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Queues with time-dependent arrival rates. II — The maximum queue and the return to equilibrium

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

G. F. Newell*
Affiliation:
Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering, University of California, Berkeley

Abstract

During a rush hour, the arrival rate λ(t) of customers to a service facility is assumed to increase to a maximum value exceeding the service rate μ, and then decrease again. In Part I it was shown that, after λ(t) has passed μ, the expected queue E{X(t)} exceeds that given by the deterministic theory by a fixed amount, (0.95)L, which is proportional to the (–1/3) power of a(t) = (t)/dt evaluated at time t = 0 when λ(t) = μ. The maximum of E{X(t)}, therefore, occurs when λ(t) again is equal to μ at time t1 as predicted by deterministic queueing theory, but is larger than given by the deterministic theory by this same constant (0.95)L (provided t1 is sufficiently large). It is shown here that the maximum queue, suptX(t) is, approximately normally distributed with a mean (0.95) (L + L1) larger than predicted by deterministic theory where L, is proportional to the (–1/3) power of a(t1). We also investigate the distribution of X(t) at the end of the rush hour when the queue distribution returns to equilibrium. During the transition, the queue distribution is approximately a mixture of a truncated normal and the equilibrium distributions. These results are applied to a case where λ(t) is quadratic in t.

Type
Research Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1968 

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References

[1] Newell, G. F. (1968) Queues with time-dependent arrival rates. I — The transition through saturation. J. Appl. Prob. 5, 436451.Google Scholar
[2] Cox, D. R. and Miller, H. D. (1965) The Theory of Stochastic Processes. Chapter 5. John Wiley & Sons, New York.Google Scholar