Name order follows the East Asian convention of surname first, then personal name, except for persons who adopt Western name order in publications, or whose names have become well established in the Western-language literature with personal name first.Google Scholar

1. New York Times , December 4, 2003.Google Scholar

2. It is often said that the United States has only acknowledged China's claim to Taiwan, and has studiously refused to accept it. This is incorrect. President Harry Truman and Secretary of State Dean Acheson explicitly affirmed China's sovereignty over Taiwan in January 1950, three months after the establishment of the PRC. From the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950 until 1972, the United States asserted that the status of Taiwan was “undetermined” to hold open the possibility that Taiwan could be kept out of the hands of the PRC or used against it. Then in 1972, as recently declassified documents confirm, President Richard Nixon explicitly accepted China's sovereignty over Taiwan as a precondition for negotiations on normalization of diplomatic relations. “Principle One: There Is One China, and Taiwan Is Part of China,” in Bush, Richard C., At Cross Purposes: U.S.-Taiwan Relations Since 1942 (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 2004), p. 85; Mann, James, About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton, updated ed. (New York: Random House/Vintage, 2000), pp. 46, 379. Numerous twists and turns of history and subtleties of drafting and translation notwithstanding, the basic stance of the United States has not changed since then. Bush, Cross Purposes, pp. 231–232; Yazhong, Zhang, Liang'an Zhuquan Lun [Issue of Sovereignty Between Mainland China and Taiwan], edited by Li, Y. and Zhang, Y. (Taipei: Shengzhi, 1998).Google Scholar A related claim is that the U.S. government does not oppose movement toward an independent Taiwan but merely refrains from supporting it. Statements by the Bush administration surrounding the failed referendum that accompanied the 2004 presidential election demonstrated, however, that, barring a momentous change of policy, the United States would lean against any serious efforts at irreversible alienation of Taiwan from the mainland, just as it opposes any attempt by the PRC to extend control over Taiwan by force or intimidation. During the visit of Chinese premier Wen Jiabao to Washington in December 2003, President Bush declared, “We oppose any unilateral decision by either China or Taiwan to change the status quo.” Financial Times, December 11, 2003. Domestic political considerations made the Bush administration reluctant to admit outright that it opposed Taiwanese independence, but it made its opposition clear, nonetheless. Washington Post , April 22, 2004.Google Scholar

3. Chang, Peggy Pei-chen and Cheng, Tun-jen, “The Rise of the Information Technology Industry in China: A Formidable Challenge to Taiwan's Economy,” American Asian Review 20, no. 3 (2002): 124–174.Google Scholar

4. Madsen, Robert A., “The Struggle for Sovereignty Between China and Taiwan,” in Krasner, S. D., ed., Problematic Sovereignty: Contested Rules and Political Possibilities (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001), pp. 182–183.Google Scholar

5. Lincoln, Edward J., East Asian Economic Regionalism (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2004), pp. 157, 246.Google Scholar

6. Taipei, , Central News Agency, January 10, 2003; see also Taiwan News, June 7, 2003.Google Scholar

7. Zhongguo Shibao , July 6, 2004.Google Scholar

8. Keiojukusei Shinbun [Keio Student Newspaper], December 2002, available at http://www.jukushin.com/article/200212_17.html (accessed July 30, 2004) Google Scholar

9. Kankei, Taigai Foosu, Tasuku, “21 Seiki nihon gaikou no kihon senryaku: Arata na jidai, arata na bijion, arata na gaikou” [A Basic Strategy for Japanese Diplomacy in the Twenty-First Century: A New Age, a New Vision, a New Diplomacy], report issued to Prime Minister Koizumi by the External Affairs Task Force, November 28, 2002, p. 21.Google Scholar

10. Taipei Times , February 18, 2004.Google Scholar

11. Nihon Keizai Shinbun , March 14, 2004; MOFA press release, “Kawaguchi gaimu daijin houchuu (nitchuu gaishou kaidan)” [Foreign Minister Kawaguchi Visits China (Talks Between the Japanese and Chinese Foreign Ministers)], April 3, 2004.Google Scholar

12. Christensen, Thomas J., “China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia,” International Security 23, no. 4 (1999): 49–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

13. Zha, Daojiong, “The Taiwan Problem in Japan-China Relations: An Irritant or Destroyer?” East Asia: An International Quarterly 19, nos. 1–2 (2001): 205–224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

