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Estimating interannual variability arising from weather events

Part of: Applications

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Xiaogu Zheng  and
James Renwick
Xiaogu Zheng*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
James Renwick*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
*
1Postal address: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 14–901 Kilbirnie, Wellington, New Zealand. Email: [email protected]
1Postal address: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 14–901 Kilbirnie, Wellington, New Zealand. Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

The advantages and limitations of frequency domain and time domain methods for estimating the interannual variability arising from day-to-day weather events are summarized. A modification of the time domain method is developed and its application in examining a precondition for the frequency domain method is demonstrated. A combined estimation procedure is proposed: it takes advantage of the strengths of both methods. The estimation procedures are tested with sets of synthetic data and are applied to long time series of three meteorological parameters. The impacts of the different methods on tests of potential long-range predictability for seasonal means are also discussed.

Keywords

Analysis of variancemeteorologyseasonal means

MSC classification

Secondary: 62P12: Applications to environmental and related topics
Type
Other stochastic models
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 38 , Issue A: Probability, Statistics and Seismology , 2001 , pp. 274 - 288
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 2001 

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