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Gazing at long-term linkages between agricultural land use and population growth in India: an inverted “U-shape” relationship

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 December 2024

Arjun Jana Open the ORCID record for Arjun Jana [Opens in a new window]  and
Srinivas Goli Open the ORCID record for Srinivas Goli [Opens in a new window]
Arjun Jana
Affiliation:
Department of Population & Development, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
Srinivas Goli*
Affiliation:
Department of Fertility & Social Demography, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
*
Corresponding author: Srinivas Goli; Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

Keywords

population growthMalthusian theoryBoserupian theoryagricultural landland–population relationshipdynamic panel data analysisspatial econometrics

JEL classification

Q56: Environment and Development • Environment and Trade • Sustainability • Environmental Accounts and Accounting • Environmental Equity • Population Growth Q15: Land Ownership and Tenure • Land Reform • Land Use • Irrigation • Agriculture and Environment J11: Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , First View , pp. 1 - 45
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press in association with Université catholique de Louvain

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