Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-17T14:01:24.024Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia: challenges for rainfed crop production

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 January 2013

B. T. KASSIE ,
R. P. RÖTTER ,
H. HENGSDIJK ,
S. ASSENG ,
M. K. VAN ITTERSUM ,
H. KAHILUOTO  and
H. VAN KEULEN
B. T. KASSIE*
Affiliation:
Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute, P.O. Box 527, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
R. P. RÖTTER
Affiliation:
MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland
H. HENGSDIJK
Affiliation:
Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
S. ASSENG
Affiliation:
Departments of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0570, USA
M. K. VAN ITTERSUM
Affiliation:
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
H. KAHILUOTO
Affiliation:
MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Lönnrotinkatu 5, 50100 Mikkeli, Finland
H. VAN KEULEN
Affiliation:
Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
*
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Ethiopia is one of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change on agriculture. The present study aims to understand and characterize agro-climatic variability and changes and associated risks with respect to implications for rainfed crop production in the Central Rift Valley (CRV). Temporal variability and extreme values of selected rainfall and temperature indices were analysed and trends were evaluated using Sen's slope estimator and Mann–Kendall trend test methods. Projected future changes in rainfall and temperature for the 2080s relative to the 1971–90 baseline period were determined based on four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios (SRES, A2 and B1). The analysis for current climate showed that in the short rainy season (March–May), total mean rainfall varies spatially from 178 to 358 mm with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 32–50%. In the main (long) rainy season (June–September), total mean rainfall ranges between 420 and 680 mm with a CV of 15–40%. During the period 1977–2007, total rainfall decreased but not significantly. Also, there was a decrease in the number of rainy days associated with an increase (statistically not significant) in the intensity per rainfall event for the main rainy season, which can have implications for soil and nutrient losses through erosion and run-off. The reduced number of rainy days increased the length of intermediate dry spells by 0·8 days per decade, leading to crop moisture stress during the growing season. There was also a large inter-annual variability in the length of growing season, ranging from 76 to 239 days. The mean annual temperature exhibited a significant warming trend of 0·12–0·54 °C per decade. Projections from GCMs suggest that future annual rainfall will change by +10 to −40% by 2080. Rainfall will increase during November–December (outside the growing season), but will decline during the growing seasons. Also, the length of the growing season is expected to be reduced by 12–35%. The annual mean temperature is expected to increase in the range of 1·4–4·1 °C by 2080. The past and future climate trends, especially in terms of rainfall and its variability, pose major risks to rainfed agriculture. Specific adaptation strategies are needed for the CRV to cope with the risks, sustain farming and improve food security.

Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Papers
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 152 , Issue 1 , February 2014 , pp. 58 - 74
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Alexander, L. V. & Arblaster, J. M. (2009). Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections. International Journal of Climatology 29, 417–435.Google Scholar
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D. & Smith, M. (1998). Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. Rome, Italy: FAO.Google Scholar
Araya, A. & Stroosnijder, L. (2011). Assessing drought risk and irrigation need in northern Ethiopia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 425–436.Google Scholar
Arndt, C., Robinson, S. & Willenbockel, D. (2011). Ethiopia's growth prospects in a changing climate: a stochastic general equilibrium approach. Global Environmental Change 21, 701–710.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barron, J., Rockström, J., Gichuki, F. & Hatibu, N. (2003). Dry spell analysis and maize yields for two semi-arid locations in East Africa. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117, 23–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bewket, W. (2008). Rainfall variability and agricultural vulnerability in the Amhara region, Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Development Research 29, 1–34.Google Scholar
Bewket, W. & Conway, D. (2007). A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 27, 1467–1477.Google Scholar
Boberg, F. & Christensen, J. H. (2012). Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies. Nature Climate Change 2, 433–436.Google Scholar
Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Tabo, R. & Yanda, P. (2007). Africa. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.), pp. 433–467. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Camberlin, P. & Okoola, R. E. (2003). The onset and cessation of the ‘long rains’ in eastern Africa and their interannual variability. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 75, 43–54.Google Scholar
Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P. & Kassam, A. (2007). Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Climatic Change 83, 381–399.Google Scholar
Cheung, W. H., Senay, G. B. & Singh, A. (2008). Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 28, 1723–1734.Google Scholar
Conway, D. (2000). Some aspects of climate variability in the North-East Ethiopian highlands-Wollo and Tigray. Sinet: Ethiopian Journal of Science 23, 139–161.Google Scholar
Conway, D. & Schipper, E. L. F. (2011). Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change 21, 227–237.Google Scholar
Cooper, P. J. M. & Coe, R. (2011). Assessing and addressing climate-induced risk in Sub-Saharan rainfed agriculture. Experimental Agriculture 47, 179–184.Google Scholar
Cooper, P. J. M., Rao, K. P. C., Singh, P., Dimes, J., Traore, P. S., Rao, K., Dixit, P. & Twomlow, S. J. (2009). Farming with current and future climate risk: advancing a ‘Hypothesis of Hope’ for rainfed agriculture in the semi-arid tropics. Journal of SAT Agricultural Research 7, 1–19.Google Scholar
Demeke, A. B., Keil, A. & Zeller, M. (2011). Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia. Climatic Change 108, 185–206.Google Scholar
Diga, G. M. (2005). Using seasonal climate outlook to advise on sorghum production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. PhD Thesis, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa.Google Scholar
Dixit, P. N., Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J. & Rao, K. P. (2011). Adding value to field-based agronomic research through climate risk assessment: a case study of maize production in Kitale, Kenya. Experimental Agriculture 47, 317–338.Google Scholar
Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S. & Tebaldi, C. (2007). Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 27, 1547–1578.Google Scholar
Frere, M. & Popov, G. (1979). Agrometeorological Crop Monitoring and Forecasting. Rome: FAO.Google Scholar
Hellmuth, M. E., Moorhead, A., Thomson, M. C. & Williams, J. (2007). Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. New York: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University.Google Scholar
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. & Jarvis, A. (2005). Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1965–1978.Google Scholar
Hulme, M., Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M. & Lister, D. (2001). African climate change: 1900–2100. Climate Research 17, 145–168.Google Scholar
IPCC (2007). Summary for policy makers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.), pp. 7–22. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jaetzold, R. & Kutsch, H. (1982). Agro-ecological zones of the tropics with a sample from Kenya. Tropenlandwirt 83, 15–34.Google Scholar
Jansen, H., Hengsdijk, H., Legesse, D., Ayenew, T., Hellegers, P. & Spliethoff, P. (2007). Land and Water Resources Assessment in the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley. Alterra Report 1587. Wageningen, The Netherlands: Wageningen UR.Google Scholar
Karaburun, A., Demirci, A. & Kara, F. (2011). Analysis of spatially distributed annual, seasonal and monthly temperatures in Istanbul from 1975 to 2006. World Applied Sciences Journal 12, 1662–1675.Google Scholar
Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods. 4th edn. London: Charles Griffin.Google Scholar
Kizza, M., Rodhe, A., Xu, C. Y., Ntale, H. K. & Halldin, S. (2009). Temporal rainfall variability in the Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa during the twentieth century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 98, 119–135.Google Scholar
Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 13, 245–259.Google Scholar
Martin, R. V., Washington, R. & Downing, T. E. (2000). Seasonal maize forecasting for South Africa and Zimbabwe derived from an agroclimatological model. Journal of Applied Meteorology 39, 1473–1479.Google Scholar
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J. M., Noda, A., Raper, S. C. B., Watterson, I. G., Weaver, A. J. & Zhao, Z. C. (2007). Global climate projections. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Eds Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M. & Miller, H. L.), pp. 747–846. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mitchell, T. D., Carter, T. R., Jones, P. D., Hulme, M. & New, M. (2004). A Comprehensive Set of High-resolution Grids of Monthly Climate for Europe and the Globe: the Observed Record (1901–2000) and 16 Scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55. Norwich, UK: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia.Google Scholar
Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. (2000). Emissions Scenarios: a Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) (2001). Initial National Communication of Ethiopia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: NMSA.Google Scholar
National Meteorological Agency (NMA) (2007). Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia. Technical Report, United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Addis Abeba, Ethiopia: NMA.Google Scholar
Oliver, J. E. (1980). Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Professional Geographer 32, 300–309.Google Scholar
Osman, M. & Sauerborn, P. (2002). A preliminary assessment of characteristics and long term variability of rainfall in Ethiopia–Basis for sustainable land use and resource management. In Challenges to Organic Farming and Sustainable Land Use in the Tropics and Subtropics. Book of Abstracts, Deutscher Tropentag 2002 (Ed. Deininger, A.), p. 122. Witzenhausen, Germany: Kassel University Press.Google Scholar
Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. & Fischer, G. (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14, 53–67.Google Scholar
Perrin, N., Mearns, R., Kononen, M., Kuriakose, A. & Agrawal, A. (2011). Costing Adaptation through Local Institutions. Village Survey Results: Ethiopia. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Rosell, S. (2011). Regional perspective on rainfall change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia, 1978–2007. Applied Geography 31, 329–338.Google Scholar
Segele, Z. T. & Lamb, P. J. (2005). Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89, 153–180.Google Scholar
Seleshi, Y. & Camberlin, P. (2006). Recent changes in dry spell and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 83, 181–191.Google Scholar
Seleshi, Y. & Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 24, 973–983.Google Scholar
Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of regression coefficients based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63, 1379–1389.Google Scholar
Slingo, J. M., Challinor, A. J., Hoskins, B. J. & Wheeler, T. R. (2005). Introduction: food crops in a changing climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London B: Biological Sciences 360, 1983–1989.Google Scholar
Stern, N. H. (2007). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stern, R. D. & Cooper, P. J. M. (2011). Assessing climate risk and climate change using rainfall data – a case study from Zambia. Experimental Agriculture 47, 241–266.Google Scholar
Stern, R. D., Dennett, M. D. & Dale, I. C. (1982). Analysing daily rainfall measurements to give agronomically useful results. I. Direct methods. Experimental Agriculture 18, 223–236.Google Scholar
Stern, R., Rijks, D., Dale, I. & Knock, J. (2006). INSTAT Climatic Guide. Reading, UK: Statistical Services Centre, The University of Reading.Google Scholar
Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Owiyo, T. M., Kruska, R. L., Herrero, M., Kristjanson, P., Notenbaert, A., Bekele, N., Omolo, A., Orindi, V., Otiende, B., Ochieng, A., Bhadwal, S., Anantram, K., Nair, S., Kumar, V. & Kulkar, U. (2006). Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa: Report to the Department for International Development. Nirobi, Kenya: ILRI.Google Scholar
Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J. & Challinor, A. J. (2011). Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369, 117–136.Google Scholar
Trnka, M., Olesen, J. E., Kersebaum, K. C., Skjelvåg, A. O., Eitzinger, J., Seguin, B., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Rötter, R., Iglesias, A., Orlandini, S., Dubrovský, M., Hlavinka, P., Balek, J., Eckersten, H., Cloppet, E., Calanca, P., Gobin, A., Vučetić, V., Nejedlik, P., Kumar, S., Lalic, B., Mestre, A., Rossi, F., Kozyra, J., Alexandrov, V., Semerádová, D. & Žalud, Z. (2011). Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change. Global Change Biology 17, 2298–2318.Google Scholar
Tukey, J. W. (1977). Exploratory Data Analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Van de Steeg, J., Herrero, M., Kinyangi, J., Thornton, P. K., Rao, K. P. C., Stern, R. & Cooper, P. (2009). The Influence of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in East and Central Africa: Sensitizing the ASARECA Strategic Plan to Climate Change. Nairobi, Kenya: International Livestock Research Institute.Google Scholar
Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. (2011). Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, temperature and agricultural drought indices in central Italy. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 301–313.Google Scholar
World Bank (2006). Managing Water Resources to Maximise Sustainable Growth: A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Yengoh, G. T., Armah, F. A., Onumah, E. E. & Odoi, J. O. (2010). Trends in agriculturally relevant rainfall characteristics for small-scale agriculture in northern Ghana. Journal of Agricultural Science, North America 2, Available from: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jas/article/view/5865 (verified 18 May 2012).Google Scholar