Published online by Cambridge University Press: 31 July 2008
Instead of divorce rates per 1000 married population, the actual divorce percentages expressed as the proportion of marriages contracted in successive years since 1911 are calculated from a random sample of 3392 first marriages in Amsterdam. The results show the highest divorce percentages for younger men, decreasing from 40% if they were married at 19 years of age to 12% if they were married at 30 years of age. Women attained these values if married at 17 and 28 years of age, respectively. The divorce percentage has increased from 10% for marriages contracted in 1911 to 20% for those contracted in the period 1941–45. The linear increase suggests that about 25% of marriages contracted in the period 1966–70 will end in divorce. This trend seems to depend on changes in the median age of marriage as well as on different divorce tendencies for men marrying at different ages.
It is hoped that the method of calculating divorce trends according to the year of marriage, and to specific age-groups, as used in this study, might yield more information about the range of the divorce problem than the more traditional methods of populations statistics.