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The deterministic Kermack‒McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 09 December 2016
Abstract
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic susceptible→infected→recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time t>0, a strict lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.
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- Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 2016
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