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Management of Intensive Forage-Beef Production Under Yield Uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 September 2016

C. Arden Pope III  and
C. Richard Shumway
C. Arden Pope III
Affiliation:
Agricultural Economics Department, Brigham Young University
C. Richard Shumway
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A & M University
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Abstract

Forage production variability is incorporated into a decision theory framework for a beef producer in East Texas. The results suggest that the least risky, and also the most profitable, approach to intensive forage beef production is to plan for relatively poor weather conditions and low forage production. This results in a more diverse forage system and a smaller herd size than would be found optimal under the assumption of constant average forage production. These results also demonstrate that the assumption of constant average forage production may result in grossly exaggerated estimates of expected net returns.

Keywords

production uncertaintydecision theorybeefforage
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics , Volume 16 , Issue 2 , December 1984 , pp. 37 - 44
Copyright
Copyright © Southern Agricultural Economics Association 1984

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