14. Yoshihide, Soeya, “Taiwan in Japan's Security Considerations,” China Quarterly 165 (2001): 144, 146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

15. Wang, Qingxin Ken, “Taiwan in Japan's Relations with China and the United States After the Cold War,” Pacific Affairs 73, no. 3 (2000): 353.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16. Medeiros, Evan S. and Taylor Fravel, M., “China's New Diplomacy,” Foreign Affairs 82, no. 6 (2003): 22–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

17. Amae, Yoshihisa, “Japan's Taiwan Policy: Beyond the 1972 System?” in Alagappa, M., ed., Taiwan's Presidential Politics (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 2001), p. 277.Google Scholar

18. Green, Michael J., “Managing Chinese Power: The View from Japan,” in Johnston, Alastair Iain and Ross, Robert S., eds., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (London: Routledge, 1999), pp. 152–175; Green, Michael J., Japan's Reluctant Realism: Foreign Policy Challenges in an Era of Uncertain Power (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001).Google Scholar

19. Joint Communiqué of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China , September 29, 1972.Google Scholar

20. Er, Lam Peng, “The Apology Issue: Japan's Differing Approaches Toward China and South Korea,” American Asian Review 20, no. 3 (2002): 31–54.Google Scholar

21. Japan-China Joint Declaration on Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peace and Development , November 28, 1998.Google Scholar

22. Observe, for example, the following interchange during an April 20, 2001, press conference regarding the debates over issuing a visa to former president Lee Teng-hui: Q: Well, in relation to this visa issue, I understand that Japan has said in the Communiqué that it recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China. How does that relate to this visa issue? A: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Deputy Press Secretary Harada Chikahito: As you correctly referred to it, based on the 1972 Joint Communiqué between the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China, Japan maintains exchanges with Taiwan of a private and regional nature as nongovernmental working relations. Available at http://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/press/2001/4/420.html#1 (accessed September 30, 2004).Google Scholar

23. On Reagan, see Mann, , About Face , p. 127.Google Scholar

24. See, for example, the sources in Amae, , “Japan's Taiwan Policy,” n. 33.Google Scholar

25. Amae, , “Japan's Taiwan Policy,” n. 11.Google Scholar

26. Hara, Kimie, “50 Years from San Francisco: Re-examining the Peace Treaty and Japan's Territorial Problems,” Pacific Affairs 74, no. 3 (2001): 361–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

27. Bush, , Cross Purposes , pp. 93, 107.Google Scholar

28. This tight screening continued until the corporatization of the Japanese national universities in 2004, as I discovered from personal experience in 2003 and 2004.Google Scholar

29. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, Kankou Hakusho [White Paper on Tourism], various years; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, Ryuugakusei ukeire no gaikyou [Overview of Foreign Student Admissions], various years; Kokusai Kyouryoku Kikin [Japan Foundation], “Kaigai no nihongo kyouiku no genjyou: Nihongo kyouiku kikan chousa” [The Current Situation of Japanese Language Teaching Abroad: Survey of Japanese Language Educational Institutions], 1998, 2003.Google Scholar

30. On the defense cooperation guidelines, see http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/1997/b09231997_bt50797b.html (accessed August 1, 2004).Google Scholar

31. Internal government documents, 2003, supplemented by press accounts and interviews.Google Scholar

32. Bush, , Cross Purposes , pp. 222–227.Google Scholar

33. Sankei , August 27, 2002; Mainichi, September 16, 2002; “Mizuno Ken'ichi no shuchou ‘Taiwan houmon’ to no houdou ni tsuite” [on reports about Mizuno Ken'ichi's proposal to visit Taiwan], statement released August 12, 2002, available at http://www.catv296.ne.jp/~mizunokenichi/syutyoutaiwanhoumon.html (accessed August 10, 2004).Google Scholar

34. Zhongguo Shibao , Central News Agency, January 22, 2003.Google Scholar

35. Ziyou Shibao , July 22, 2002; Sankei, July 27, 2001.Google Scholar

36. Jialin, Qi, Taiwanshi [A History of Taiwan], 5 vols. (Taipei: Qi Jialin, 1998); Jialin, Qi, Taiwan Xin Shiguan [New Historical Perspectives on Taiwan] (Taipei: Qi Jialin, 1999); Rubinstein, Murray A., ed., Taiwan: A New History (Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe, 1999).Google Scholar

