Hostname: page-component-669899f699-g7b4s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-05-03T07:56:01.288Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Statistical gender discrimination: evidence from young workers across four decades and 56 countries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 December 2024

Joanna Tyrowicz  and
Lucas van der Velde Open the ORCID record for Lucas van der Velde [Opens in a new window]
Joanna Tyrowicz
Affiliation:
FAME|GRAPE, Warsaw, Poland University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany IZA, Bonn, Germany
Lucas van der Velde*
Affiliation:
FAME|GRAPE, Warsaw, Poland Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
*
Corresponding author: Lucas van der Velde; Email: [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Statistical discrimination offers a compelling narrative on gender wage gaps among younger workers. Employers could reduce women's wages to adjust for expected costs linked to child-bearing. If this is the case, then trends toward delayed fertility should reduce the gender wage gap among young workers. We provide a novel collection of adjusted gender wage gap (AGWG) estimates among young workers from 56 countries spanning four decades and use it to test the conjecture that delayed fertility reduces gender wage inequality. We employ instrumental variables, and find that one year postponement of the first birth reduces AGWG by two percentage points (15% of the AGWG). We benchmark this estimate with the help of time-use data.

Keywords

gender wage gapstatistical discriminationyouth

JEL classification

J71: Discrimination J31: Wage Level and Structure • Wage Differentials J13: Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth
Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 90 , Special Issue 4: ESPE , December 2024 , pp. 659 - 688
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press in association with Université catholique de Louvain

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Adda, J., Dustmann, C., & Stevens, K. (2017). The career costs of children. Journal of Political Economy, 125(2), 293–337. https://doi.org/10.1086/690952CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Altonji, J. G., & Pierret, C. R. (2001). Employer learning and statistical discrimination. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 313–350. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355301556329CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amuedo-Dorantes, C., & Kimmel, J. (2005). The motherhood wage gap for women in the United States: The importance of college and fertility delay. Review of Economics of the Household, 3(1), 17–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-004-0978-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ananat, E. O., & Hungerman, D. M. (2012). The power of the pill for the next generation: Oral contraception's effects on fertility, abortion, and maternal and child characteristics. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(1), 37–51. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arrow, K. (1973). The theory of discrimination. Princeton University Press, pp. 3–33.Google Scholar
Auspurg, K., Hinz, T., & Sauer, C. (2017). Why should women get less? Evidence on the gender pay gap from multifactorial survey experiments. American Sociological Review, 82(1), 179–210. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122416683393CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baert, S. (2014). Career lesbians. Getting hired for not having kids? Industrial Relations Journal, 45(6), 543–561. https://doi.org/10.1111/irj.2014.45.issue-6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, M. J. (2006). More power to the pill: The impact of contraceptive freedom on women's life cycle labor supply. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(1), 289–320.Google Scholar
Bailey, M. J. (2010). ‘Momma's got the pill’: How Anthony Comstock and Griswold v. Connecticut shaped US childbearing. American Economic Review, 100(1), 98–129. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.1.98CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, M. J., Hershbein, B., & Miller, A. R. (2012). The opt-in revolution? Contraception and the gender gap in wages. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(3), 225–54.Google ScholarPubMed
Baizan, P., Arpino, B., & Delclós, C. E. (2016). The effect of gender policies on fertility: The moderating role of education and normative context. European Journal of Population, 32(1), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-015-9356-yCrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Baltagi, B. H. (1981). Simultaneous equations with error components. Journal of Econometrics, 17(2), 189–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90026-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartoš, V., Bauer, M., Chytilová, J., & Matějka, F. (2016). Attention discrimination: Theory and field experiments with monitoring information acquisition. American Economic Review, 106(6), 1437–75. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20140571CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, G. S. (1971). The economics of discrimination. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, S. O., Fernandes, A., & Weichselbaumer, D. (2019). Discrimination in hiring based on potential and realized fertility: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment. Labour Economics, 59, 139–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2019.04.009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergmann, B. (1973). Sex discrimination in wages: Comment. Princeton University Press, pp. 152–154.Google Scholar
Bingley, P., Lundborg, P., & Lyk-Jensen, S. V. (2020). The opportunity costs of mandatory military service: Evidence from a draft lottery. Journal of Labor Economics, 38(1), 39–66. https://doi.org/10.1086/704495CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, S. E., Devereux, P. J., & Salvanes, K. G. (2008). Staying in the classroom and out of the maternity ward? The effect of compulsory schooling laws on teenage births. Economic Journal, 118(530), 1025–1054. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02159.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blau, F. D., & Kahn, L. M. (2017). The gender wage gap: Extent, trends, and explanations. Journal of economic literature, 55(3), 789–865. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20160995CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boelmann, B., Raute, A., & Schönberg, U. (2020). Wind of change?: Cultural determinants of maternal labor supply. CREAM Discussion Paper 2020–20.Google Scholar
Bohren, J. A., Haggag, K., Imas, A., & Pope, D. G. (2019). Inaccurate statistical discrimination. NBER Working Paper 25935, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bongaarts, J., & Blanc, A. K. (2015). Estimating the current mean age of mothers at the birth of their first child from household surveys. Population Health Metrics, 13(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-015-0058-9CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Booth, A. L., & Kee, H. J. (2009). Intergenerational transmission of fertility patterns. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(2), 183–208. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.2009.71.issue-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunello, G., Fort, M., & Weber, G. (2009). Changes in compulsory schooling, education and the distribution of wages in Europe. The Economic Journal, 119(536), 516–539. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02244.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bygren, M., Erlandsson, A., & Gähler, M. (2017). Do employers prefer fathers? Evidence from a field experiment testing the gender by parenthood interaction effect on callbacks to job applications. European Sociological Review, 33(3), 337–348. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcx051CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Card, D., & Cardoso, A. R. (2012). Can compulsory military service raise civilian wages? Evidence from the peacetime draft in portugal. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(4), 57–93.Google Scholar
Cazes, S., & Tonin, M. (2010). Employment protection legislation and job stability: A European cross-country analysis. International Labour Review, 149(3), 261–285. https://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.2010.149.issue-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Correll, S. J., Benard, S., & Paik, I. (2007). Getting a job: Is there a motherhood penalty? American Journal of Sociology, 112(5), 1297–1338. https://doi.org/10.1086/511799CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cortés, P., & Pan, J. (2023). Children and the remaining gender gaps in the labor market. Journal of Economic Literature, 61(4), 1359–1409. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20221549CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Costa Dias, M., Joyce, R., & Parodi, F. (2020). The gender pay gap in the UK: Children and experience in work. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(4), 855–881. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa053CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cukrowska-Torzewska, E., & Lovasz, A. (2020). The role of parenthood in shaping the gender wage gap – a comparative analysis of 26 European countries. Social Science Research, 85, 102355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2019.102355CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cygan-Rehm, K., & Maeder, M. (2013). The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform. Labour Economics, 25, 35–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2013.04.015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Devereux, P. J., & Hart, R. A. (2010). Forced to be rich? Returns to compulsory schooling in Britain. The Economic Journal, 120(549), 1345–1364. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02365.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fenoll, A. A., & Kuehn, Z. (2017). Compulsory schooling laws and migration across European countries. Demography, 54(6), 2181–2200. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-017-0615-xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finlay, J., Canning, D., & Po, J. (2012). Reproductive health laws around the world. PGDA Working Papers 9612, Program on the Global Demography of Aging, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health.Google Scholar
Firpo, S., Fortin, N. M., & Lemieux, T. (2009). Unconditional quantile regressions. Econometrica, 77(3), 953–973. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6822Google Scholar
Fuller, S., & Cooke, L. P. (2018). Workplace variation in fatherhood wage premiums: Do formalization and performance pay matter? Work, Employment and Society, 32(4), 768–788. https://doi.org/10.1177/0950017018764534CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallen, Y. (2023). Motherhood and the gender productivity gap. BFIRE Working Paper 2018-41 updated from the author's website, Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics.Google Scholar
Gangl, M., & Ziefle, A. (2009). Motherhood, labor force behavior, and women's careers: An empirical assessment of the wage penalty for motherhood in Britain, Germany, and the United States. Demography, 46(2), 341–369. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0056CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Goldin, C. (2014). A grand gender convergence: It's last chapter. American Economic Review, 104(4), 1091–1119. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.4.1091CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2002). The power of the pill: Oral contraceptives and women's career and marriage decisions. Journal of Political Economy, 110(4), 730–770. https://doi.org/10.1086/340778CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldscheider, F., Bernhardt, E., & Brandén, M. (2013). Domestic gender equality and childbearing in Sweden. Demographic Research, 29, 1097–1126. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.40CrossRefGoogle Scholar
González, M. J., Cortina, C., & Rodríguez, J. (2019). The role of gender stereotypes in hiring: A field experiment. European Sociological Review, 35(2), 187–204. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcy055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goraus, K., Tyrowicz, J., & van der Velde, L. (2017). Which gender wage gap estimates to trust? A comparative analysis. Review of Income and Wealth, 63(1), 118–146. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.2017.63.issue-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grenet, J., Hart, R. A., & Roberts, J. E. (2011). Above and beyond the call. Long-term real earnings effects of British male military conscription in the post-war years. Labour Economics, 18(2), 194–204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2010.09.001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
He, D., Zhang, X., Wang, Z., & Jiang, Y. (2019). China fertility report, 2006–2016. China Population and Development Studies, 2(4), 430–439. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42379-019-00022-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
He, H., Li, S. X., & Han, Y. (2023). Labor market discrimination against family responsibilities: A correspondence study with policy change in China. Journal of Labor Economics, 41(2), 361–387. https://doi.org/10.1086/719966CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, J., & Navarro-Lozano, S. (2004). Using matching, instrumental variables, and control functions to estimate economic choice models. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1), 30–57. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465304323023660CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hipp, L. (2020). Do hiring practices penalize women and benefit men for having children? Experimental evidence from Germany. European Sociological Review, 36(2), 250–264. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcz056CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ishimaru, S. (2022). Empirical decomposition of the IV-OLS gap with heterogeneous and nonlinear effects. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1–45.Google Scholar
Jarrell, S. B., & Stanley, T. D. (2004). Declining bias and gender wage discrimination? A meta-regression analysis. The Journal of Human Resources, 39(3), 828. https://doi.org/10.2307/3558999CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleven, H., Landais, C., Posch, J., Steinhauer, A., & Zweimüller, J. (2019a). Child penalties across countries: Evidence and explanations. In AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 109 (pp. 122–26).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleven, H., Landais, C., & Søgaard, J. E. (2019b). Children and gender inequality: Evidence from Denmark. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(4), 181–209.Google Scholar
Kolk, M. (2014). Multigenerational transmission of family size in contemporary Sweden. Population Studies, 68(1), 111–129. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2013.819112CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kolk, M. (2015). The causal effect of an additional sibling on completed fertility: An estimation of intergenerational fertility correlations by looking at siblings of twins. Demographic Research, 32, 1409–1420. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.51CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuziemko, I., Pan, J., Shen, J., & Washington, E. (2018). The mommy effect: Do women anticipate the employment effects of motherhood? NBER Working Paper 24740, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Landivar, L. C. (2020). First-birth timing and the motherhood wage gap in 140 occupations. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, 6, 237802312093942.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, D. L., McCrary, J., Moreira, M. J., & Porter, J. (2020). Valid t-ratio inference for IV. Preprint arXiv:2010.05058.Google Scholar
Mogstad, M., & Torgovitsky, A. (2018). Identification and extrapolation of causal effects with instrumental variables. Annual Review of Economics, 10, 577–613. https://doi.org/10.1146/economics.2018.10.issue-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mogstad, M., Torgovitsky, A., & Walters, C. R. (2021). The causal interpretation of two-stage least squares with multiple instrumental variables. American Economic Review, 111(11), 3663–98. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190221CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mouganie, P. (2019). Conscription and the returns to education: Evidence from a regression discontinuity. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 122(3), 1112–1139. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.v122.3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mulligan, C. B., & Shleifer, A. (2005). Conscription as regulation. American Law and Economics Review, 7(1), 85–111. https://doi.org/10.1093/aler/ahi009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murtin, F., & Viarengo, M. (2011). The expansion and convergence of compulsory schooling in Western Europe, 1950–2000. Economica, 78(311), 501–522. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00840.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neels, K., Murphy, M., Ní Bhrolcháin, M., & Beaujouan, E. (2017). Rising educational participation and the trend to later childbearing. Population and Development Review, 43(4), 667–693. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.2017.43.issue-4CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nopo, H. (2008). Matching as a tool to decompose wage gaps. Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 290–299. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.290CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norman, P. (2003). Statistical discrimination and efficiency. Review of Economic Studies, 70(3), 615–627. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00258CrossRefGoogle Scholar
OECD (2024). Fertility rates (indicator).Google Scholar
Okun, B. S., & Raz-Yurovich, L. (2019). Housework, gender role attitudes, and couples’ fertility intentions: Reconsidering men's roles in gender theories of family change. Population and Development Review, 45(1), 169–196. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.2019.45.issue-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oreopoulos, P. (2005). Canadian compulsory school laws and their impact on educational. Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 11F0019MIE, Statistics Canada.Google Scholar
Pager, D., & Karafin, D. (2009). Bayesian bigot? Statistical discrimination, stereotypes, and employer decision making. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 621(1), 70–93. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716208324628CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Pearson, K., & Lee, A. (1899). On the inheritance of fertility in mankind. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, 192, 257–330. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1899.0006Google Scholar
Peterson Gloor, J. L., Okimoto, T. G., & King, E. B. (2021). ‘Maybe baby?’ The employment risk of potential parenthood. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 52(8), 623–642. https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.v52.8CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petit, P. (2007). The effects of age and family constraints on gender hiring discrimination: A field experiment in the French financial sector. Labour Economics, 14(3), 371–391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2006.01.006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phelps, E. S. (1972). The statistical theory of racism and sexism. American Economic Review, 62(4), 659–661.Google Scholar
Pischke, J.-S., & von Wachter, T. (2008). Zero returns to compulsory schooling in germany: Evidence and interpretation. Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(3), 592–598. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.3.592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwab, S. (1986). Is statistical discrimination efficient? American Economic Review, 76(1), 228–234.Google Scholar
Steenhof, L., & Liefbroer, A. C. (2008). Intergenerational transmission of age at first birth in the Netherlands for birth cohorts born between 1935 and 1984: Evidence from municipal registers. Population Studies, 62(1), 69–84. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324720701788616CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Taniguchi, H. (1999). The timing of childbearing and women's wages. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 61(4), 1008. https://doi.org/10.2307/354020CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Velde, L., Tyrowicz, J., & Siwinska, J. (2015). Language and (the estimates of) the gender wage gap. Economics Letters, 136, 165–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.08.014CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vignoli, D., Drefahl, S., & De Santis, G. (2012). Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners. Demographic Research, 26, 41–62. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vignoli, D., Tocchioni, V., & Mattei, A. (2020). The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement. Advances in Life Course Research, 45, 100308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2019.100308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, P., & Chen, J. (2023). Fertility-based employment discrimination and family policy: Evidence from a field experiment. Social Policy & Administration, 57(7), 1135–1149. https://doi.org/10.1111/spol.v57.7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weichselbaumer, D., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2005). A meta-analysis of the international gender wage gap. Journal of Economic Surveys, 19(3), 479–511. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00256.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, J., & Neels, K. (2017). First a job, then a child? Subgroup variation in women's employment-fertility link. Advances in Life Course Research, 33, 38–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2016.09.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yu, W.-h., & Hara, Y. (2021). Motherhood penalties and fatherhood premiums: Effects of parenthood on earnings growth within and across firms. Demography, 58(1), 247–272. https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-8917608CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Supplementary material: File

Tyrowicz and van der Velde supplementary material

Tyrowicz and van der Velde supplementary material
Download Tyrowicz and van der Velde supplementary material(File)
File 908.5 KB