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394 A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting High-Risk Irritability Trajectories Across the Transition to Adolescence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 April 2024

Leslie S. Jordan
Affiliation:
Program in Neuroscience and Cognitive Science, University of Maryland, College Park; Department of Psychology, University of Maryland College Park; Institute for Clinical & Translational Research (ICTR) Internal TL Pre-Doctoral Clinical Research, University of Maryland Baltimore
Alyssa J. Parker
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, College Park
Jillian Lee Wiggins
Affiliation:
Joint Doctoral Program in Clinical Psychology, San Diego State University/ University of California, San Diego
Lea R. Dougherty
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, College Park
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Abstract

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OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Irritability, a proneness to anger and frustration, is a transdiagnostic symptom associated with poor mental health outcomes. Levels of irritability vary across development and high-risk trajectories have been observed. This study aims to use machine learning to predict irritability trajectories across the transition to adolescence. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Data were from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, which is a 10-year longitudinal study that tracks the brain development, cognitive skills, physical health, and psychosocial functioning of a large, national sample starting from preadolescence. The baseline sample consisted of 11,861 9-10-year-old preadolescent youth. Irritability was parent-rated at baseline, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year follow-ups on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) irritability index. Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was used to determine developmental trajectories of irritability. Two machine learning approaches were applied to develop predictive models of youth irritability developmental trajectories. We used baseline (preadolescent) variables that spanned a wide range of domains. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Preliminary results fromthe LCGA indicated best support for a four-class model that differentiated growth trajectories in irritability across the transition to adolescence: 1) persistent low irritability (n = 8691, 73.27%), 2) moderate irritability and decreasing (n = 1257, 10.60%), 3) low to moderate irritability and increasing (n = 1295, 10.92%), and 4) chronic high irritability (n = 618, 5.21%). We expect the machine learning analyses to generate predictive models with acceptable accuracy. We hypothesize that the most important predictors in the models will originate from the youth mental health domain, including baseline youth irritability, externalizing symptoms, internalizing symptoms, and oppositional behaviors, and the parent psychopathology domain, particularly parent irritability. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study elucidates unique developmental trajectories of irritability and generates predictive models to classify high-risk irritability trajectories using machine learning approaches. Clinicians can use these predictive models to identify at-risk youth and provide early intervention to preadolescents at high risk.

Type
Precision Medicine/Health
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. The Association for Clinical and Translational Science