Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T14:35:58.820Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The challenge of feeding 9–10 billion people equitably and sustainably

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 November 2013

H. C. J. Godfray
H. C. J. Godfray*
Affiliation:
Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, University of Oxford, Department of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
*
Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

The present paper reviews some of the high-level challenges facing the global food system over the next 40 years, drawing in particular on the UK Government's Foresight Report on the ‘Future of Food and Farming’, to set the scene for discussions about the sustainable use of nitrogen in agriculture. It reviews the likely demand and supply pressures on the food system, and the pressing requirements to improve sustainability and address the needs of the world's poorest. It argues that the food system is entering a period of radical change, led particularly by growth in demand, which requires action on food production, diet, waste and efficiency, and governance. A key challenge on the supply side is sustainable intensification – producing more from the same amount of land with fewer and less profound negative effects on the environment. Increasing the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer application will be critical for increasing yields while reducing the many major environmental consequences of leaching and run-off.

Type
Nitrogen Workshop Special Issue Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 152 , Supplement S1: Special Issue from the 17th International Nitrogen Workshop , December 2014 , pp. 2 - 8
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abbott, P. & Borot de Battisti, A. (2011). Recent global food price shocks: causes, consequences and lessons for African governments and donors. Journal of African Economies 20, I12–I62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K. (2010). Globalization's effects on world agricultural trade, 1960–2050. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365, 3007–3021.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bateman, I. J., Mace, G. M., Fezzi, C., Atkinson, G. & Turner, K. (2011). Economic analysis for ecosystem service assessments. Environmental and Resource Economics 48, 177–218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burney, J. A., Davis, S. J. & Lobell, D. B. (2010). Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107, 12052–12057.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Conway, G. (2012). One Billion Hungry, Can We Feed the World. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dawson, C. J. & Hilton, J. (2011). Fertiliser availability in a resource-limited world: production and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus. Food Policy 36, S14–S22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Day, W. (2011). Engineering advances for input reduction and systems management to meet the challenges of global food and farming futures. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 149 (Suppl. 1), 55–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dorward, A. (2011). Getting real about food prices. Development Policy Review 29, 647–664.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dorward, A. & Chirwa, E. (2011). The Malawi agricultural input subsidy programme: 2005/06 to 2008/09. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 9, 232–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunwell, J. M. (2011). Crop biotechnology: prospects and opportunities. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 149 (Suppl. 1), 17–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evenson, R. E. & Gollin, D. (2003). Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000. Science 300, 758–762.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Foresight (2011). The Future of Food and Farming: Challenges and Choices for Global Sustainability. Final Project Report. London: Government Office of Science.Google Scholar
Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S. M. & Toulmin, C. (2010). Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327, 812–818.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gornall, J., Betts, R., Burke, E., Clark, R., Camp, J., Willett, K. & Wiltshire, A. (2010). Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365, 2973–2989.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
HM Government (2010). The 2007/2008 Agricultural Price Spikes: Causes and Policy Implications. London: HM Government.Google Scholar
IAASTD (2008). Agriculture at a Crossroads: Executive Summary of the Synthesis Report. Washington, DC: IIASTD.Google Scholar
International Energy Agency (2012). World Energy Outlook 2012. Paris, France: IEA.Google Scholar
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Google Scholar
Lutz, W. & Samir, K. C. (2010). Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365, 2779–2791.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nelson, G. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Koo, J., Robertson, R., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Palazzo, A., Batka, M., Magalhaes, M., Valmonte-Santos, R., Ewing, M. & Lee, D. (2009). Climate Change : Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation. Washington, DC: IFPRI.Google Scholar
Nelson, G. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Palazzo, A., Gray, I., Ingersoll, C., Robertson, R., Tokgoz, S., Zhu, T., Sulser, T. B., Ringler, C., Msangi, S. & You, L. (2010). Food Security and Climate Change: Challeges to 2050 and Beyond. IFPRI Issue Brief 66. Washington, DC: IFPRI.Google Scholar
Paillard, S., Treyer, S. & Dorin, B. (2009). Agrimonde: Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050. Versailles: Quae.Google Scholar
Phalan, B., Onial, M., Balmford, A. & Green, R. E. (2011). Reconciling food production and biodiversity conservation: land sharing and land sparing compared. Science 333, 1289–1291.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Piesse, J. & Thirtle, C. (2009). Three bubbles and a panic: an explanatory review of recent food commodity price events. Food Policy 34, 119–129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piesse, J. & Thirtle, C. (2010). Agricultural R&D, technology and productivity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365, 3035–3047.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosegrant, M. W., Ringler, C., Msangi, S., Sulser, T. B., Zhu, T. & Cline, S. A. (2008). International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description. Washington, DC: IFPRI.Google Scholar
Royal Society (2009). Reaping the Benefits: Science and the Sustainable Intensification of Global Agriculture. London, UK: Royal Society.Google Scholar
Smil, V. (2001). Feeding the World. A Challenge for the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge, MA: MIT Publications.Google Scholar
Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Strzepek, K. & Boehlert, B. (2010). Competition for water for the food system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 365, 2927–2940.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sutton, M. A., Howard, C. M., Bleeker, A. & Datta, A. (2013). The global nutrient challenge: from science to public engagement. Environmental Development 6, 80–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swinnen, J. & Squicciarini, P. (2012). Mixed messages on prices and food security. Science 335, 405–406.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J. & Befort, B. L. (2011). Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108, 20260–20264.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
United Nations (2009). The Millennium Development Goals Report. New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
Vitousek, P. M., Aber, J. D., Howarth, R. W., Likens, G. E., Matson, P. A., Schindler, D. W., Schlesinger, W. H. & Tilman, D. (1997). Human alteration of the global nitrogen cycle: sources and consequences. Ecological Applications 7, 737–750.Google Scholar
Wiggins, S. & Brooks, J. (2010). The Use of Input Subsidies in Developing Countries. Paris, France: OECD.Google Scholar
World Bank (2008). World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar