Published online by Cambridge University Press: 31 July 2008
The birth rates per 1000 married females of specified ages and durations of marriage generally attained their post-war maxima in 1946–47 and then declined. While this declining trend was a brief one for females of younger ages and shorter durations of marriage, it continued for females of older ages and longer durations. Since 1961 the rates for all (younger and older) women have declined markedly. Does this recent decline in annual fertility, especially that for females of younger ages and shorter durations of marriage, herald a decline in the total fertility of cohorts who have not yet completed their childbearing? Many believe it to be so. However, an examination of the cumulative fertility of cohorts marrying since 1936 showed that (a) the total fertility of cohorts who have completed their childbearing varied between a narrow range of 2500–3000 and (b) the cumulative fertility up to 5 or 10 years of marriage duration of later cohorts was considerably higher (13–40% higher) than that of earlier cohorts. These facts, and similar ones for Australia covering a wider period (Basavarajappa, 1964), are thought to suggest that the total fertility of cohorts who have not yet completed their childbearing might not be far outside the limits of 2500 and 3000.