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The decline in fertility in England and Wales since 1964

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 July 2008

G. N. Pollard
G. N. Pollard
Affiliation:
School of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia
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Summary

The decline in the number of legitimate live births in England and Wales from the peak in 1964 has been partitioned into components due to changes in fertility rates, components due to changes in the composition of the population exposed to risk, and an interaction component. Fertility rates specific for age of mother at birth of child, duration of marriage, parity and age of mother at marriage were considered but in all cases it was found that the decline was not as great as the change in fertility rates implied. This was due to increases in the number of births due to changes in the composition of the population exposed to risk.

The decline in the number of births due to changes in fertility rates specific for age of mother/duration of marriage/parity/age at marriage has been expressed as a percentage of the number of births to each specific group and it was found that generally the percentage decline became greater as age of mother/duration of marriage/parity/age at marriage increased. However this did not apply for the youngest age groups, the shortest durations of marriage, the youngest ages at marriage and the lowest parity. This result needs further investigation. Is this evidence of a deferment of births by young mothers (with short durations, low parities and young ages at marriage)? Alternatively, is this evidence of the beginning of a really significant and widespread change of attitude to family size?

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Biosocial Science , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , April 1977 , pp. 227 - 237
Copyright
Copyright © 1977, Cambridge University Press

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References

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