We analyse several aspects of a class of simple counting processes that can emerge in some fields of applications where a change point occurs. In particular, under simple conditions we prove a significant inequality for the stochastic intensity.

We give some explicit formulae for the prices of two path-dependent options which combine Brownian averages and penalizations. Because these options are based on both the maximum and local time of Brownian motion, obtaining their prices necessitates some involved study of homogeneous Brownian functionals, which may be of interest in their own right.

We use a discrete-time analysis, giving necessary and sufficient conditions for the almost-sure convergence of ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) discrete-time models, to suggest an extension of the ARCH and GARCH concepts to continuous-time processes. Our ‘COGARCH’ (continuous-time GARCH) model, based on a single background driving Lévy process, is different from, though related to, other continuous-time stochastic volatility models that have been proposed. The model generalises the essential features of discrete-time GARCH processes, and is amenable to further analysis, possessing useful Markovian and stationarity properties.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the real-time trading of electricity. We address a model for an auction-like trading which captures key features of real-world electricity markets. Our main result establishes that, under certain conditions, the expected total payment for electricity is independent of the particular auction type. This result is analogous to the revenue-equivalence theorem known for classical auctions and could contribute to an improved understanding of different electricity market designs and their comparison.

This paper proposes a class of complete financial market models, the benchmark models, with security price processes that exhibit intensity-based jumps. The benchmark or reference unit is chosen to be the growth-optimal portfolio. Primary security account prices, when expressed in units of the benchmark, turn out to be local martingales. In the proposed framework an equivalent risk-neutral measure need not exist. Benchmarked fair derivative prices are obtained as conditional expectations of future benchmarked prices under the real-world probability measure. This concept of fair pricing generalizes the classical risk-neutral approach and the actuarial present-value pricing methodology.

A continuous-time random walk is a simple random walk subordinated to a renewal process used in physics to model anomalous diffusion. In this paper we show that, when the time between renewals has infinite mean, the scaling limit is an operator Lévy motion subordinated to the hitting time process of a classical stable subordinator. Density functions for the limit process solve a fractional Cauchy problem, the generalization of a fractional partial differential equation for Hamiltonian chaos. We also establish a functional limit theorem for random walks with jumps in the strict generalized domain of attraction of a full operator stable law, which is of some independent interest.

We consider two classes of life distribution, V D and V I , the members of which are defined in terms of the conditional variance σ 2(t) of the remaining lifetime of a system: a life distribution F belongs to V D if is a decreasing function and to V I if is increasing. We study closure properties of these classes under relevant reliability operations such as mixing, convolution and formation of coherent systems. We show, for example, that the class V D is not closed under convolution or mixing, and that the class V I is not closed under formation of coherent systems.

We investigate the Russian option with a finite time horizon in the standard Black–Scholes model. The value of the option is shown to be a solution of a certain parabolic free boundary problem, and the optimal stopping boundary is shown to be continuous. Moreover, the asymptotic behavior of the optimal stopping boundary near expiration is studied.

The iterative division of a triangle by chords which join a randomly-selected vertex of a triangle to the opposite side is investigated. Results on the limiting random graph which eventuates are given. Aspects studied are: the order of vertices; the fragmentation of chords; age distributions for elements of the graph; various topological characterisations of the triangles. Different sampling protocols are explored. Extensive use is made of the theory of branching processes.

We consider minimum relative entropy calibration of a given prior distribution to a finite set of moment constraints. We show that the calibration algorithm is stable (in the Prokhorov metric) under a perturbation of the prior and the calibrated distributions converge in variation to the measure from which the moments have been taken as more constraints are added. These facts are used to explain the limiting properties of the minimum relative entropy Monte Carlo calibration algorithm.

Bessel processes with constant negative drift have recently appeared as heavy-traffic limits in queueing theory. We derive a closed-form expression for the spectral representation of the transition density of the Bessel process of order ν > −1 with constant drift μ ≠ 0. When ν > -½ and μ < 0, the first term of the spectral expansion is the steady-state gamma density corresponding to the zero principal eigenvalue λ 0 = 0, followed by an infinite series of terms corresponding to the higher eigenvalues λ n , n = 1,2,…, as well as an integral over the continuous spectrum above μ 2/2. When −1 < ν < -½ and μ < 0, there is only one eigenvalue λ 0 = 0 in addition to the continuous spectrum. As well as applications in queueing, Bessel processes with constant negative drift naturally lead to two new nonaffine analytically tractable specifications for short-term interest rates, credit spreads, and stochastic volatility in finance. The two processes serve as alternatives to the CIR process for modelling mean-reverting positive economic variables and have nonlinear infinitesimal drift and variance. On a historical note, the Sturm–Liouville equation associated with Bessel processes with constant negative drift is closely related to the celebrated Schrödinger equation with Coulomb potential used to describe the hydrogen atom in quantum mechanics. Another connection is with D. G. Kendall's pole-seeking Brownian motion.

This paper studies recurrence properties of autoregressive (AR) processes with ‘super-heavy-tailed’ innovations. Specifically, we study the case where the innovations are distributed, roughly speaking, as log-Pareto random variables (i.e. the tail decay is essentially a logarithm raised to some power). We show that these processes exhibit interesting and somewhat surprising behaviour. In particular, we show that AR(1) processes, with the usual root assumption that is necessary for stability, can exhibit null-recurrent as well as transient dynamics when the innovations follow a log-Cauchy-type distribution. In this regime, the recurrence classification of the process depends, somewhat surprisingly, on the value of the constant pre-multiplier of this distribution. More generally, for log-Pareto innovations, we provide a positive-recurrence/null-recurrence/transience classification of the corresponding AR processes.

In this paper we consider some dependence properties and orders among multivariate distributions, and we study their preservation under mixtures. Applications of these results in reliability, risk theory, and mixtures of discrete distributions are provided.

We present a necessary and sufficient condition for a stochastic exponential to be a true martingale. It is proved that the criteria for the true martingale property are related to whether a related process explodes. An alternative and interesting interpretation of this result is that the stochastic exponential is a true martingale if and only if under a ‘candidate measure’ the integrand process is square integrable over time. Applications of our theorem to problems arising in mathematical finance are also given.

In bioinformatics, the notion of an ‘island’ enhances the efficient simulation of gapped local alignment statistics. This paper generalizes several results relevant to gapless local alignment statistics from one to higher dimensions, with a particular eye to applications in gapped alignment statistics. For example, reversal of paths (rather than of discrete time) generalizes a distributional equality, from queueing theory, between the Lindley (local sum) and maximum processes. Systematic investigation of an ‘ownership’ relationship among vertices in ℤ2 formalizes the notion of an island as a set of vertices having a common owner. Predictably, islands possess some stochastic ordering and spatial averaging properties. Moreover, however, the average number of vertices in a subcritical stationary island is 1, generalizing a theorem of Kac about stationary point processes. The generalization leads to alternative ways of simulating some island statistics.

Service is often provided in contexts where tasks or customers are impatient or perishable in that they have natural lifetimes of availability for useful service. Moreover, these lifetimes are usually unknown to the service provider. The question of how service might best be allocated to the currently waiting tasks or customers in such a context has been neglected and we propose three simple models. For each model, an index heuristic is developed and is assessed numerically. In all cases studied the heuristic comes close to optimality.

A method is provided for numerical evaluation, with any given accuracy, of the probability that at least p% of the genetic material from an individual's chromosomal segment survives to the next generation. Relevant MAPLE® V codes, for automated implementation of such evaluation, are also provided. The genomic continuum model, with Haldane's model for the crossover process, is assumed.

Branching processes are studied in random environments that are influenced by the population size and approach criticality as the population gets large. Results are applied to the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), which is empirically known to exhibit first exponential and then linear growth of molecule numbers.