Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T05:53:20.362Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Predicting the benefit of screening for disease

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Neil Dubin
Neil Dubin*
Affiliation:
New York University Medical Center
*
∗Postal address: Institute of Environmental Medicine, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Laboratory, New York University Medical Center, 341 East 25th St., New York, NY10010, U.S.A.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

To evaluate the benefits and risks associated with screening for disease, a model is developed to characterize the changes in incidence and survival distributions effected by a screening program. Screening is presumed to increase survival by resulting in diagnosis of disease at earlier stages. All disease states in the model are observable, thus facilitating application to empirical data. An example of such an application using data from a breast cancer detection project is given for the case of one screening for two-stage disease having Weibull-distributed diagnosis times.

Keywords

BENEFITS AND RISKS OF SCREENINGMATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DISEASEMEASURES OF BENEFITINCIDENCE AND SURVIVAL DISTRIBUTIONSMAMMOGRAPHY
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 18 , Issue 2 , June 1981 , pp. 348 - 360
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Research supported by National Cancer Institute Cancer Center Grant No. CA-16087 and National Cancer Institute Contract No. NCI–CB–74103–34.

References

Bailar, J. C. III. (1976) Mammography: A contrary view. Ann. Internal Medicine 84, 77–84.Google Scholar
Bailar, J. C. III. (1977) Screening for early breast cancer: Pros and cons. Cancer 39, 2783–2795.Google Scholar
Beahrs, O. H., Shapiro, S., Smart, C., and cooperating investigators (1979) Report of the working, group to review the National Cancer Institute-American Cancer Society Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Projects. J. Nat. Cancer Inst. 62, 640–709.Google Scholar
Chiang, C. L. (1968) Introduction to Stochastic Processes in Biostatistics. Wiley, New York.Google Scholar
Dubin, N. (1979a) Mathematical appendix to 'Predicting the benefit of screening for disease. Unpublished manuscript.Google Scholar
Dubin, N. (1979b) Benefits of screening for breast cancer: Application of a probabilistic model to a breast cancer detection project. J. Chronic Diseases 32, 145–151.Google Scholar
Eddy, D. M. (1979) Screening for Cancer: Theory, Analysis, and Design, pp. 277–278. Englewood Cliffs College, Englewood, New Jersey.Google Scholar
Feinleib, M. and Zelen, M. (1969) Some pitfalls in the evaluation of screening programs. Arch. Environmental Health 19, 412–415.Google Scholar
Gail, M. (1975) Measuring the benefit of reduced exposure to environmental carcinogens. J. Chronic Diseases 28, 135–147.Google Scholar
Hutchinson, G. B. and Shapiro, S. (1968) Lead time gained by diagnostic screening for breast cancer. J. Nat. Cancer Inst. 41, 665–681.Google Scholar
Makeham, W. M. (1874) On an application of the theory of the composition of decremental forces. J. Inst. Actuaries 18, 317–322.Google Scholar
Schwartz, M. (1978) An analysis of the benefits of serial screening for breast cancer based upon a mathematical model of the disease. Cancer 41, 1550–1564.Google Scholar
Shapiro, S. (1977) Evidence on screening for breast cancer from a randomized trial. Cancer 39, 2772–2782.Google Scholar
Shapiro, S., Goldberg, J. D. and Hutchinson, G. B. (1974) Lead time in breast cancer detection and implication for periodicity of screening. Amer. J. Epidemiology 100, 357–366.Google Scholar
Shapiro, S., Strax, P., Venet, L. and Venet, W. (1973) Changes in 5-year breast cancer mortality in a breast cancer screening program. 7th National Cancer Conference Proceedings, 663–678.Google Scholar
Zelen, M. and Feinleib, M. (1969) On the theory of screening for chronic diseases. Biometrika 56, 601–614.Google Scholar