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AGE AND FERTILITY: CAN WOMEN WAIT UNTIL THEIR EARLY THIRTIES TO TRY FOR A FIRST BIRTH?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 September 2011

JOHN W. McDONALD ,
ALESSANDRO ROSINA ,
ESTER RIZZI  and
BERNARDO COLOMBO
JOHN W. McDONALD
Affiliation:
Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, London, UK
ALESSANDRO ROSINA
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Universita Cattolica – Milano, Italy
ESTER RIZZI
Affiliation:
Research Centre on Population and Societies, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
BERNARDO COLOMBO
Affiliation:
Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Universita di Padova, Italy
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Summary

Postponing the start of childbearing raises the question of fertility postponed versus fertility foregone. One of the limitations of previous studies of ‘How late can you wait?’ is that any observed decline in the probability of conception with age could be due to a decline in fecundability with age or due to a decline in coital frequency with age or due to both factors. Using data from a multinational longitudinal study conducted to determine the daily probability of conception among healthy subjects, a discrete-time event history model with long-term survivors (sterile population) is used to study the relationship between age and fecundability for childless women, while controlling for the pattern of intercourse within a menstrual cycle. The findings suggest that women can wait until their early thirties to try for a first birth, providing that they are not already sterile, as the magnitude of the decline in fecundability is very modest and of little practical importance.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Biosocial Science , Volume 43 , Issue 6 , November 2011 , pp. 685 - 700
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

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