Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-29T01:15:26.491Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

STABILITY AND CHANGES IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN TAIWAN: AN EXAMINATION OF LIFE CYCLE, COHORT, AND PERIOD EFFECTS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 July 2021

Rou-lan Chen
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article builds on the theoretical debate over age, period, and cohort effects (APC) and explores how these factors might affect Taiwan's partisan stability. We conducted a two-level multinomial logit random effects model using survey data from 1991 to 2020 to disentangle the APC effects. Our findings challenge Converse's core assumption that partisanship strengthens with age. As a new democracy, Taiwan's party affiliations remain fluid, and we do find evidence of period effects, particularly associated with cross-Strait crises that favor the DPP. However, generational replacement is the most significant factor driving party identity changes in Taiwan. With generational replacement, the Kuomintang is burdened by the image of a century-old party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had previously fared better among young cohorts but has recently lost its support from millennials. The youngest generation increasingly refuses to associate with the traditional political parties. It seems reasonable to expect that the new generational forces will restructure the Blue–Green cleavage and expand the ideological diversity of Taiwan's party system.

Keywords

life cyclegenerational effectAPCThird Forcecross-strait crisis
Type
Article
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 21 , Issue 2 , July 2021 , pp. 331 - 352
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the East Asia Institute

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abramson, Paul R. 1975. Generational Change in American Politics. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Abramson, Paul R. 1976. “Generational Change and the Decline of Party Identification in America: 1952–1974.” American Political Science Review 70 (1): 469–478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramson, Paul R. 1979. “Developing Party Identification: A Further Examination of Life Cycle, Generational, and Period Effects.” American Journal of Political Science 23 (1): 78–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramson, Paul R. 1992. “Of Time and Partisan Instability in Britain.” British Journal of Political Science 22 (3): 381–395.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Andrew, and Jones, Kelvyn. 2014. “Another ‘Futile Quest’? A Simulation Study of Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Model.” Demographic Research 30: 333–360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Andrew, and Jones, Kelvyn. 2015a. “Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data.” Political Science Research and Methods 3 (1): 133–153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Andrew, and Jones, Kelvyn. 2015b. “Bayesian Informative Priors with Yang and Land's Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Model.” Quality and Quantity 49 (1): 255–266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Andrew, and Jones, Kelvyn. 2018. “The Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Model: Why Does It Find the Results That It Finds?” Quality and Quantity 52 (2): 783–799.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Braungart, Richard G. 1974. “The Sociology of Generations and Student Politics: A Comparison of the Functionalist and Generational Unit Models.” Journal of Social Issues 30 (2): 31–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braungart, R. G., and Braungart, M. M.. 1986. “Life-Course and Generational Politics.” Annual Review of Sociology 12 (1): 205–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, David, and Stokes, Donald. 1969. Political Change in Britain. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., and Stokes, D. E.. 1960. The American Voter. Oxford: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Chen, Lu-Huei. 2000. “Change and Continuity of Party Identification among the Electorate in Taiwan.” Journal of Electoral Studies 7 (2): 109–141.Google Scholar
Chen, Lu-Huei, and Chen, Ying-Nan. 2013. “The Base of Parties in Taiwan: Change and Stability.” In The 2012 Presidential and Legislative Elections: Change and Stability, ed. Chen Lu-Huei. Taipei: Wu-nan.Google Scholar
