thank seminar participants at the Instituto de Economía–Universidad de la República, NBER Development of the American Economy, World Economic History Congress, Economic History Association, and Southern Economic Association. Fishback and Snowden acknowledge the financial support provided by National Science Foundation Grant SES-1061927. The views presented in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve System or its staff, the NBER, or the CEPR.

References

REFERENCES

Abramovitz, Moses. “Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction since the Civil War.” NBER Occasional Paper 90, New York, 1964.Google Scholar
Adelino, Manuel, Gerardi, Kritopher, and Willen, Paul S.. “Identifying the Effect of Securitization on Foreclosure and Modification Rates Using Early-Payment Defaults.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 49, no. 3 (2014): 352–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altonji, Joseph G., Elder, Todd E., and Taber, Christopher R.. “Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools.Journal of Political Economy 113, no. 1 (2015): 151–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anenberg, Eliot, and Kung, Edward. “Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures.American Economic Review 104, no. 8 (2014): 2527–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, Ben. “Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression.American Economic Review 73, no. 3 (1983): 257–76.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben, Gertler, Mark, and Gilchrist, Simon. “The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality.” Review of Economics and Statistics 78, no. 1 (1996): 115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bodfish, H. Morton. History of Building and Loan in the United States. Chicago: United States Building and Loan League, 1931.Google Scholar
Bolch, Ben, Fels, Rendigs, and McMahon, Marshall. “Housing Surplus in the 1920’s?Explorations in Economic History 8, no. 3 (1971): 259–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calomiris, Charles W., and Mason, Joseph R.. “Contagion and Bank Failures during the Great Depression: The June 1932 Chicago Banking Panic.” American Economic Review 87, no. 5 (1997): 863–83.Google Scholar
Calomiris, Charles W., and Mason, Joseph R.. “Consequences of Bank Distress during the Great Depression.” American Economic Review 93, no. 3 (2003): 937–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calomiris, Charles W., Mason, Joseph R., Weidenmier, Marc, and Bobroff, Katherine. “The Effects of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance on Michigan’s Banks’ Survival in the 1930s.” Explorations in Economic History 50, no. 4 (2013): 526–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, Mark, and Mitchener, Kris James. “Branch Banking as a Device for Discipline: Competition and Bank Survivorship during the Great Depression.Journal of Political Economy 117, no. 2 (2009): 165210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, Mark, Mitchener, Kris James, and Richardson, Gary. “Arresting Banking Panics: Federal Reserve Liquidity Provision and the Forgotten Panic of 1929.” Journal of Political Economy 119, no. 5 (2011): 889924.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, Susan, Gartner, Scott Sigmund, Haines, Michael, Olmstead, Alan, Sutch, Richard, and Wright, Gavin. Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the Present, Millennial Edition. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.Google Scholar
Cordell, Larry, Geng, Liang, Goodman, Laurie S., and Yang, Lidan. “The Cost of Foreclosure Delay.” Real Estate Economics 43, no. 4 (2015): 916–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cortes, Gustavo, and Weidenmier, Marc. “Stock Volatility and the Great Depression.Review of Financial Studies 32, no. 9 (2019): 3544–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Courtemanche, Charles, and Snowden, Kenneth. “Repairing a Mortgage Crisis: HOLC Lending and Its Impact on Local Housing Markets.Journal of Economic History 71, no. 2 (2011): 307–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eggertsson, Gauti B.Great Expectations and the End of the Depression.American Economic Review 98, no. 4 (2008): 1476–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ewalt, Josephine H.A Business Reborn. Chicago: American Savings and Loan Institute Press, 1962.Google Scholar
Federal Home Loan Bank Board. “What Can Be Done with Frozen Assets?Federal Home Loan Bank Review 1, no. 2 (1934): 710.Google Scholar
Federal Home Loan Bank Board. “Foreclosures and New Residential Construction in Large Urban Counties.” Federal Home Loan Bank Review 2, no. 7 (1936): 229–32.Google Scholar
Federal Home Loan Bank Board. “The Problem of Real Estate Owned by Institutions.” Federal Home Loan Bank Review 4, no. 9 (1938): 308–10.Google Scholar
Field, Alexander. “Uncontrolled Land Development and the Duration of the Depression in the United States.Journal of Economic History 52, no. 4 (1992): 785805.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Field, Alexander. “The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001–2012: A Comparative Historical Perspective.” In Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, edited by White, Eugene N., Snowden, Kenneth, and Fishback, Price, 3980. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price. “How Successful Was the New Deal? The Microeconomic Impact of New Deal Spending and Lending Policies.Journal of Economic Literature 55, no. 4 (2017): 1435–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price, Fleitas, Sebastian, Rose, Jonathan, and Snowden, Ken. “Replication: Collateral Damage: The Impact of Foreclosures on New Home Mortgage Lending in the 1930s.” Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2020-06-04. https://doi.org/10.3886/E119723V1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price V., Horrace, William C., and Kantor, Shawn. “Did New Deal Grant Programs Stimulate Local Economies? A Study of Federal Grants and Retail Sales during the Great Depression.Journal of Economic History 65, no. 1 (2005): 3671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price V., and Kachanovskaya, Valentina. “The Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States during the Great Depression.” Journal of Economic History 75, no. 1 (2015): 125–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price, Kantor, Shawn, Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso, Horrace, William, and Treber, Jaret. “The Influence of the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation on Housing Markets during the 1930s.” Review of Financial Studies 24, no. 6 (2011): 1782–813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price, and Kollmann, Trevor. “New Multicity Estimates of the Changes in Home Values, 1920–1940.” In Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, edited by White, Eugene N., Snowden, Kenneth, and Fishback, Price, 203–44. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishback, Price, Rose, Jonathan, and Snowden, Kenneth. Well Worth Saving. University of Chicago and NBER, 2013.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fleitas, Sebastian, Fishback, Price, and Snowden, Kenneth. “Economic Crisis and the Demise of a Popular Contractual Form: Building & Loans in the 1930s.Journal of Financial Intermediation 36 (2018): 2844.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frame, Scott, Hancock, Diana, and Passmore, Wayne. “Federal Home Loan Bank Advances and Commercial Bank Portfolio Composition.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 44 (2012): 661–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ghent, Andra C., and Kudlyak, Marianna. “Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from U.S. States.” Review of Financial Studies 24, no. 9 (2011): 149–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gjerstad, Steven, and Smith, Vernon. “Consumption and Investment Booms in the 1920s and Their Collapse in the 1930s.” In Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, edited by White, Eugene N., Snowden, Kenneth, and Fishback, Price, 81114. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014a.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gjerstad, Steven, and Smith, Vernon. Rethinking Housing Bubbles: The Role of Household and Bank Balance Sheets in Modelling Economic Cycles. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014b.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodstein, Ryan, Hanouna, Paul, Ramirez, Carlos D., and Stahel, Christof W.. “Contagion Effects in Strategic Mortgage Defaults.Journal of Financial Intermediation 30 (2017): 5060.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grebler, Leo, Blank, D., and Winnick, L.. Capital Formation in Residential Real Estate. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1956.Google Scholar
Guiso, Luigi , Sapienza, Paola, and Zingales, Luigi. “The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages.” Journal of Finance 68, no. 4 (2013): 1473–515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Alvin H.Business Cycles and National Income. New York: W.W. Norton, 1964.Google Scholar
Harriss, C. Lowell. History and Policies of the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1951.Google Scholar
Hausman, Joshua, Rhode, Paul, and Wieland, Johannes. “Recovery from the Great Depression: The Farm Channel in Spring 1933.” American Economic Review 109, no. 2 (2019): 427–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hickman, Bert G.What Became of the Building Cycle?” In Nations and Households in Economic Growth: Essays in Honor of Moses Abramovitz, edited by David, P. and Reder, M., 291314. New York: Academic Press, 1973.Google Scholar
Jalil, Andrew, and Rua, Gisela. “Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression: Evidence from the Narrative Record.Explorations in Economic History 62 (2016): 2650.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, and Moore, John. “Credit Cycles.Journal of Political Economy 105, no. 2 (1997): 211–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kruger, Samuel. “The Effect of Mortgage Securitization on Foreclosure and Modification.Journal of Financial Economics 129 (2018): 586607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mishkin, Frederic. “The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression.Journal of Economic History 38, no. 4 (1978): 918–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchener, Kris James.Bank Supervision, Regulation, and Instability during the Great Depression.Journal of Economic History 65, no. 1 (2005): 152–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oster, Emily. “Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence.Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 37, no. 2 (2019): 187204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pence, Karen. “Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit.Review of Economics and Statistics 88, no. 1 (2006): 177–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piskorski, Tomasz, Seru, Amit, and Vig, Vikrant. “Securitization and Distressed Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124, no. 4 (2010): 1449–96.Google Scholar
Postel-Vinay, Natacha. “What Caused Chicago Bank Failures in the Great Depression? A Look at the 1920s.Journal of Economic History 76, no. 2 (2016): 478519.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, Gary, and Troost, William. “Monetary Intervention Mitigated Banking Panics during the Great Depression: Quasi Experimental Evidence from a Federal Reserve District Border, 1929–1933.Journal of Political Economy 117, no. 6 (2009): 1031–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Jonathan D.The Incredible HOLC? Mortgage Relief during the Great Depression.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43 (2011): 1073–107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Jonathan D.The Prolonged Resolution of Troubled Real Estate Lenders.” In Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, edited by White, Eugene N., Snowden, Kenneth, and Fishback, Price, 245–86. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Jonathan D., and Snowden, Kenneth. “The New Deal and the Origins of the Modern American Real Estate Loan Contract.” Explorations in Economic History 50, no. 4 (2013): 548–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skilton, Robert H.Mortgage Moratoria since 1933.University of Pennsylvania Law Review and American Law Register 92, no. 1 (1943): 5390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snowden, Kenneth. “Building and Loan Associations in the U.S.: The Origins of Localization in the Residential Mortgage Market.Research in Economics 51, no. 3 (1997): 227–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snowden, Kenneth. “The Transition from Building and Loan to Savings and Loan.” In Finance, Intermediaries and Economic Development, edited by Engerman, Stanley L., Hoffman, Philip T., Rosenthal, Jean-Laurent, and Sokoloff, Kenneth L., 157206. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snowden, Kenneth. “The Anatomy of a Residential Mortgage Crisis: A Look Back to the 1930s.” In The Panic of 2008: Causes, Consequences and Proposals for Reform, edited by Mitchell, Lawrence E. and Wilmarth, Arthur E., 5175. Northhampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snowden, Kenneth. “A Historiography of Early NBER Housing and Mortgage Research.” In Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, edited by White, Eugene N., Snowden, Kenneth, and Fishback, Price, 1538. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, Jason E., and Neumann, Todd C.. “Recovery Spring, Faltering Fall: March to November 1933.” Explorations in Economic History 61 (2016): 5467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Towe, Charles, and Lawley, Chad. “The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures.American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 5, no. 2 (2013): 313–15.Google Scholar
Vossmeyer, Angela. “Sample Selection and Treatment Effect Estimation of Lender of Last Resort Policies.Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 34, no. 2 (2016): 197212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, Eugene. “A Reinterpretation of the Banking Crisis of 1930.Journal of Economic History 44, no. 1 (1984): 119–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, Eugene. “Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1930s.” In Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, edited by White, Eugene N., Snowden, Kenneth, and Fishback, Price, 115–60. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar