This paper is based on works presented at the 2012 Applied Probability Trust Lecture in Sheffield; its main purpose is to survey the recent asymptotic results of Bertoin (2012a) and Bertoin and Uribe Bravo (2012b) about Bernoulli bond percolation on certain large random trees with logarithmic height. We also provide a general criterion for the existence of giant percolation clusters in large trees, which answers a question raised by David Croydon.

In this note we consider the two-dimensional risk model introduced in Avram, Palmowski and Pistorius (2008) with constant interest rate. We derive the integral-differential equations of the Laplace transforms, and asymptotic expressions for the finite-time ruin probabilities with respect to the joint ruin times Tmax(u1,u2) and Tmin(u1,u2) respectively.

Scaling of proposals for Metropolis algorithms is an important practical problem in Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation. Analyses of the random walk Metropolis for high-dimensional targets with specific functional forms have shown that in many cases the optimal scaling is achieved when the acceptance rate is approximately 0.234, but that there are exceptions. We present a general set of sufficient conditions which are invariant to orthonormal transformation of the coordinate axes and which ensure that the limiting optimal acceptance rate is 0.234. The criteria are shown to hold for the joint distribution of successive elements of a stationary pth-order multivariate Markov process.

In this paper we discuss a nondecreasing lower bound for the Poisson cumulative distribution function (CDF) at z standard deviations above the mean λ, where z and λ are parameters. This is important because the normal distribution as an approximation for the Poisson CDF may overestimate or underestimate its value. A sharp nondecreasing lower bound in the form of a step function is constructed. As a corollary of the bound's properties, for a given percent α and parameter λ, the minimal z is obtained such that, for any Poisson random variable with the mean greater or equal to λ, its αth percentile is at most z standard deviations above its mean. For Poisson distributed control parameters, the corollary allows simple policies measuring performance in terms of standard deviations from a benchmark.

Based on pathwise duality constructions, several new results on truncated queues and storage systems of the G/M/1 type are derived by transforming the workload (content) processes into certain ‘dual’ M/G/1-type processes. We consider queueing systems in which (a) any service requirement that would increase the total workload beyond the capacity is truncated so as to keep the associated sojourn time below a certain constant, or (b) new arrivals do not enter the system if they have to wait more than one time unit in line. For these systems, we derive the steady-state distributions of the workload and the numbers of customers present in the systems as well as the distributions of the lengths of busy and idle periods. Moreover, we use the duality approach to study finite capacity storage systems with general state-dependent outflow rates. Here our duality leads to a Markovian finite storage system with state-dependent jump sizes whose content level process can be analyzed using level crossing techniques. We also derive a connection between the steady-state densities of the non-Markovian continuous-time content level process of the G/M/1 finite storage system with state-dependent outflow rule and the corresponding embedded sequence of peak points (local maxima).

We show how to write the solution to the generalized drift Skorokhod problem in one-dimension in terms of the supremum of the solution of a tractable unrestricted integral equation (that is, an integral equation with no boundaries). As an application of our result, we equate the transient distribution of a reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process to the first hitting time distribution of an OU process (that is not reflected). Then, we use this relationship to approximate the transient distribution of the GI/GI/1 + GI queue in conventional heavy traffic and the M/M/N/N queue in a many-server heavy traffic regime.

We consider a class of multifractional processes related to Hermite polynomials. We show that these processes satisfy an invariance principle. To prove the main result of this paper, we use properties of the Hermite polynomials and the multiple Wiener integrals. Because of the multifractionality, we also need to deal with variations of the Hurst index by means of some uniform estimates.

When a discrete-time homogenous Markov chain is observed at time intervals that correspond to its time unit, then the transition probabilities of the chain can be estimated using known maximum likelihood estimators. In this paper we consider a situation when a Markov chain is observed on time intervals with length equal to twice the time unit of the Markov chain. The issue then arises of characterizing probability matrices whose square root(s) are also probability matrices. This characterization is referred to in the literature as the embedding problem for discrete time Markov chains. The probability matrix which has probability root(s) is called embeddable.

In this paper for two-state Markov chains, necessary and sufficient conditions for embeddability are formulated and the probability square roots of the transition matrix are presented in analytic form. In finding conditions for the existence of probability square roots for (k x k) transition matrices, properties of row-normalized matrices are examined. Besides the existence of probability square roots, the uniqueness of these solutions is discussed: In the case of nonuniqueness, a procedure is introduced to identify a transition matrix that takes into account the specificity of the concrete context. In the case of nonexistence of a probability root, the concept of an approximate probability root is introduced as a solution of an optimization problem related to approximate nonnegative matrix factorization.

The problem of detecting an abrupt change in the distribution of an arbitrary, sequentially observed, continuous-path stochastic process is considered and the optimality of the CUSUM test is established with respect to a modified version of Lorden's criterion. We apply this result to the case that a random drift emerges in a fractional Brownian motion and we show that the CUSUM test optimizes Lorden's original criterion when a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H adopts a polynomial drift term with exponent H+1/2.

We derive factorization identities for a class of preemptive-resume queueing systems, with batch arrivals and catastrophes that, whenever they occur, eliminate multiple customers present in the system. These processes are quite general, as they can be used to approximate Lévy processes, diffusion processes, and certain types of growth‒collapse processes; thus, all of the processes mentioned above also satisfy similar factorization identities. In the Lévy case, our identities simplify to both the well-known Wiener‒Hopf factorization, and another interesting factorization of reflected Lévy processes starting at an arbitrary initial state. We also show how the ideas can be used to derive transforms for some well-known state-dependent/inhomogeneous birth‒death processes and diffusion processes.

In this article we investigate the minimal entropy martingale measure for continuous-time Markov chains. The conditions for absence of arbitrage and existence of the minimal entropy martingale measure are discussed. Under this measure, expressions for the transition intensities are obtained. Differential equations for the arbitrage-free price are derived.

In this paper we study nonparametric estimation problems for a class of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). Borovkov and Last (2008) proved a version of Rice's formula for PDMPs, which explains the relation between the stationary density and the level crossing intensity. From a statistical point of view, their result suggests a methodology for estimating the stationary density from observations of a sample path of PDMPs. First, we introduce the local time related to the level crossings and construct the local-time estimator for the stationary density, which is unbiased and uniformly consistent. Secondly, we investigate other estimation problems for the jump intensity and the conditional jump size distribution.

Sharp tail bounds for the sum of d random variables with given marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure have been known since Makarov (1981) and Rüschendorf (1982) for d=2 and, in some examples, for d≥3. Based on a duality result, dual bounds have been introduced in Embrechts and Puccetti (2006b). In the homogeneous case, F1=···=Fn, with monotone density, sharp tail bounds were recently found in Wang and Wang (2011). In this paper we establish the sharpness of the dual bounds in the homogeneous case under general conditions which include, in particular, the case of monotone densities and concave densities. We derive the corresponding optimal couplings and also give an effective method to calculate the sharp bounds.

The critical paths of a max-plus linear system with noise are random variables. In this paper we introduce the edge criticalities which measure how often the critical paths traverse each edge in the precedence graph. We also present the parallel path approximation, a novel method for approximating these new statistics as well as the previously studied max-plus exponent. We show that, for low amplitude noise, the critical paths spend most of their time traversing the deterministic maximally weighted cycle and that, as the noise amplitude is increased, the critical paths become more random and their distribution over the edges in the precedence graph approaches a highly uniform measure of maximal entropy.

We generalize, in terms of power series, the celebrated Geman-Yor formula for the pricing of Asian options in the framework of spectrally negative Lévy-driven assets. We illustrate our result by providing some new examples.

We make a connection between the continuous time and lazy discrete time Markov chains through the comparison of cutoffs and mixing time in total variation distance. For illustration, we consider finite birth and death chains and provide a criterion on cutoffs using eigenvalues of the transition matrix.

We consider a general homogeneous continuous-time Markov process with restarts. The process is forced to restart from a given distribution at time moments generated by an independent Poisson process. The motivation to study such processes comes from modeling human and animal mobility patterns, restart processes in communication protocols, and from application of restarting random walks in information retrieval. We provide a connection between the transition probability functions of the original Markov process and the modified process with restarts. We give closed-form expressions for the invariant probability measure of the modified process. When the process evolves on the Euclidean space, there is also a closed-form expression for the moments of the modified process. We show that the modified process is always positive Harris recurrent and exponentially ergodic with the index equal to (or greater than) the rate of restarts. Finally, we illustrate the general results by the standard and geometric Brownian motions.

There is an extensive academic literature that documents that stocks which have performed well in the past often continue to perform well over some holding period - so-called momentum. We study the optimal timing for an asset sale for an agent with a long position in a momentum trade. The asset price is modelled as a geometric Brownian motion with a drift that initially exceeds the discount rate, but with the opposite relation after an unobservable and exponentially distributed time. The problem of optimal selling of the asset is then formulated as an optimal stopping problem under incomplete information. Based on the observations of the asset, the agent wants to detect the unobservable change point as accurately as possible. Using filtering techniques and stochastic analysis, we reduce the problem to a one-dimensional optimal stopping problem, which we solve explicitly. We also show that the optimal boundary at which the investor should liquidate the trade depends monotonically on the model parameters.

In this paper we study limit theorems for the Feller game which is constructed from one-dimensional simple symmetric random walks, and corresponds to the St. Petersburg game. Motivated by a generalization of the St. Petersburg game which was investigated by Gut (2010), we generalize the Feller game by introducing the parameter α. We investigate limit distributions of the generalized Feller game corresponding to the results of Gut. Firstly, we give the weak law of large numbers for α=1. Moreover, for 0<α≤1, we have convergence in distribution to a stable law with index α. Finally, some limit theorems for a polynomial size and a geometric size deviation are given.

We consider a semimartingale X which is reflected at an upper barrier T and a lower barrier S, where S and T are also semimartingales such that T is bounded away from S. First, we present an explicit construction of the reflected process. Then we derive a relationship in terms of stochastic integrals linking the reflected process and the local times at the respective barriers to X, S, and T. This result reveals the fundamental structural properties of the reflection mechanism. We also present a few results showing how the general relationship simplifies under additional assumptions on X, S, and T, e.g. if we take X, S, and T to be independent martingales (which satisfy some extra technical conditions).