Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-07T02:06:13.753Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

An optimal isolation policy for an epidemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

Andris Abakuks*
Affiliation:
University of Sussex

Abstract

Policies of isolating infectives in the general stochastic epidemic are considered. With costs assigned to the infection and isolation of individuals, an optimal policy is found, which at any stage minimises the expected future cost. An optimal policy is also found for the general deterministic epidemic and the two policies are compared. Finally, some numerical examples are provided.

Type
Research Papers
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1973 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

[1] Bailey, N. T. J. (1957) The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Griffin, London.Google Scholar
[2] Daniels, H. E. (1967) The distribution of the total size of an epidemic. Proc. 5th. Berkeley Symp. 4, 281293.Google Scholar
[3] Dietz, K. (1967) Epidemics and rumours: a survey. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 130, 505528.Google Scholar
[4] Gani, J. and Jerwood, D. (1972) The cost of a general stochastic epidemic. J. Appl. Prob. 9, 257269.Google Scholar
[5] Jerwood, D. (1971) The cost of epidemics with removals. Research Report 93/DJ2, The Manchester-Sheffield School of Probability and Statistics.Google Scholar
[6] Kendall, D. G. (1956) Deterministic and stochastic epidemics in closed populations. Proc. 3rd Berkeley Symp. 4, 149165.Google Scholar
[7] Whittle, P. (1955) The outcome of a stochastic epidemic — a note on Bailey's paper. Biometrika, 42, 116122.Google Scholar