37. Eiji, Oguma, “Nihonjin” no Kyoukai: Okinawa, Ainu, Taiwan, Chousen—Shokuminchi Shihai kara Fukki Undou Made [The Boundaries of the Japanese: Okinawa, Ainu, Taiwan, Korea from Colonial Rule to the Reversion Movement] (Tokyo: Shin'yousha, 1998); Eiji, Oguma, The Genealogy of “Japanese” Self-Images, translated by Askew, D. (Melbourne: Trans Pacific Press, 2002), originally published as Tan'itsu minzoku shinwa no kigen “Nihonjin” no jigazou no keifu [The Origin of the Myth of Ethnic Homogeneity: The Genealogy of “Japanese” Self-Images] (Tokyo: Shin'yousha); Takeshi, Komagome, Shokuminchi Teikoku Nippon no Bunka Tougou [Cultural Integration in the Colonies of Imperial Japan] (Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten, 1996).Google Scholar

38. Chow, Kai-wing, Doak, Kevin M., and Fu, Poshek, eds., Constructing Nationhood in Modern East Asia (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2001).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

39. Phillips, Steven E., Between Assimilation and Independence: The Taiwanese Encounter Nationalist China, 1945–1950 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

40. Author's observation, March 2003.Google Scholar

41. Nihon Keizai Shinbun , July 6, 2004; Ziyou Shibao, July 7, 2004.Google Scholar

42. Author interviews, March–April 2004; on Xu's predecessor's weak understanding of contemporary Taiwan, see Caixun , February 2004.Google Scholar

43. Masahiro, Miyazaki, “Chuugoku-ka suru Taiwan, ‘Shinnichiha’ no Koutai to aidentiti no Chuuka-ka” [The China-ization of Taiwan: The Withdrawal of the “Pro-Japan Faction” and the Sinicization of Identity], Seiron (March 2003): 272–280.Google Scholar

44. Taiwan no Koe 3407, October 29, 2003.Google Scholar

45. See http://www.interq.or.jp/tokyo/nakatsu/report-2004.html (accessed August 10, 2004).Google Scholar

46. Author interview, senior official in the Executive Yuan, April 2004.Google Scholar

47. Among other sources, see their Japanese-language websites.Google Scholar

48. The DPJ Manifesto: Creating a Dynamic Japan, Towards a Secure Society , October 2003.Google Scholar

49. Jiyuuminshutou, , Sara ni Susumeru Koizumi Kaikaku [Further Advancing the Koizumi Reforms], June 2004.Google Scholar

50. Indeed, a kokueki.com has appeared, complete with a video denouncing the Tokyo war crimes tribunal, denial of the Nanjing massacre and other war crimes, vociferous support for Taiwanese independence, and a quixotic call to boycott Chinese goods (http://www.kokueki.com [accessed August 12, 2004]).Google Scholar

51. See, for example, Ziyou Shibao , July 22, 2002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

52. Author interview with a Taiwan official involved in foreign affairs, March 2004; Nikkei , September 9, 2004.Google Scholar

53. Author interview, September 29, 2003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

54. Asahi Shinbun , November 14, 2003.Google Scholar

55. Author interviews, Tokyo and Taipei, March–April 2004.Google Scholar

56. Some authorities stress the military superiority of the United States and the difficulties of invading Taiwan. O'Hanlon, Michael, “Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan,” International Security 25, no. 2 (2000): 51–86; Ross, Robert S., “Navigating the Taiwan Strait: Deterrence, Escalation Dominance, and U.S.-China Relations,” International Security 27, no. 2 (2002): 48–85. Others contend that long before China catches up with the United States in any overall index of military strength, improvements in China's military capabilities will pose grave threats to Taiwan and to any U.S. forces around the Taiwan Strait. Shambaugh, David, “A Matter of Time: Taiwan's Eroding Military Advantage,” Washington Quarterly 23, no. 2 (2000): 119–133; Christensen, Thomas J., “Posing Problems Without Catching Up: China's Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy,” International Security 25, no. 4 (2001): 5–40. The accelerating reform of China's military industrial complex suggests that the latter evaluation may be increasingly appropriate. Medeiros, Evan S., “Analyzing China's Defense Industries and the Implications for Chinese Military Modernization,” CT-217, testimony presented to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Washington, D.C., February 6, 2004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

57. Lee, Wei-Chin, “The Buck Starts Here: Cross-Strait Economic Transactions and Taiwan's Domestic Politics,” American Asian Review 21, no. 3 (Fall 2003): 107–152.Google Scholar

58. Author interview with senior official in the Executive Yuan, April 2004; Bush, , Cross Purposes , p. 217.Google Scholar

59. Seikei Jaanaru , June 2004.Google Scholar

60. Valencia, Mark J., The Regime of the Exclusive Economic Zone: Issues and Responses , report of the Tokyo meeting, February 19–20, 2003 (Honolulu: East-West Center, 2003).Google Scholar

61. Boueichou [Self-Defense Agency], Boei Hakusho [White Paper on Defense] (Tokyo, 2004).Google Scholar

62. Ken'ichi, Itou, ed., Kaiyou Kokka Nihon no Kousou: Sekai Chitsujo to Chiiki Chitsujo [Conceiving of Japan as a Maritime Nation: World and Regional Order] (Tokyo: Nihon Kokusai Fooramu, 2001).Google Scholar

63. Jun, Tsunekawa, “Higashi Ajia no Enerugii Jukyuu to Senryaku Kankyou e no Eikyou” [Energy Supply and Demand in East Asia and Their Influence on the Strategic Environment], Bouei Kenkyuujo Kiyou 4, no. 2 (November 2001): 86; see also International Herald Tribune, April 28, 2000, and July 20, 2004.Google Scholar

64. Toshiya, Tsugami, Chuugoku Taitou: Nihon wa nani o subeki ka [The Rise of China: What Should Japan Do?] (Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shinbun-sha, 2003).Google Scholar

65. New York Times , August 9, 2004.Google Scholar

66. Wan, Ming, “Tensions in Recent Sino-Japanese Relations: The May 2002 Shenyang Incident,” Asian Survey 43, no. 5 (2003): 826–844.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

67. Heginbotham, Eric and Samuels, Richard J., “Japan's Dual Hedge,” Foreign Affairs 81, no. 5 (September–October 2002): 120–121; Rapp, William E., “Past Its Prime? The Future of the U.S.-Japan Alliance,” U.S. Army War College, Parameters (Summer 2004): 104–120. White, Hugh, “The US, Taiwan and the PRC—Managing China's Rise: Policy Options for Australia,” Melbourne Asia Policy Papers no. 5, November 2004, available at http://www.asialink.unimelb.edu.au/cpp/policypapers/mapp5.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

68. An advisory council report submitted to the prime minister to guide revisions to the National Defense Program Outline scheduled for the end of 2004 recommends a wider-ranging conception of possible threats to Japanese security and more intimate defense cooperation with the United States, but it remains cautious on China and Taiwan, each of which is mentioned only once, and emphasizes that “failure to achieve a peaceful resolution of conflicts over resource development and other problems in Japan's vicinity could have serious consequences for Japan's security.” The Council on Security and Defense Capabilities, “Anzen hoshou to boueiryoku ni kansuru kondankai' houkokusho—mirai e no anzen houshou/boueiryoku bijion” [The Council on Security and Defense Capabilities Report: Japan's Visions for Future Security and Defense Capabilities], October 2004, p. 64 (the original Japanese is on p. 4). Similarly, according to press leaks, a confidential Self-Defense Agency discussion paper written in September 2004 highlights potential threats to Japan from growing Chinese military capabilities and disputes over Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diayutai islands, but it also emphasizes the need for diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict with China. Kyodo News, November 8, 2004.Google Scholar

69. Mainichi Shinbun , January 5, 2004.Google Scholar

70. Boueichou Bouei Kenkyuujo [Self-Defense Agency, National Institute for Defense Studies], Higashi Ajia Senryaku Gaikan [East Asian Strategic Review] (Tokyo: Boueichou Bouei Kenkyuujo, 2004), pp. 7–26, 105–110.Google Scholar

71. Heginbotham, and Samuels, , “Japan's Dual Hedge.” Google Scholar

72. On power transition theory, see Schweller, Randall L., “Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory,” in Johnston, and Ross, , eds., Engaging China , pp. 1–31; cf. Haggard, Stephan, “The Balance of Power, Globalization, and Democracy: International Relations Theory in Northeast Asia,” Journal of East Asian Studies 4, no. 1 (January–March 2004): 1–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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74. Kang, David C., “Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks,” International Security 27, no. 4 (2003): 57–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar