Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T08:37:43.599Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Price and Value Effects of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971–1987

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2016

Carl E. Shafer
Carl E. Shafer*
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Price equations incorporating USDA October crop forecasts and June pecan stocks provided reasonable formulations for pecan price explanation and forecasting. USDA crop forecasts exceeded final reported production in 12 of the 18 seasons from 1970 to 1987, probably resulting in slightly lower prices and crop values. Large crop forecast errors in both direction and level in 1986 and 1987 confounded the price determination process. Nevertheless, producer prices may have been lower absent the October crop forecasts, which somewhat reduce buyers' uncertainty regarding supply. Early crop estimates provided a better explanation of price behavior than postseason revised production data.

Keywords

pecan pricescrop forecast errors
Type
Submitted Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 21 , Issue 1 , July 1989 , pp. 97 - 103
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1989

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bushnell, P.G., and King, G.A.. The Domestic and Export Markets for California Almonds. Giannini Res. Report No. 334, Giannini Foundation of Agr. Econ., University of California, September 1986.Google Scholar
Epperson, J.E., and Allison, J.R.. “Price Futures for the United States Pecan Industry.” Hort science, 15 (1980):475–478.Google Scholar
Fowler, M.L. Analysis of Early-Season Pecan Production Forecasts. Proc. Series P-440, Dept. of Agr. Econ., Oklahoma State University, 1963a.Google Scholar
Fowler, M.L. Factors Affecting Pecan Prices and Price Relationship in the United States. Tech. Bull. T-100, Oklahoma Experiment Station, May 1963b.Google Scholar
Fox, K.A. The Analysis of Demand for Farm Products. Tech. Bull. No. 1081, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington D.C., 1953.Google Scholar
Huang, B.W., Conway, R.K., and Peacock, B.J.. “A Brief Overview of the U.S. Pecan.Industry.” Fruit Outlook and Situation. TFS-229, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington D.C., November 1983.Google Scholar
Loyns, R. “An Economic Analysis of the Marketing Order for California Almonds.” Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, Berkeley, 1968.Google Scholar
Milonas, N.T. “The Effect of USDA Crop Announcements on Commodity Prices.” J. Futures Markets, 7 (1987):571–589.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shafer, C.E., and Hertel, K.. A Statistical Analysis of Pecan Prices 1960-1977, urith Storage Considerations. Dept. Tech. Rept. DTR81-5, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, June 1981.Google Scholar
Thorne, J.T., and Frazier, T.L.. Market Structure and Pricing System of Georgia In-Shell Pecans. Res. Bull. 62, Georgia Agr. Exp. Station, Athens, Georgia, August 1968.Google Scholar
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Crop Production. SRS, CRB, Washington, D.C., October issues, various years, a.Google Scholar