Chen, Rou-lan. 2012. “Beyond National Identity in Taiwan: Multidimensional and Evolutionary Conceptualization.” Asian Survey 52 (5): 845–871.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Yih-Yan. 1995. “Bu Tong Zu Qun Zheng Zhi Wen Hua De Shi Dai Fen Xi” [An Analysis of Political Culture of Different Ethnic Political Generations in Taiwan]. Chinese Political Science Review (Zheng Zhi Xue Bao) 27: 83–121.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1969. “Of Time and Partisan Stability.” Comparative Political Studies 2 (1): 139–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1976. The Dynamics of Party Support: Cohort-Analyzing Party Identification. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. 1984. “Cognitive Mobilization and Partisan Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies.” Journal of Politics 14 (46): 264–284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. 2000. Citizen Politics in Western Democracies; Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Thousand Oaks: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. 2002. Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of China 2002, available at https://eng.stat.gov.tw/np.asp?CtNode=1524 (accessed August 2, 2018).Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Duverger, Maurice. 1954. Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Fell, Dafydd. 2005. Party Politics in Taiwan: Party Change and the Democratic Evolution of Taiwan, 1991–2004. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Fell, Dafydd. 2018. “How Taiwan's ‘Third Force’ Parties Missed a Golden Electoral Opportunity.” The News Lens. November 11. https://international.thenewslens.com/feature/bluewave/109298.Google Scholar
Fu, Wenjiang J. 2000. ‘‘Ridge Estimator in Singular Design with Application to Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Disease Rates.’’ Communications in Statistics-Theory and Method 29: 263–278.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glenn, Norval D. 1974. “Aging and Conservatism.” Annals of the Academy of Political and Social Science 415: 176–186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glenn, Norval D. 2003. “Distinguishing Age, Period, and Cohort Effects.” In Handbook of the Life Course, ed. Mortimer, J. T. and Shanahan, M. J., 465–76. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glenn, Norval D., and Hefner, Ted. 1972. “Further Evidence on Aging and Party Identification.” Public Opinion Quarterly 36: 31–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gold, Thomas. 2000. “The 2000 Presidential Election and Taiwan's Identity.” In Taiwan's Presidential Election 2000: the First Major Cross-Strait Development in the 21st Century, ed. Liu, Philip H.P.. Washington D.C.: The Center for Strategic and International Studies.Google Scholar
Grasso, M. T. 2014. “Age, Period and Cohort Analysis in a Comparative Context: Political Generations and Political Participation Repertoires in Western Europe.” Electoral Studies 33: 63–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Donald Philip, and Schickler, Erik. 1996. “The Grim Reaper, the Stork and Partisan Change in the North and South, 1952–1994.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan. 1988. “The Politics of Industrialisation in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan.” In Achieving Industrialization in East Asia, ed. Hughes, Helen, 260–282. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsiau, A-Chin. 2005. “Generational Identity and Historical Narrative: The Emergence of the ‘Back-to-Reality’ Generation in 1970s Taiwan.” Taiwanese Sociology 9: 1–58.Google Scholar
Hsieh, Fuh-Sheng J. 2010. “Is the Kuomintang Invincible?” In Taiwan's Politics in the 21st Century: Changes and Challenges, ed. Wei-Chin Lee, 25–40. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Huang, Chi. 2017. “Electoral System Change and Its Effects on the Party System in Taiwan.” In The Taiwan Voter, ed. Achen, Christopher H. and Wang, T. Y., 223–51. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. “Political Value Orientations.” In Continuities in Political Action: A Longitudinal Study of Political Orientations in Three Western Democracies, ed. Kent Jennings, M. and van Deth, Jan W.. New York: Walter de Gruyter.Google Scholar
Jou, Yuh-Huey, and Chu, Ruey-Ling. 2008. “Psychological Needs, Sense of Alienation, and Mental-Physical Disorders: Social Change in Taiwan.” Taiwanese Journal of Sociology 41: 59–95.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1955. “Theory of Critical Election.” Journal of Politics 17 (1): 3–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kupper, Lawrence L., Janis, Joseph M., Karmous, Azza, and Greenberg, Bernard G.. 1985. “Statistical Age–Period–Cohort Analysis: A Review and Critique.” Journal of Chronic Diseases 38 (10): 811–830.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Laakso, M., and Taagepera, R.. 1979. “Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe.” Comparative Political Studies 12: 3–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leithner, Christan. 1997. “Of Time and Partisan Stability Revisited: Australia and New Zealand 1905–90.” American Journal of Political Science 41 (4): 1104–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M. S., Jacoby, William G., Norpoth, Helmut, and Weisberg, Herbert F.. 2009. The American Voter Revisited. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Liu, I-chou. 1994. “Generational Difference of Party Image among Taiwanese Voters.” Journal of Electoral Studies 1 (1): 24–35.Google Scholar
Lin, Thung-hong. 2014. “Generational Politics in Taiwan Revisited: Application of a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model: 1995–2010.” Journal of Social Science and Philosophy 27 (2): 395–436Google Scholar
Luo, Liying Luo, and Hodges, James S.. 2016. “Block Constraints in Age–Period–Cohort Models with Unequal-width Intervals.” Sociological Methods & Research 45 (4): 700–726.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mannheim, K. 1952. “The Problem of Generations.” In Essays on the Sociology of Knowledge, ed. Kecskemeti, P.. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Markus, Gregory B. 1983. “Dynamic Modeling of Cohort Change: The Case of Political Partisanship.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (4): 717–739.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2002. Democratic Phoenix: Reinventing Political Activism. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Brien, R.M. 2000. “Age Period Cohort Characteristic Models.” Social Science Research 29: 123–139.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O'Rand, Angela, and Krecker, Margaret. 1990. “Concepts of the Life Cycle: Their History, Meanings, and Uses in the Social Sciences.” Annual Review of Sociology 16: 241–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reither, Eric N., Land, Kenneth C., Jeon, Sun Y., Powers, Daniel A., Masters, Ryan K., Zheng, Hui, Hardy, Melissa A., Keyes, Katherine M., Fu, Qiang, Hanson, Heidi A., Smith, Ken R., Utz, Rebecca L., Yang, Y. Claire. 2015. “Clarifying Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Models: A Rejoinder to Bell and Jones.” Social Science and Medicine 145: 125–128.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rigger, Shelley. 2001. From Opposition to Power: Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party. Colorado: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Rigger, Shelley. 2006. “Taiwan's Rising Rationalism: Generations, Politics, and ‘Taiwanese Nationalism.’” Policy Studies 26. Washington, DC: East–West Center.Google Scholar
Sheng, Shing-yuan. 2010. “Stability and Change of Party Identification among Taiwanese Voters: A Panel Data Analysis.” Journal of Electoral Studies 17 (2): 1–33.Google Scholar
Shively, W. Philips. 1972. “Party Identification, Party Choice, and Voting Stability: The Weimar Case.” The American Political Science Review 66 (4): 1203–1225.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shively, W. Philips. 1979. “The Development of Party Identification among Adults: Exploration of a Functional Model.” The American Political Science Review 73 (4): 1039–1054.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shively, W. Philips. 1982. “The Electoral Impact of Party Loyalists and the Floating Vote: A New Measure and a New Perspective.” Journal of Politics 44 (3): 679–691.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsai, Chia-hung, and Chen, Lu-huei. 2015. “China Factor or Civic Disobedience? Explaining Support for the Sunflower Movement with Panel Data.” Journal of Social Science and Philosophy 27 (4): 573–603.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, J. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Wu, Nai-teh. 1999. “Jia Ting She Hui Hua He Yi Shi Xing Tai: Tai Wan Xuan Min Xheng Dang Ren Tong De Shi Dai Cha Yi” [Family Socialization and Ideologies: Generation Difference in Party Identification among Taiwan's Voters]. Taiwanese Sociological Review (Tai Wan She Hui Xue Yan Jiu) 3: 53–85.Google Scholar
Wu, Yu-Shan. 2004. “Taiwanese Nationalism and Its Implications.” Asian Survey 44 (4): 614–625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yang, Yang. 2006. “Bayesian Inference for Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Models of Repeated Cross-Section Survey Data.” Sociological Methodology 36 (1): 39–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yang, Yang, and Land, Kenneth C.. 2013. Age–Period–Cohort Analysis: New Models, Methods, and Empirical Applications. Boca Raton: CRC Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar