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The geography of climate migration

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 March 2021

Michał Burzyński ,
Frédéric Docquier Open the ORCID record for Frédéric Docquier [Opens in a new window]  and
Hendrik Scheewel Open the ORCID record for Hendrik Scheewel [Opens in a new window]
Michał Burzyński
Affiliation:
LISER, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
Frédéric Docquier*
Affiliation:
LISER, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
Hendrik Scheewel
Affiliation:
Université de Liège and IRES, UCLouvain, Liège, Belgium
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

Keywords

Brain drainclimate changemigrationurbanization

JEL classification

Q54: Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming J61: Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers E24: Employment • Unemployment • Wages • Intergenerational Income Distribution • Aggregate Human Capital • Aggregate Labor Productivity F22: International Migration J24: Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity
Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 87 , Special Issue 3: Climate Migration , September 2021 , pp. 345 - 381
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press in association with Université catholique de Louvain

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