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Price and Value Effects of Pecan Crop Forecasts, 1971–1987

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2016

Carl E. Shafer
Carl E. Shafer*
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
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Abstract

Price equations incorporating USDA October crop forecasts and June pecan stocks provided reasonable formulations for pecan price explanation and forecasting. USDA crop forecasts exceeded final reported production in 12 of the 18 seasons from 1970 to 1987, probably resulting in slightly lower prices and crop values. Large crop forecast errors in both direction and level in 1986 and 1987 confounded the price determination process. Nevertheless, producer prices may have been lower absent the October crop forecasts, which somewhat reduce buyers' uncertainty regarding supply. Early crop estimates provided a better explanation of price behavior than postseason revised production data.

Keywords

pecan pricescrop forecast errors
Type
Submitted Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 21 , Issue 1 , July 1989 , pp. 97 - 103
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1989

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