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506 Evaluating prediction models for conversion of clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A systematic review

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 April 2025

Mei-An Nolan
Affiliation:
Tufts University
Danielle Howard
Affiliation:
Tufts School of Medicine
James Beck
Affiliation:
New York University School of Medicine
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Abstract

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Objectives/Goals: Accurately stratifying patients with clinically isolated syndrome by risk of developing multiple sclerosis is of great clinical importance. Though numerous prediction models attempt to achieve this goal, no systematic review exists to independently evaluate these models. We aim to systematically identify and assess the risk of bias in all such models. Methods/Study Population: Studies developing or validating prediction models to assess risk of developing MS in patients with CIS who are not receiving an MS-indicated disease-modifying therapeutic will be identified via a systematic literature search. Studies will be evaluated for overall risk of bias using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool). Briefly, data sources, predictor, and outcome definition and assessment, applicability, and analysis will be assessed for each model in each identified study, and an overall risk of biased judgment will be assigned. Identified studies, predictors incorporated, results, and risk of bias assessment with accompanying rationale will be summarized in the final report. Results/Anticipated Results: Based on an initial exploratory search, we anticipate that most, if not all, identified prediction models will have high risk of bias. We anticipate that many studies will have limited applicability due to the use of outdated diagnostic criteria for definition of outcomes, or high risk of bias concerns originating from their analysis due to insufficient volume of included participants or poor model validation practices. We further anticipate that most, if not all, of the identified prediction models will have limited potential to be translated to use in a clinical setting. Discussion/Significance of Impact: Understanding how to identify patients with high-risk CIS may inform and improve clinician treatment decisions, patient outcomes, and future research study design. This work may also reveal flaws in current prediction models for CIS, opening new avenues of research and prompting development of improved prognostic models for patients with CIS.

Type
Precision Medicine/Health
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. The Association for Clinical and Translational Science